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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 6th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑10.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑1.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓5.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑2.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑1.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.31 % 20.12 % 14.32 % 6.43 % 14.07 % 0.71 % 2.03 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 118,462 56,334 40,090 17,996 39,398 2,000 5,695
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,846 56,334 40,090 17,996 39,398 2,000 5,695
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,846 28,167 40,090 17,996 39,398 2,000 5,695
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,846 28,167 20,045 17,996 39,398 2,000 5,695
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,846 28,167 20,045 17,996 19,699 2,000 5,695
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,846 18,778 20,045 17,996 19,699 2,000 5,695
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,846 18,778 13,363 17,996 19,699 2,000 5,695
7th divisor 10 3 3 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 11,846 18,778 13,363 17,996 13,133 2,000 5,695
8th divisor 10 4 3 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,846 14,084 13,363 17,996 13,133 2,000 5,695
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Green Andy Wightman
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 20,609 ↑3905 69.08 % ↑14.74
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 6,692 ↓4470 22.43 % ↓13.88
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,034 ↑148 6.82 % ↑0.68
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 497 ↓159 1.66 % ↓0.47
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,917 Swing: ↑14.31%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alison Dickie 9,733 ↑1844 31.57 % ↑4.38
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 🎢 8,270 ↑3756 26.82 % ↑11.26
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 4,609 ↑336 14.95 % ↑0.22
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 🎢 4,269 ↓2852 13.85 % ↓10.69
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 3,949 ↓1268 12.81 % ↓5.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 1,463 Swing: ↓3.44%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 17,954 ↑3402 61.69 % ↑14.33
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 7,385 ↓4934 25.37 % ↓14.72
Conservative Nick Cook 2,837 ↑207 9.75 % ↑1.19
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 929 ↓298 3.19 % ↓0.80
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,569 Swing: ↑14.53%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 15,129 ↑2866 53.76 % ↑14.05
Labour Lesley Hinds 7,709 ↓5149 27.39 % ↓14.24
Conservative Iain McGill 3,158 ↑230 11.22 % ↑1.74
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 2,146 ↓690 7.63 % ↓1.55
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 7,420 Swing: ↑14.14%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 13,814 ↑2617 46.26 % ↑9.00
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 10,180 ↑741 34.09 % ↑2.68
Labour Blair Heary 4,792 ↓3201 16.05 % ↓10.55
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 1,075 ↓345 3.60 % ↓1.13
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,634 Swing: ↑3.16%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 12,272 ↑2325 39.72 % ↑10.29
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 6,793 ↑495 21.99 % ↑3.35
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 6,280 ↓2017 20.33 % ↓4.22
Labour Daniel Johnston 5,548 ↓3706 17.96 % ↓9.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,479 Swing: ↑3.47%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 14,762 ↑2797 46.83 % ↑11.06
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 7,021 ↓2255 22.27 % ↓5.46
Conservative Sandy Batho 5,443 ↑396 17.27 % ↑2.18
Labour Cat Headley 4,295 ↓2869 13.63 % ↓7.79
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,741 Swing: ↑8.26%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 21,007 ↑3980 64.87 % ↑15.06
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 7,755 ↓5181 23.95 % ↓13.89
Conservative Charles Kennedy 2,854 ↑208 8.81 % ↑1.07
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 768 ↓247 2.37 % ↓0.60
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,252 Swing: ↑14.48%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 17,370 ↑3291 62.70 % ↑15.48
Labour Bernard Harkins 6,644 ↓4439 23.98 % ↓13.19
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 2,741 ↑200 9.89 % ↑1.37
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 949 ↓305 3.43 % ↓0.78
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,726 Swing: ↑14.34%