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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.28 % 11.52 % 19.95 % 6.35 % 6.93 % 2.96 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 143,880 31,713 54,900 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,080 31,713 54,900 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,080 31,713 27,450 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,080 15,857 27,450 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,080 15,857 18,300 17,488 19,066 8,157 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 13,080 15,857 18,300 17,488 9,533 8,157 0
6th divisor 11 2 4 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,080 15,857 13,725 17,488 9,533 8,157 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,080 15,857 13,725 8,744 9,533 8,157 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,080 10,571 13,725 8,744 9,533 8,157 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Conservative Ross Thomson
6 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 11,080 ↑1022 48.53 % ↑8.54
Labour Lewis Macdonald 6,256 ↓3185 27.40 % ↓10.14
Conservative Tom Mason 4,012 ↑912 17.57 % ↑5.24
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 1,482 ↓867 6.49 % ↓2.85
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,824 Swing: ↑9.34%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 16,292 ↑1502 64.77 % ↑9.50
Labour Greg Williams 5,046 ↓2569 20.06 % ↓8.40
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,803 ↑637 11.14 % ↑3.05
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 💸 1,013 ↓593 4.03 % ↓1.97
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,246 Swing: ↑8.95%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 13,160 ↑1213 52.04 % ↑10.34
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 5,252 ↑1194 20.77 % ↑6.61
Labour Alison Evison 3,727 ↓1897 14.74 % ↓4.89
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 3,150 ↓1844 12.46 % ↓4.97
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,908 Swing: ↑1.86%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 21,517 ↑1984 69.04 % ↑4.54
Conservative Colin Clark 5,450 ↑1239 17.49 % ↑3.59
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 2,673 ↓1565 8.58 % ↓5.41
Labour Sarah Flavell 💸 1,527 ↓777 4.90 % ↓2.71
SNP HOLD Majority: 16,067 Swing: ↑0.48%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 13,424 ↑1238 48.16 % ↑5.61
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 7,801 ↑1774 27.99 % ↑6.94
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 🎢 5,092 ↓2982 18.27 % ↓9.93
Labour Sarah Duncan 1,556 ↓793 5.58 % ↓2.62
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,623 Swing: ↓0.66%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 15,047 ↑1387 56.83 % ↑2.01
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 8,250 ↑1876 31.15 % ↑5.57
Labour John Ruddy 2,094 ↓1066 7.91 % ↓4.77
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 💸 1,089 ↓637 4.11 % ↓2.82
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,797 Swing: ↓1.78%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 17,806 ↑1642 63.51 % ↑5.04
Conservative Kirstene Hair 7,223 ↑1642 25.77 % ↑5.58
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,454 ↓1249 8.75 % ↓4.65
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 551 ↓323 1.97 % ↓1.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,583 Swing: ↓0.27%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 18,519 ↑1707 69.06 % ↑1.82
Conservative Peter Chapman 5,943 ↑1351 22.16 % ↑3.79
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,751 ↓891 6.53 % ↓4.04
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 604 ↓354 2.25 % ↓1.58
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,576 Swing: ↓0.99%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 18,221 ↑1680 70.32 % ↑6.09
Labour Richard McCready 3,884 ↓1978 14.99 % ↓7.77
Conservative Bill Bowman 3,300 ↑750 12.74 % ↑2.84
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 505 ↓295 1.95 % ↓1.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,337 Swing: ↑6.93%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 15,520 ↑1431 66.37 % ↑8.77
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 5,092 ↓2592 21.77 % ↓9.64
Conservative Nicola Ross 2,103 ↑478 8.99 % ↑2.35
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 670 ↓393 2.87 % ↓1.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,428 Swing: ↑9.21%