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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 6th April 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑10.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑1.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓5.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑2.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑1.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.79 % 30.07 % 8.24 % 1.75 % 4.71 % 0.63 % 1.80 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 115,588 65,849 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,559 65,849 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,559 32,925 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,559 21,950 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
4th divisor 10 4 1 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,559 16,462 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,559 16,462 9,027 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,559 13,170 9,027 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
7th divisor 10 6 2 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,559 10,975 9,027 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
8th divisor 11 6 2 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,508 10,975 9,027 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Labour Mark Griffin
4 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Labour Craig Martin
7 SNP Sophia Coyle

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.53 % 29.27 % 7.77 % 3.08 % 11.45 % 0.62 % 3.29 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 88,734 58,320 15,479 6,133 22,816 1,233 6,556
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,873 58,320 15,479 6,133 22,816 1,233 6,556
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,873 29,160 15,479 6,133 22,816 1,233 6,556
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,873 19,440 15,479 6,133 22,816 1,233 6,556
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,873 19,440 15,479 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
5th divisor 10 4 1 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,873 14,580 15,479 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,873 14,580 7,740 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,873 11,664 7,740 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 8,873 9,720 7,740 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Labour James Kelly
5 Conservative Adam Tomkins
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Labour Bill Butler

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 49.19 % 11.19 % 13.70 % 13.58 % 9.00 % 2.00 % 1.33 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 90,840 20,670 25,306 25,086 16,627 3,701 2,450
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,355 20,670 25,306 12,543 16,627 3,701 2,450
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,355 20,670 12,653 12,543 16,627 3,701 2,450
3rd divisor 8 2 2 2 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,355 10,335 12,653 12,543 16,627 3,701 2,450
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,355 10,335 12,653 12,543 8,314 3,701 2,450
5th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,355 10,335 8,435 12,543 8,314 3,701 2,450
6th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,355 10,335 8,435 8,362 8,314 3,701 2,450
7th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,093 10,335 8,435 8,362 8,314 3,701 2,450
8th divisor 9 3 3 3 2 1 1
8th allocation 10,093 6,890 8,435 8,362 8,314 3,701 2,450
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Green John Finnie
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone
6 SNP Maree Todd
7 Labour David Stewart

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.31 % 20.12 % 14.32 % 6.43 % 14.07 % 0.71 % 2.03 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 118,462 56,334 40,090 17,996 39,398 2,000 5,695
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,846 56,334 40,090 17,996 39,398 2,000 5,695
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,846 28,167 40,090 17,996 39,398 2,000 5,695
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,846 28,167 20,045 17,996 39,398 2,000 5,695
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,846 28,167 20,045 17,996 19,699 2,000 5,695
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,846 18,778 20,045 17,996 19,699 2,000 5,695
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,846 18,778 13,363 17,996 19,699 2,000 5,695
7th divisor 10 3 3 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 11,846 18,778 13,363 17,996 13,133 2,000 5,695
8th divisor 10 4 3 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,846 14,084 13,363 17,996 13,133 2,000 5,695
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Green Andy Wightman
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 47.01 % 19.47 % 16.70 % 6.58 % 7.54 % 1.18 % 1.51 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 124,588 51,605 44,265 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,459 51,605 44,265 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,459 25,803 44,265 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,459 25,803 22,133 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,459 17,202 22,133 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,459 17,202 14,755 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,459 17,202 14,755 17,436 9,998 3,115 4,015
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,459 17,202 14,755 8,718 9,998 3,115 4,015
8th divisor 10 4 3 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,459 12,901 14,755 8,718 9,998 3,115 4,015
Party Candidate
1 Labour Alex Rowley
2 Conservative Murdo Fraser
3 Labour Claire Baker
4 Conservative Liz Smith
5 Green Mark Ruskell
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Labour Thomas Docherty

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 53.82 % 12.55 % 16.39 % 7.52 % 6.83 % 0.97 % 1.92 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 150,275 35,051 45,750 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,661 35,051 45,750 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,661 35,051 22,875 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,661 17,526 22,875 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,661 17,526 15,250 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
5th divisor 11 2 3 2 1 1 1
5th allocation 13,661 17,526 15,250 10,493 19,066 2,719 5,367
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,661 17,526 15,250 10,493 9,533 2,719 5,367
7th divisor 11 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,661 11,684 15,250 10,493 9,533 2,719 5,367
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,661 11,684 11,438 10,493 9,533 2,719 5,367
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
5 Green Maggie Chapman
6 Labour Lewis MacDonald
7 Conservative Ross Thomson

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.91 % 19.83 % 23.21 % 6.13 % 5.50 % 1.25 % 1.18 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 122,004 56,375 65,991 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
1st divisor 9 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,556 56,375 32,996 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
2nd divisor 9 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,556 28,188 32,996 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
3rd divisor 9 2 3 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,556 28,188 21,997 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
4th divisor 9 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,556 18,792 21,997 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
5th divisor 9 3 4 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 13,556 18,792 16,498 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
6th divisor 9 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 13,556 14,094 16,498 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
7th divisor 9 4 4 2 1 1 1
7th allocation 13,556 14,094 16,498 8,714 15,636 3,560 3,355
8th divisor 9 4 5 2 1 1 1
8th allocation 13,556 14,094 13,198 8,714 15,636 3,560 3,355
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Conservative John Scott
3 Labour Claudia Beamish
4 Conservative Oliver Mundell
5 Labour Colin Smyth
6 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
7 Conservative Rachael Hamilton

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.82 % 26.44 % 15.64 % 3.78 % 5.52 % 0.79 % 3.02 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 125,245 73,891 43,703 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,525 73,891 21,852 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,525 36,946 21,852 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,525 24,630 21,852 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
4th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,525 18,473 21,852 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,525 18,473 14,568 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
6th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 12,525 14,778 14,568 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
7th divisor 10 5 3 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,525 14,778 14,568 10,561 7,708 2,195 8,434
8th divisor 10 6 3 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,525 12,315 14,568 10,561 7,708 2,195 8,434
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Labour Mary Fee
4 Conservative Jamie Greene
5 Labour Ken Macintosh
6 Green Ross Greer
7 Labour Johanna Baxter