Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
TNS, 6th April 2016
These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
Mid Scotland and Fife: full results
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 47.01 % | 19.47 % | 16.70 % | 6.58 % | 7.54 % | 1.18 % | 1.51 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 124,588 | 51,605 | 44,265 | 17,436 | 19,995 | 3,115 | 4,015 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 12,459 | 51,605 | 44,265 | 17,436 | 19,995 | 3,115 | 4,015 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 12,459 | 25,803 | 44,265 | 17,436 | 19,995 | 3,115 | 4,015 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 12,459 | 25,803 | 22,133 | 17,436 | 19,995 | 3,115 | 4,015 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 12,459 | 17,202 | 22,133 | 17,436 | 19,995 | 3,115 | 4,015 |
5th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 12,459 | 17,202 | 14,755 | 17,436 | 19,995 | 3,115 | 4,015 |
6th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 12,459 | 17,202 | 14,755 | 17,436 | 9,998 | 3,115 | 4,015 |
7th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 12,459 | 17,202 | 14,755 | 8,718 | 9,998 | 3,115 | 4,015 |
8th divisor | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 12,459 | 12,901 | 14,755 | 8,718 | 9,998 | 3,115 | 4,015 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Alex Rowley |
2 | Conservative | Murdo Fraser |
3 | Labour | Claire Baker |
4 | Conservative | Liz Smith |
5 | Green | Mark Ruskell |
6 | Liberal Democrat | Willie Rennie |
7 | Labour | Thomas Docherty |
Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Keith Brown 🛋 | 16,351 | ↑3098 | 61.29 % | ↑12.95 |
Labour | Craig Miller | 5,782 | ↓3862 | 21.67 % | ↓13.51 |
Conservative | Alexander Stewart | 3,776 | ↑275 | 14.15 % | ↑1.38 |
Liberal Democrat | Christopher McKinlay 💸 | 770 | ↓248 | 2.89 % | ↓0.82 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 10,569 | Swing: | ↑13.23% |
Cowdenbeath
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Annabelle Ewing 📃 | 13,175 | ↑2496 | 57.25 % | ↑15.65 |
Labour | Alex Rowley 🎢 | 7,150 | ↓4776 | 31.07 % | ↓15.39 |
Conservative | Dave Dempsey | 1,933 | ↑141 | 8.40 % | ↑1.42 |
Liberal Democrat | Bryn Jones 💸 | 755 | ↓242 | 3.28 % | ↓0.60 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 6,025 | Swing: | ↑15.52% |
Dunfermline
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Shirley-Anne Somerville | 13,584 | ↑2574 | 51.34 % | ↑13.76 |
Labour | Cara Hilton | 6,247 | ↓4173 | 23.61 % | ↓11.95 |
Liberal Democrat | James Calder | 4,372 | ↓1404 | 16.52 % | ↓3.19 |
Conservative | James Reekie | 2,257 | ↑164 | 8.53 % | ↑1.39 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 7,337 | Swing: | ↑12.86% |
Kirkcaldy
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | David Torrance 🛋 | 15,519 | ↑2940 | 60.30 % | ↑15.06 |
Labour | Claire Baker 🎢 | 7,432 | ↓4965 | 28.88 % | ↓15.71 |
Conservative | Martin Laidlaw | 2,165 | ↑158 | 8.41 % | ↑1.19 |
Liberal Democrat | Lauren Jones 💸 | 621 | ↓199 | 2.41 % | ↓0.54 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 8,087 | Swing: | ↑15.39% |
Mid Fife & Glenrothes
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Jenny Gilruth | 16,978 | ↑3217 | 67.91 % | ↑15.61 |
Labour | Kay Morrison | 5,739 | ↓3834 | 22.95 % | ↓13.43 |
Conservative | Alex Stewart-Clark | 1,808 | ↑132 | 7.23 % | ↑0.86 |
Liberal Democrat | Jane-Ann Liston 💸 | 477 | ↓153 | 1.91 % | ↓0.48 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 11,239 | Swing: | ↑14.52% |
North East Fife
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Rod Campbell | 13,607 | ↑2578 | 48.22 % | ↑11.06 |
Liberal Democrat | Willie Rennie 📃 🎢 | 6,386 | ↓2051 | 22.63 % | ↓5.80 |
Conservative | Huw Bell | 6,059 | ↑441 | 21.47 % | ↑2.54 |
Labour | Rosalind Garton | 2,166 | ↓1447 | 7.68 % | ↓4.49 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 7,221 | Swing: | ↑8.43% |
Perthshire North
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | John Swinney 🛋 | 22,478 | ↑4259 | 67.16 % | ↑6.33 |
Conservative | Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 | 8,484 | ↑618 | 25.35 % | ↓0.91 |
Labour | Anna McEwan 💸 | 1,602 | ↓1070 | 4.79 % | ↓4.13 |
Liberal Democrat | Peter Barrett 💸 | 905 | ↓291 | 2.70 % | ↓1.29 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 13,994 | Swing: | ↑3.62% |
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 | 19,830 | ↑3757 | 59.14 % | ↑7.65 |
Conservative | Liz Smith 🎢 | 9,607 | ↑700 | 28.65 % | ↑0.12 |
Labour | Scott Nicholson | 2,386 | ↓1594 | 7.12 % | ↓5.63 |
Liberal Democrat | Willie Robertson | 1,707 | ↓549 | 5.09 % | ↓2.14 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 10,223 | Swing: | ↑3.77% |
Stirling
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Bruce Crawford 🛋 | 18,331 | ↑3473 | 61.53 % | ↑12.66 |
Labour | Rebecca Bell | 5,508 | ↓3680 | 18.49 % | ↓11.73 |
Conservative | Dean Lockhart | 4,972 | ↑362 | 16.69 % | ↑1.53 |
Liberal Democrat | Elisabeth Wilson 💸 | 981 | ↓315 | 3.29 % | ↓0.97 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 12,823 | Swing: | ↑12.20% |