Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
TNS, 6th April 2016
These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
Glasgow: full results
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 44.53 % | 29.27 % | 7.77 % | 3.08 % | 11.45 % | 0.62 % | 3.29 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 88,734 | 58,320 | 15,479 | 6,133 | 22,816 | 1,233 | 6,556 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 8,873 | 58,320 | 15,479 | 6,133 | 22,816 | 1,233 | 6,556 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 8,873 | 29,160 | 15,479 | 6,133 | 22,816 | 1,233 | 6,556 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 8,873 | 19,440 | 15,479 | 6,133 | 22,816 | 1,233 | 6,556 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 8,873 | 19,440 | 15,479 | 6,133 | 11,408 | 1,233 | 6,556 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 8,873 | 14,580 | 15,479 | 6,133 | 11,408 | 1,233 | 6,556 |
6th divisor | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 8,873 | 14,580 | 7,740 | 6,133 | 11,408 | 1,233 | 6,556 |
7th divisor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 8,873 | 11,664 | 7,740 | 6,133 | 11,408 | 1,233 | 6,556 |
8th divisor | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 8,873 | 9,720 | 7,740 | 6,133 | 11,408 | 1,233 | 6,556 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Anas Sarwar |
2 | Labour | Johann Lamont |
3 | Green | Patrick Harvie |
4 | Labour | James Kelly |
5 | Conservative | Adam Tomkins |
6 | Labour | Pauline McNeill |
7 | Labour | Bill Butler |
Constituencies in Glasgow region
Glasgow Anniesland
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Bill Kidd 🛋 | 12,743 | ↑2414 | 58.30 % | ↑15.11 |
Labour | Bill Butler 🎢 | 6,188 | ↓4134 | 28.31 % | ↓14.85 |
Conservative | Adam Tomkins 🎢 | 2,169 | ↑158 | 9.92 % | ↑1.51 |
Liberal Democrat | James Spiers 💸 | 757 | ↓243 | 3.46 % | ↓0.72 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 6,555 | Swing: | ↑14.98% |
Glasgow Cathcart
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | James Dornan 🛋 | 14,704 | ↑2786 | 60.41 % | ↑14.96 |
Labour | Soryia Siddique | 6,191 | ↓4135 | 25.43 % | ↓13.95 |
Conservative | Kyle Thornton | 2,599 | ↑189 | 10.68 % | ↑1.49 |
Liberal Democrat | Margot Clark 💸 | 846 | ↓272 | 3.48 % | ↓0.78 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 8,513 | Swing: | ↑14.46% |
Glasgow Kelvin
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Sandra White 🛋 | 11,200 | ↑2122 | 41.91 % | ↑4.31 |
Green | Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 | 8,118 | ↑3687 | 30.37 % | ↑12.02 |
Labour | Michael Shanks | 4,601 | ↓3074 | 17.22 % | ↓14.57 |
Conservative | Sheila Mechan | 1,904 | ↑139 | 7.12 % | ↓0.19 |
Liberal Democrat | Carole Ford 💸 | 904 | ↓290 | 3.38 % | ↓1.57 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 3,082 | Swing: | ↓3.85% |
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Bob Doris 📃 | 10,600 | ↑2008 | 57.38 % | ↑15.53 |
Labour | Patricia Ferguson 🛋 | 5,926 | ↓3958 | 32.08 % | ↓16.06 |
Conservative | John Anderson | 1,318 | ↑96 | 7.13 % | ↑1.18 |
Liberal Democrat | James Harrison 💸 | 630 | ↓203 | 3.41 % | ↓0.65 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 4,674 | Swing: | ↑15.79% |
Glasgow Pollok
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Humza Yousaf 📃 | 12,648 | ↑2396 | 60.41 % | ↑15.67 |
Labour | Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 | 6,520 | ↓4355 | 31.14 % | ↓16.32 |
Conservative | Thomas Haddow | 1,400 | ↑102 | 6.69 % | ↑1.03 |
Liberal Democrat | Isabel Nelson 💸 | 371 | ↓119 | 1.77 % | ↓0.37 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 6,128 | Swing: | ↑16.00% |
Glasgow Provan
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Ivan McKee | 9,818 | ↑1860 | 57.80 % | ↑16.32 |
Labour | Paul Martin 🛋 | 6,017 | ↓4020 | 35.43 % | ↓16.89 |
Conservative | Annie Wells 💸 | 838 | ↑61 | 4.93 % | ↑0.88 |
Liberal Democrat | Thomas Coleman 💸 | 313 | ↓100 | 1.84 % | ↓0.31 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 3,801 | Swing: | ↑16.61% |
Glasgow Shettleston
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | John Mason 🛋 | 12,495 | ↑2367 | 63.26 % | ↑15.50 |
Labour | Thomas Rannachan | 5,721 | ↓3821 | 28.96 % | ↓16.04 |
Conservative | Thomas Kerr | 1,254 | ↑91 | 6.35 % | ↑0.87 |
Liberal Democrat | Giovanni Caccavello 💸 | 281 | ↓90 | 1.42 % | ↓0.33 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 6,774 | Swing: | ↑15.77% |
Glasgow Southside
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 | 15,183 | ↑2877 | 68.13 % | ↑13.70 |
Labour | Fariha Thomas | 4,770 | ↓3187 | 21.41 % | ↓13.79 |
Conservative | Graham Hutchison | 1,869 | ↑136 | 8.39 % | ↑0.72 |
Liberal Democrat | Kevin Lewsey 💸 | 463 | ↓149 | 2.08 % | ↓0.63 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 10,413 | Swing: | ↑13.74% |
Rutherglen
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Clare Haughey | 13,213 | ↑2503 | 55.40 % | ↑15.88 |
Labour | James Kelly 🛋 🎢 | 7,487 | ↓5002 | 31.39 % | ↓14.69 |
Conservative | Taylor Muir | 2,261 | ↑165 | 9.48 % | ↑1.75 |
Liberal Democrat | Robert Brown 💸 | 889 | ↓285 | 3.73 % | ↓0.60 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 5,726 | Swing: | ↑15.29% |