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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.58 % 17.72 % 27.51 % 5.05 % 5.43 % 3.71 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 116,812 51,006 79,189 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,469 51,006 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,469 25,503 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,469 17,002 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 16,687 17,002 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
5th divisor 7 4 5 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 16,687 12,752 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
6th divisor 8 4 5 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 14,602 12,752 15,838 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
7th divisor 8 4 6 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 14,602 12,752 13,198 14,523 15,636 10,679 0
8th divisor 8 4 6 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 14,602 12,752 13,198 14,523 7,818 10,679 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Labour Colin Smyth
5 SNP Emma Harper
6 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
7 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 16,822 ↑3825 47.36 % ↑8.42
SNP Jennifer Dunn 13,091 ↑1207 36.86 % ↑1.25
Labour Brian McGinley 5,155 ↓2624 14.51 % ↓8.80
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 450 ↓263 1.27 % ↓0.87
Conservative HOLD Majority: 3,731 Swing: ↑3.58%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 14,596 ↑1346 53.19 % ↑7.03
Labour Carol Mochan 7,069 ↓3600 25.76 % ↓11.41
Conservative Lee Lyons 5,384 ↑1224 19.62 % ↑5.13
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 394 ↓230 1.43 % ↓0.74
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,527 Swing: ↑9.22%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 16,096 ↑1484 56.03 % ↑7.22
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 6,889 ↓3507 23.98 % ↓10.75
Conservative Alex Allison 5,141 ↑1169 17.89 % ↑4.62
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 604 ↓353 2.10 % ↓1.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,207 Swing: ↑8.98%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 12,254 ↑2786 39.85 % ↑10.17
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 9,235 ↑851 30.04 % ↑3.75
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 8,365 ↓4259 27.20 % ↓12.38
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 895 ↓524 2.91 % ↓1.54
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,019 Swing: ↑3.21%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 13,643 ↑1258 45.37 % ↑6.88
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 8,307 ↓4229 27.62 % ↓11.34
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 🎢 6,917 ↑1573 23.00 % ↑6.39
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 💸 1,206 ↓706 4.01 % ↓1.93
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,336 Swing: ↑9.11%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 16,739 ↑3806 55.36 % ↑10.48
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,371 ↑772 27.68 % ↑1.31
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 3,147 ↓1843 10.41 % ↓6.91
Labour Barrie Cunning 1,979 ↓1007 6.54 % ↓3.82
Conservative HOLD Majority: 8,368 Swing: ↑4.58%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 14,329 ↑3258 45.74 % ↑8.83
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 11,246 ↑1037 35.90 % ↑1.87
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 5,270 ↓2684 16.82 % ↓9.70
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 481 ↓282 1.54 % ↓1.00
Conservative HOLD Majority: 3,083 Swing: ↑3.48%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 18,687 ↑1723 61.01 % ↑7.76
Labour Dave Meechan 7,270 ↓3701 23.74 % ↓10.70
Conservative Brian Whittle 4,283 ↑974 13.98 % ↑3.59
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 387 ↓227 1.26 % ↓0.67
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,417 Swing: ↑9.23%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 15,262 ↑1407 52.16 % ↑8.65
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 5,633 ↓3298 19.25 % ↓8.80
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,844 ↑1101 16.56 % ↑4.80
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,520 ↓1792 12.03 % ↓4.65
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,629 Swing: ↑8.73%