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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 12th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 12th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑4.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑4.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓2.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑4.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.41 % 24.76 % 19.42 % 3.26 % 5.71 % 2.44 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 119,915 66,854 52,444 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,992 66,854 26,222 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,992 33,427 26,222 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,992 22,285 26,222 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,992 22,285 17,481 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,992 16,714 17,481 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,992 16,714 13,111 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,992 13,371 13,111 8,801 15,415 6,586 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,992 13,371 13,111 8,801 7,708 6,586 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Labour Ken Macintosh
7 Green Ross Greer

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 13,525 ↑1247 52.27 % ↑8.99
Labour Gail Casey 7,663 ↓3901 29.61 % ↓11.15
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,570 ↑812 13.80 % ↑4.08
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 💸 1,116 ↓653 4.31 % ↓1.93
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,862 Swing: ↑10.07%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 17,117 ↑1578 59.19 % ↑6.58
Labour Johanna Baxter 6,243 ↓3179 21.59 % ↓10.31
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 5,218 ↑1186 18.04 % ↑4.39
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 342 ↓201 1.18 % ↓0.66
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,874 Swing: ↑8.45%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 12,109 ↑1116 58.77 % ↑8.93
Labour Joe Cullinane 5,728 ↓2917 27.80 % ↓11.40
Conservative William McClure 2,422 ↑551 11.75 % ↑3.27
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 345 ↓202 1.67 % ↓0.81
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,381 Swing: ↑10.16%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 12,032 ↑1109 47.58 % ↑9.26
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 8,324 ↓4238 32.91 % ↓11.15
Conservative Maurice Corry 4,394 ↑999 17.37 % ↑5.46
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 541 ↓317 2.14 % ↓0.87
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,708 Swing: ↑10.21%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 13,784 ↑3134 44.08 % ↑10.72
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 8,567 ↑790 27.40 % ↑3.04
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 8,390 ↓4272 26.83 % ↓12.83
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 527 ↓308 1.68 % ↓0.94
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,217 Swing: ↑3.84%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 13,082 ↑1206 52.09 % ↑9.99
Labour Siobhan McCready 8,208 ↓4179 32.68 % ↓11.23
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,603 ↑592 10.36 % ↑3.23
Liberal Democrat John Watson 💸 1,220 ↓714 4.86 % ↓2.00
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,874 Swing: ↑10.61%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 12,021 ↑1108 52.04 % ↑9.39
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 7,067 ↓3598 30.59 % ↓11.09
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,885 ↑656 12.49 % ↑3.78
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 💸 1,125 ↓658 4.87 % ↓2.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,954 Swing: ↑10.24%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 12,679 ↑1169 47.45 % ↑5.59
Conservative David Wilson 7,104 ↑1615 26.59 % ↑6.63
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 6,590 ↓3356 24.66 % ↓11.51
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 347 ↓203 1.30 % ↓0.70
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,575 Swing: ↓0.52%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 11,408 ↑1052 47.15 % ↑8.66
Labour Paul O'Kane 8,570 ↓4363 35.42 % ↓12.64
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,775 ↑858 15.60 % ↑4.76
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 443 ↓259 1.83 % ↓0.78
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,838 Swing: ↑10.65%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 15,706 ↑1448 50.11 % ↑7.87
Labour Margaret McCarthy 8,254 ↓4202 26.33 % ↓10.57
Conservative Andrew Polson 5,744 ↑1306 18.33 % ↑5.18
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 1,640 ↓960 5.23 % ↓2.47
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,452 Swing: ↑9.22%