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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 28th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑0.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.12 % 31.73 % 9.65 % 2.65 % 11.85 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 84,958 61,097 18,575 5,110 22,816 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,496 61,097 18,575 5,110 22,816 0 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,496 30,549 18,575 5,110 22,816 0 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,496 20,366 18,575 5,110 22,816 0 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,496 20,366 18,575 5,110 11,408 0 0
5th divisor 10 4 1 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,496 15,274 18,575 5,110 11,408 0 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,496 15,274 9,288 5,110 11,408 0 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,496 12,219 9,288 5,110 11,408 0 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 8,496 10,183 9,288 5,110 11,408 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Labour James Kelly
5 Conservative Adam Tomkins
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Labour Bill Butler

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 11,833 ↑1504 52.97 % ↑9.78
Labour Bill Butler 🎢 7,165 ↓3157 32.07 % ↓11.09
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,458 ↑447 11.00 % ↑2.59
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 883 ↓117 3.95 % ↓0.23
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,668 Swing: ↑10.43%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 13,654 ↑1736 55.15 % ↑9.70
Labour Soryia Siddique 7,168 ↓3158 28.96 % ↓10.42
Conservative Kyle Thornton 2,946 ↑536 11.90 % ↑2.71
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 987 ↓131 3.99 % ↓0.27
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,486 Swing: ↑10.06%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 10,400 ↑1322 38.44 % ↑0.84
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 8,118 ↑3687 30.00 % ↑11.65
Labour Michael Shanks 5,328 ↓2347 19.69 % ↓12.10
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,157 ↑392 7.97 % ↑0.66
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 1,054 ↓140 3.90 % ↓1.05
SNP HOLD Majority: 2,282 Swing: ↓5.41%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 9,843 ↑1251 51.99 % ↑10.14
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 6,861 ↓3023 36.24 % ↓11.90
Conservative John Anderson 1,494 ↑272 7.89 % ↑1.94
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 736 ↓97 3.88 % ↓0.18
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,982 Swing: ↑11.02%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 11,745 ↑1493 55.10 % ↑10.36
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 7,549 ↓3326 35.42 % ↓12.04
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,587 ↑289 7.44 % ↑1.78
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 433 ↓57 2.03 % ↓0.11
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,196 Swing: ↑11.20%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 9,117 ↑1159 52.40 % ↑10.92
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 6,967 ↓3070 40.04 % ↓12.28
Conservative Annie Wells 950 ↑173 5.46 % ↑1.41
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 365 ↓48 2.10 % ↓0.05
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,150 Swing: ↑11.60%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 11,603 ↑1475 58.08 % ↑10.32
Labour Thomas Rannachan 6,624 ↓2918 33.16 % ↓11.84
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,422 ↑259 7.12 % ↑1.64
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 328 ↓43 1.64 % ↓0.11
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,979 Swing: ↑11.08%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 14,098 ↑1792 63.28 % ↑8.85
Labour Fariha Thomas 5,524 ↓2433 24.79 % ↓10.41
Conservative Graham Hutchison 2,118 ↑385 9.51 % ↑1.84
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 540 ↓72 2.43 % ↓0.28
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,574 Swing: ↑9.63%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 12,270 ↑1560 50.00 % ↑10.48
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 8,670 ↓3819 35.33 % ↓10.75
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,562 ↑466 10.44 % ↑2.71
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 1,037 ↓137 4.22 % ↓0.11
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,600 Swing: ↑10.62%