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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 6th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑10.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑1.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓5.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑2.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑1.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.53 % 29.27 % 7.77 % 3.08 % 11.45 % 0.62 % 3.29 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 88,734 58,320 15,479 6,133 22,816 1,233 6,556
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,873 58,320 15,479 6,133 22,816 1,233 6,556
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,873 29,160 15,479 6,133 22,816 1,233 6,556
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,873 19,440 15,479 6,133 22,816 1,233 6,556
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,873 19,440 15,479 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
5th divisor 10 4 1 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,873 14,580 15,479 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,873 14,580 7,740 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,873 11,664 7,740 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 8,873 9,720 7,740 6,133 11,408 1,233 6,556
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Labour James Kelly
5 Conservative Adam Tomkins
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Labour Bill Butler

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 12,743 ↑2414 58.30 % ↑15.11
Labour Bill Butler 🎢 6,188 ↓4134 28.31 % ↓14.85
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,169 ↑158 9.92 % ↑1.51
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 757 ↓243 3.46 % ↓0.72
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,555 Swing: ↑14.98%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 14,704 ↑2786 60.41 % ↑14.96
Labour Soryia Siddique 6,191 ↓4135 25.43 % ↓13.95
Conservative Kyle Thornton 2,599 ↑189 10.68 % ↑1.49
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 846 ↓272 3.48 % ↓0.78
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,513 Swing: ↑14.46%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 11,200 ↑2122 41.91 % ↑4.31
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 8,118 ↑3687 30.37 % ↑12.02
Labour Michael Shanks 4,601 ↓3074 17.22 % ↓14.57
Conservative Sheila Mechan 1,904 ↑139 7.12 % ↓0.19
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 904 ↓290 3.38 % ↓1.57
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,082 Swing: ↓3.85%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 10,600 ↑2008 57.38 % ↑15.53
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 5,926 ↓3958 32.08 % ↓16.06
Conservative John Anderson 1,318 ↑96 7.13 % ↑1.18
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 630 ↓203 3.41 % ↓0.65
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,674 Swing: ↑15.79%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 12,648 ↑2396 60.41 % ↑15.67
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 6,520 ↓4355 31.14 % ↓16.32
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,400 ↑102 6.69 % ↑1.03
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 371 ↓119 1.77 % ↓0.37
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,128 Swing: ↑16.00%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 9,818 ↑1860 57.80 % ↑16.32
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 6,017 ↓4020 35.43 % ↓16.89
Conservative Annie Wells 💸 838 ↑61 4.93 % ↑0.88
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 313 ↓100 1.84 % ↓0.31
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,801 Swing: ↑16.61%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 12,495 ↑2367 63.26 % ↑15.50
Labour Thomas Rannachan 5,721 ↓3821 28.96 % ↓16.04
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,254 ↑91 6.35 % ↑0.87
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 281 ↓90 1.42 % ↓0.33
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,774 Swing: ↑15.77%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 15,183 ↑2877 68.13 % ↑13.70
Labour Fariha Thomas 4,770 ↓3187 21.41 % ↓13.79
Conservative Graham Hutchison 1,869 ↑136 8.39 % ↑0.72
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 463 ↓149 2.08 % ↓0.63
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,413 Swing: ↑13.74%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 13,213 ↑2503 55.40 % ↑15.88
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 7,487 ↓5002 31.39 % ↓14.69
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,261 ↑165 9.48 % ↑1.75
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 889 ↓285 3.73 % ↓0.60
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,726 Swing: ↑15.29%