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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on your predicted vote shares.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Your prediction

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑8.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓11.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑1.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓2.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓8.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑4.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 67 ↓2 53 65 ↑12 16 2 ↓14
Labour 37 23 ↓14 15 ↓15 22 23 ↑1
Conservative 15 19 ↑4 3 5 ↑2 12 14 ↑2
Green 2 12 ↑10 1 ↑1 2 11 ↑9
Lib Dem 5 6 ↑1 2 2 3 4 ↑1
UKIP 2 ↑2 2 ↑2
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Orkney Islands Liberal Democrat 139 HOLD over SNP
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative 591 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 653 HOLD over Green
Ayr Conservative 815 HOLD over SNP
Dumfriesshire Conservative 919 GAIN over SNP
Edinburgh Central Green 952 GAIN over SNP
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 2,462 HOLD over Conservative
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 2,591 HOLD over SNP
Eastwood Conservative 3,000 GAIN over SNP
Glasgow Provan SNP 3,134 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Central Labour Conservative 455 912
Lothian Green Labour 321 962
South Labour Conservative 269 1,347
Mid Scotland and Fife Lib Dem UKIP 1,860 1,860
Highlands and Islands Green SNP 245 1,960
North East Labour Conservative 1,297 5,188
West Labour Conservative 2,723 10,891
Glasgow Labour Labour Same party would win the next seat