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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 6th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑10.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑1.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓5.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑2.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑1.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.79 % 30.07 % 8.24 % 1.75 % 4.71 % 0.63 % 1.80 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 115,588 65,849 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,559 65,849 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,559 32,925 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,559 21,950 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
4th divisor 10 4 1 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,559 16,462 18,054 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,559 16,462 9,027 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,559 13,170 9,027 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
7th divisor 10 6 2 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,559 10,975 9,027 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
8th divisor 11 6 2 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,508 10,975 9,027 3,831 10,322 1,386 3,947
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Labour Mark Griffin
4 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Labour Craig Martin
7 SNP Sophia Coyle

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 14,785 ↑2801 65.20 % ↑15.05
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 5,985 ↓3998 26.39 % ↓15.39
Conservative Eric Holford 1,506 ↑110 6.64 % ↑0.80
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 402 ↓129 1.77 % ↓0.45
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,800 Swing: ↑15.22%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 11,406 ↑2161 54.04 % ↑14.33
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 7,151 ↓4777 33.88 % ↓17.36
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,411 ↑103 6.68 % ↑1.06
Green John Wilson 💸 📃 909 ↑413 4.31 % ↑2.18
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 229 ↓73 1.08 % ↓0.22
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,255 Swing: ↑15.84%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 16,773 ↑3178 68.81 % ↑14.98
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 6,077 ↓4059 24.93 % ↓15.21
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,247 ↑91 5.12 % ↑0.54
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 278 ↓89 1.14 % ↓0.31
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,696 Swing: ↑15.10%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 17,715 ↑3356 63.39 % ↑15.38
Labour LizAnne Handibode 7,440 ↓4970 26.62 % ↓14.87
Conservative Graham Simpson 2,438 ↑178 8.72 % ↑1.16
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 354 ↓114 1.27 % ↓0.29
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,275 Swing: ↑15.12%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 17,645 ↑3343 64.85 % ↑14.08
Labour Craig Martin 🎢 6,455 ↓4312 23.72 % ↓14.50
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 2,558 ↑186 9.40 % ↑0.98
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 550 ↓177 2.02 % ↓0.56
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,190 Swing: ↑14.29%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 19,255 ↑3648 69.00 % ↑13.65
Labour Mandy Telford 5,912 ↓3950 21.19 % ↓13.78
Conservative Alison Harris 2,250 ↑164 8.06 % ↑0.66
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 487 ↓157 1.75 % ↓0.53
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,343 Swing: ↑13.71%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 15,054 ↑2852 62.06 % ↑13.93
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 5,989 ↓4000 24.69 % ↓14.71
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 2,747 ↑200 11.33 % ↑1.28
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 466 ↓150 1.92 % ↓0.51
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,065 Swing: ↑14.32%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 12,493 ↑2367 59.25 % ↑17.84
Labour John Pentland 🛋 6,423 ↓4290 30.46 % ↓13.35
Conservative Megan Gallacher 1,891 ↑138 8.97 % ↑1.80
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 278 ↓89 1.32 % ↓0.18
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,070 Swing: ↑15.59%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 13,345 ↑2528 58.17 % ↑14.89
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 6,913 ↓4618 30.13 % ↓16.00
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,283 ↑166 9.95 % ↑1.48
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 401 ↓129 1.75 % ↓0.37
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,432 Swing: ↑15.45%