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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 6th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑10.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑1.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓5.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑2.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑1.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.91 % 19.83 % 23.21 % 6.13 % 5.50 % 1.25 % 1.18 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 122,004 56,375 65,991 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
1st divisor 9 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,556 56,375 32,996 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
2nd divisor 9 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,556 28,188 32,996 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
3rd divisor 9 2 3 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,556 28,188 21,997 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
4th divisor 9 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,556 18,792 21,997 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
5th divisor 9 3 4 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 13,556 18,792 16,498 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
6th divisor 9 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 13,556 14,094 16,498 17,428 15,636 3,560 3,355
7th divisor 9 4 4 2 1 1 1
7th allocation 13,556 14,094 16,498 8,714 15,636 3,560 3,355
8th divisor 9 4 5 2 1 1 1
8th allocation 13,556 14,094 13,198 8,714 15,636 3,560 3,355
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Conservative John Scott
3 Labour Claudia Beamish
4 Conservative Oliver Mundell
5 Labour Colin Smyth
6 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
7 Conservative Rachael Hamilton

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jennifer Dunn 14,662 ↑2778 43.27 % ↑7.66
Conservative John Scott 🛋 🎢 14,018 ↑1021 41.37 % ↑2.43
Labour Brian McGinley 4,664 ↓3115 13.76 % ↓9.55
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 540 ↓173 1.59 % ↓0.55
SNP GAIN from Conservative Majority: 644 Swing: ↑2.62%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 16,347 ↑3097 59.01 % ↑12.85
Labour Carol Mochan 6,396 ↓4273 23.09 % ↓14.08
Conservative Lee Lyons 4,487 ↑327 16.20 % ↑1.71
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 472 ↓152 1.70 % ↓0.47
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,951 Swing: ↑13.46%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 18,028 ↑3416 61.59 % ↑12.78
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 6,233 ↓4163 21.29 % ↓13.44
Conservative Alex Allison 4,284 ↑312 14.64 % ↑1.37
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 724 ↓233 2.47 % ↓0.73
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,795 Swing: ↑13.11%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 10,344 ↑1960 35.43 % ↑9.14
Conservative Oliver Mundell 🎢 10,212 ↑744 34.97 % ↑5.29
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 7,568 ↓5056 25.92 % ↓13.66
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,074 ↓345 3.68 % ↓0.77
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 132 Swing: ↑1.93%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 15,280 ↑2895 50.92 % ↑12.43
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 7,515 ↓5021 25.05 % ↓13.91
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 🎢 5,764 ↑420 19.21 % ↑2.60
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 💸 1,447 ↓465 4.82 % ↓1.12
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 7,765 Swing: ↑13.17%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 13,949 ↑1016 48.28 % ↑3.40
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 9,375 ↑1776 32.45 % ↑6.08
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 🎢 3,777 ↓1213 13.07 % ↓4.25
Labour Barrie Cunning 1,790 ↓1196 6.20 % ↓4.16
Conservative HOLD Majority: 4,574 Swing: ↓1.34%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 12,595 ↑2386 42.15 % ↑8.12
Conservative Finlay Carson 11,941 ↑870 39.96 % ↑3.05
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 4,769 ↓3185 15.96 % ↓10.56
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 577 ↓186 1.93 % ↓0.61
SNP GAIN from Conservative Majority: 654 Swing: ↑2.53%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 20,929 ↑3965 66.36 % ↑13.11
Labour Dave Meechan 6,577 ↓4394 20.85 % ↓13.59
Conservative Brian Whittle 3,569 ↑260 11.32 % ↑0.93
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 465 ↓149 1.47 % ↓0.46
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,352 Swing: ↑13.35%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 17,094 ↑3239 55.01 % ↑11.50
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 6,760 ↓2171 21.75 % ↓6.30
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,037 ↑294 12.99 % ↑1.23
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,185 ↓2127 10.25 % ↓6.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,334 Swing: ↑8.90%