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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 6th April 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑10.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑1.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓5.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑2.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑1.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 72 ↑3 53 70 ↑17 16 2 ↓14
Labour 37 28 ↓9 15 ↓15 22 28 ↑6
Conservative 15 17 ↑2 3 2 ↓1 12 15 ↑3
Green 2 7 ↑5 2 7 ↑5
Lib Dem 5 5 2 1 ↓1 3 4 ↑1
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Dumfriesshire SNP 132 GAIN over Conservative
Orkney Islands SNP 318 GAIN over Liberal Democrat
Ayr SNP 644 GAIN over Conservative
Galloway & West Dumfries SNP 654 GAIN over Conservative
Edinburgh Central SNP 1,463 HOLD over Green
Eastwood Conservative 1,892 GAIN over SNP
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 1,978 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 3,082 HOLD over Green
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 3,634 HOLD over Conservative
Glasgow Provan SNP 3,801 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Glasgow Labour Green 256 512
West Labour Conservative 210 632
Lothian Labour Lib Dem 782 782
South Conservative Green 862 862
Highlands and Islands Labour SNP 242 2,175
Central SNP Labour 584 3,504
Mid Scotland and Fife Labour Conservative 2,447 7,341
North East Conservative SNP 1,589 17,476