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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 6th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑10.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑1.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓5.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑2.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑1.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 47.01 % 19.47 % 16.70 % 6.58 % 7.54 % 1.18 % 1.51 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 124,588 51,605 44,265 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,459 51,605 44,265 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,459 25,803 44,265 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,459 25,803 22,133 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,459 17,202 22,133 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,459 17,202 14,755 17,436 19,995 3,115 4,015
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,459 17,202 14,755 17,436 9,998 3,115 4,015
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,459 17,202 14,755 8,718 9,998 3,115 4,015
8th divisor 10 4 3 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,459 12,901 14,755 8,718 9,998 3,115 4,015
Party Candidate
1 Labour Alex Rowley
2 Conservative Murdo Fraser
3 Labour Claire Baker
4 Conservative Liz Smith
5 Green Mark Ruskell
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Labour Thomas Docherty

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 16,351 ↑3098 61.29 % ↑12.95
Labour Craig Miller 5,782 ↓3862 21.67 % ↓13.51
Conservative Alexander Stewart 3,776 ↑275 14.15 % ↑1.38
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 770 ↓248 2.89 % ↓0.82
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,569 Swing: ↑13.23%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 13,175 ↑2496 57.25 % ↑15.65
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 7,150 ↓4776 31.07 % ↓15.39
Conservative Dave Dempsey 1,933 ↑141 8.40 % ↑1.42
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 755 ↓242 3.28 % ↓0.60
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,025 Swing: ↑15.52%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 13,584 ↑2574 51.34 % ↑13.76
Labour Cara Hilton 6,247 ↓4173 23.61 % ↓11.95
Liberal Democrat James Calder 4,372 ↓1404 16.52 % ↓3.19
Conservative James Reekie 2,257 ↑164 8.53 % ↑1.39
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,337 Swing: ↑12.86%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 15,519 ↑2940 60.30 % ↑15.06
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 7,432 ↓4965 28.88 % ↓15.71
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,165 ↑158 8.41 % ↑1.19
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 621 ↓199 2.41 % ↓0.54
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,087 Swing: ↑15.39%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 16,978 ↑3217 67.91 % ↑15.61
Labour Kay Morrison 5,739 ↓3834 22.95 % ↓13.43
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 1,808 ↑132 7.23 % ↑0.86
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 477 ↓153 1.91 % ↓0.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,239 Swing: ↑14.52%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 13,607 ↑2578 48.22 % ↑11.06
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 🎢 6,386 ↓2051 22.63 % ↓5.80
Conservative Huw Bell 6,059 ↑441 21.47 % ↑2.54
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,166 ↓1447 7.68 % ↓4.49
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,221 Swing: ↑8.43%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 22,478 ↑4259 67.16 % ↑6.33
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 8,484 ↑618 25.35 % ↓0.91
Labour Anna McEwan 💸 1,602 ↓1070 4.79 % ↓4.13
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 905 ↓291 2.70 % ↓1.29
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,994 Swing: ↑3.62%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 19,830 ↑3757 59.14 % ↑7.65
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 9,607 ↑700 28.65 % ↑0.12
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,386 ↓1594 7.12 % ↓5.63
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 1,707 ↓549 5.09 % ↓2.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,223 Swing: ↑3.77%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 18,331 ↑3473 61.53 % ↑12.66
Labour Rebecca Bell 5,508 ↓3680 18.49 % ↓11.73
Conservative Dean Lockhart 4,972 ↑362 16.69 % ↑1.53
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 981 ↓315 3.29 % ↓0.97
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,823 Swing: ↑12.20%