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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 6th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑10.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑1.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓5.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑2.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑1.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 53.82 % 12.55 % 16.39 % 7.52 % 6.83 % 0.97 % 1.92 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 150,275 35,051 45,750 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,661 35,051 45,750 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,661 35,051 22,875 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,661 17,526 22,875 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,661 17,526 15,250 20,986 19,066 2,719 5,367
5th divisor 11 2 3 2 1 1 1
5th allocation 13,661 17,526 15,250 10,493 19,066 2,719 5,367
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,661 17,526 15,250 10,493 9,533 2,719 5,367
7th divisor 11 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,661 11,684 15,250 10,493 9,533 2,719 5,367
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,661 11,684 11,438 10,493 9,533 2,719 5,367
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
5 Green Maggie Chapman
6 Labour Lewis MacDonald
7 Conservative Ross Thomson

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 12,409 ↑2351 53.51 % ↑13.52
Labour Lewis Macdonald 5,660 ↓3781 24.41 % ↓13.13
Conservative Tom Mason 3,344 ↑244 14.42 % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 1,778 ↓571 7.67 % ↓1.67
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,749 Swing: ↑13.32%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 18,247 ↑3457 69.21 % ↑13.94
Labour Greg Williams 4,565 ↓3050 17.32 % ↓11.14
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,336 ↑170 8.86 % ↑0.77
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 💸 1,216 ↓390 4.61 % ↓1.39
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,682 Swing: ↑12.54%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 14,740 ↑2793 56.11 % ↑14.41
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 4,377 ↑319 16.66 % ↑2.50
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 3,780 ↓1214 14.39 % ↓3.04
Labour Alison Evison 3,372 ↓2252 12.84 % ↓6.79
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,363 Swing: ↑5.96%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 24,099 ↑4566 72.52 % ↑8.02
Conservative Colin Clark 4,542 ↑331 13.67 % ↓0.23
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 3,208 ↓1030 9.65 % ↓4.34
Labour Sarah Flavell 💸 1,381 ↓923 4.16 % ↓3.45
SNP HOLD Majority: 19,557 Swing: ↑4.12%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 15,034 ↑2848 51.75 % ↑9.20
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 6,500 ↑473 22.37 % ↑1.32
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 🎢 6,111 ↓1963 21.03 % ↓7.17
Labour Sarah Duncan 💸 1,408 ↓941 4.85 % ↓3.35
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,534 Swing: ↑3.94%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 16,853 ↑3193 62.59 % ↑7.77
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 6,875 ↑501 25.53 % ↓0.05
Labour John Ruddy 1,894 ↓1266 7.04 % ↓5.64
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 💸 1,306 ↓420 4.85 % ↓2.08
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,978 Swing: ↑3.91%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 19,942 ↑3778 69.14 % ↑10.67
Conservative Kirstene Hair 6,019 ↑438 20.87 % ↑0.68
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,220 ↓1483 7.70 % ↓5.70
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 662 ↓212 2.29 % ↓0.87
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,923 Swing: ↑5.00%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 20,742 ↑3930 74.07 % ↑6.83
Conservative Peter Chapman 4,953 ↑361 17.69 % ↓0.68
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,584 ↓1058 5.66 % ↓4.91
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 725 ↓233 2.59 % ↓1.24
SNP HOLD Majority: 15,789 Swing: ↑3.75%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 20,407 ↑3866 74.82 % ↑10.59
Labour Richard McCready 3,514 ↓2348 12.88 % ↓9.88
Conservative Bill Bowman 2,750 ↑200 10.08 % ↑0.18
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 605 ↓195 2.22 % ↓0.89
SNP HOLD Majority: 16,893 Swing: ↑10.23%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 17,382 ↑3293 70.81 % ↑13.21
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 4,607 ↓3077 18.77 % ↓12.64
Conservative Nicola Ross 1,753 ↑128 7.14 % ↑0.50
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 805 ↓258 3.28 % ↓1.07
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,775 Swing: ↑12.93%