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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 6th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by TNS and published on 6th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑10.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓12.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑1.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓5.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑2.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑0.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑1.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.82 % 26.44 % 15.64 % 3.78 % 5.52 % 0.79 % 3.02 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 125,245 73,891 43,703 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,525 73,891 21,852 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,525 36,946 21,852 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,525 24,630 21,852 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
4th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,525 18,473 21,852 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,525 18,473 14,568 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
6th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 12,525 14,778 14,568 10,561 15,415 2,195 8,434
7th divisor 10 5 3 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,525 14,778 14,568 10,561 7,708 2,195 8,434
8th divisor 10 6 3 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,525 12,315 14,568 10,561 7,708 2,195 8,434
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Labour Mary Fee
4 Conservative Jamie Greene
5 Labour Ken Macintosh
6 Green Ross Greer
7 Labour Johanna Baxter

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 15,148 ↑2870 57.39 % ↑14.11
Labour Gail Casey 6,933 ↓4631 26.27 % ↓14.49
Conservative Maurice Golden 2,975 ↑217 11.27 % ↑1.55
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,339 ↓430 5.07 % ↓1.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,215 Swing: ↑14.30%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 19,171 ↑3632 64.81 % ↑12.20
Labour Johanna Baxter 🎢 5,649 ↓3773 19.10 % ↓12.80
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 4,349 ↑317 14.70 % ↑1.05
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 411 ↓132 1.39 % ↓0.45
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,522 Swing: ↑12.50%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 13,563 ↑2570 64.04 % ↑14.20
Labour Joe Cullinane 5,183 ↓3462 24.47 % ↓14.73
Conservative William McClure 2,018 ↑147 9.53 % ↑1.05
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 414 ↓133 1.95 % ↓0.53
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,380 Swing: ↑14.46%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 13,476 ↑2553 53.23 % ↑14.91
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 7,531 ↓5031 29.75 % ↓14.31
Conservative Maurice Corry 3,662 ↑267 14.46 % ↑2.55
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 649 ↓209 2.56 % ↓0.45
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,945 Swing: ↑14.61%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 11,487 ↑837 39.20 % ↑5.84
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 9,595 ↑1818 32.74 % ↑8.38
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 7,591 ↓5071 25.90 % ↓13.76
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 632 ↓203 2.16 % ↓0.46
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,892 Swing: ↓1.27%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 14,652 ↑2776 56.99 % ↑14.89
Labour Siobhan McCready 7,426 ↓4961 28.88 % ↓15.03
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,169 ↑158 8.44 % ↑1.31
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,464 ↓470 5.69 % ↓1.17
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 7,226 Swing: ↑14.96%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 13,464 ↑2551 57.02 % ↑14.37
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 6,394 ↓4271 27.08 % ↓14.60
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,404 ↑175 10.18 % ↑1.47
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,349 ↓434 5.72 % ↓1.25
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,070 Swing: ↑14.48%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 14,200 ↑2690 53.59 % ↑11.73
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 5,963 ↓3983 22.50 % ↓13.67
Conservative David Wilson 5,920 ↑431 22.34 % ↑2.38
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 416 ↓134 1.57 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,237 Swing: ↑12.70%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 12,777 ↑2421 52.78 % ↑14.29
Labour Paul O'Kane 7,753 ↓5180 32.03 % ↓16.03
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,146 ↑229 13.00 % ↑2.16
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 531 ↓171 2.19 % ↓0.42
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,024 Swing: ↑15.16%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 17,591 ↑3333 55.29 % ↑13.05
Labour Margaret McCarthy 7,468 ↓4988 23.47 % ↓13.43
Conservative Andrew Polson 4,787 ↑349 15.05 % ↑1.90
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 1,968 ↓632 6.19 % ↓1.51
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,123 Swing: ↑13.24%