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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 28th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑0.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 51.51 % 32.11 % 10.08 % 1.49 % 4.80 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 110,669 68,984 21,665 3,192 10,322 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,067 68,984 21,665 3,192 10,322 0 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,067 34,492 21,665 3,192 10,322 0 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,067 22,995 21,665 3,192 10,322 0 0
4th divisor 10 4 1 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,067 17,246 21,665 3,192 10,322 0 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,067 17,246 10,833 3,192 10,322 0 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,067 13,797 10,833 3,192 10,322 0 0
7th divisor 10 6 2 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,067 11,497 10,833 3,192 10,322 0 0
8th divisor 10 7 2 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 11,067 9,855 10,833 3,192 10,322 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Labour Mark Griffin
4 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Labour Craig Martin
7 Labour Margaret McCulloch

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 13,729 ↑1745 60.13 % ↑9.98
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 6,930 ↓3053 30.35 % ↓11.43
Conservative Eric Holford 1,706 ↑310 7.47 % ↑1.63
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 469 ↓62 2.05 % ↓0.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,799 Swing: ↑10.71%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 10,591 ↑1346 48.93 % ↑9.22
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 8,280 ↓3648 38.25 % ↓12.99
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,599 ↑291 7.39 % ↑1.77
Green John Wilson 💸 📃 909 ↑413 4.20 % ↑2.07
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 267 ↓35 1.23 % ↓0.07
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,311 Swing: ↑11.11%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 15,575 ↑1980 63.97 % ↑10.14
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 7,036 ↓3100 28.90 % ↓11.24
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,413 ↑257 5.80 % ↑1.22
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 324 ↓43 1.33 % ↓0.12
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,539 Swing: ↑10.69%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 16,450 ↑2091 58.25 % ↑10.24
Labour LizAnne Handibode 8,615 ↓3795 30.50 % ↓10.99
Conservative Graham Simpson 2,763 ↑503 9.78 % ↑2.22
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 413 ↓55 1.46 % ↓0.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,835 Swing: ↑10.62%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 16,385 ↑2083 59.80 % ↑9.03
Labour Craig Martin 🎢 7,474 ↓3293 27.28 % ↓10.94
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 2,899 ↑527 10.58 % ↑2.16
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 642 ↓85 2.34 % ↓0.24
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,911 Swing: ↑9.98%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 17,880 ↑2273 64.21 % ↑8.86
Labour Mandy Telford 6,846 ↓3016 24.59 % ↓10.38
Conservative Alison Harris 2,550 ↑464 9.16 % ↑1.76
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 569 ↓75 2.04 % ↓0.24
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,034 Swing: ↑9.62%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 13,979 ↑1777 56.89 % ↑8.76
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 🎢 6,934 ↓3055 28.22 % ↓11.18
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 3,113 ↑566 12.67 % ↑2.62
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 544 ↓72 2.21 % ↓0.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,045 Swing: ↑9.97%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 11,601 ↑1475 53.94 % ↑12.53
Labour John Pentland 🛋 7,437 ↓3276 34.58 % ↓9.23
Conservative Megan Gallacher 2,143 ↑390 9.96 % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 324 ↓43 1.51 % ↑0.01
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,164 Swing: ↑10.88%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 12,392 ↑1575 52.84 % ↑9.56
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 8,004 ↓3527 34.13 % ↓12.00
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,588 ↑471 11.03 % ↑2.56
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 468 ↓62 2.00 % ↓0.12
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,388 Swing: ↑10.78%