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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 28th April 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑0.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 70 ↑1 53 66 ↑13 16 4 ↓12
Labour 37 29 ↓8 15 ↓15 22 29 ↑7
Conservative 15 20 ↑5 3 5 ↑2 12 15 ↑3
Green 2 7 ↑5 2 7 ↑5
Lib Dem 5 3 ↓2 2 2 3 1 ↓2
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Orkney Islands Liberal Democrat 229 HOLD over SNP
Edinburgh Central SNP 768 HOLD over Green
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 1,290 HOLD over Conservative
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative 1,837 HOLD over SNP
Dumfriesshire Conservative 1,968 GAIN over SNP
Glasgow Provan SNP 2,150 GAIN over Labour
Ayr Conservative 2,272 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 2,282 HOLD over Green
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 2,311 GAIN over Labour
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 2,641 HOLD over SNP

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
West Labour Green 67 67
Glasgow Labour Green 811 1,623
Highlands and Islands Labour Conservative 704 2,114
Mid Scotland and Fife Conservative Lib Dem 3,176 3,176
South Green Labour 871 3,485
Central Labour SNP 430 4,305
Lothian Labour Conservative 3,636 10,908
North East Lib Dem Conservative 3,763 15,052