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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 28th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑0.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 49.27 % 12.27 % 17.20 % 11.84 % 9.42 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 6 2
Votes 86,975 21,654 30,368 20,905 16,627 0 0
1st divisor 7 1 1 3 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,425 21,654 30,368 6,968 16,627 0 0
2nd divisor 7 1 2 3 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,425 21,654 15,184 6,968 16,627 0 0
3rd divisor 7 2 2 3 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,425 10,827 15,184 6,968 16,627 0 0
4th divisor 7 2 2 3 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,425 10,827 15,184 6,968 8,314 0 0
5th divisor 7 2 3 3 2 1 1
5th allocation 12,425 10,827 10,123 6,968 8,314 0 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,872 10,827 10,123 6,968 8,314 0 0
7th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 1 1
7th allocation 9,664 10,827 10,123 6,968 8,314 0 0
8th divisor 9 3 3 3 2 1 1
8th allocation 9,664 7,218 10,123 6,968 8,314 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Green John Finnie
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 SNP Maree Todd
6 SNP Laura Mitchell
7 Labour David Stewart

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 15,340 ↑1950 57.00 % ↑6.43
Conservative Donald Cameron 5,925 ↑1078 22.01 % ↑3.70
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,843 ↓377 10.56 % ↓1.60
Labour Mick Rice 2,805 ↓1236 10.42 % ↓4.84
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,415 Swing: ↑1.36%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 15,859 ↑2016 54.95 % ↑6.55
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 5,638 ↓747 19.54 % ↓2.79
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,775 ↓1663 13.08 % ↓5.93
Conservative Struan Mackie 3,586 ↑652 12.43 % ↑2.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,221 Swing: ↑4.67%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 19,327 ↑2457 59.95 % ↑8.41
Labour David Stewart 📃 🎢 4,946 ↓2179 15.34 % ↓6.43
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 4,641 ↑844 14.40 % ↑2.80
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 3,323 ↓440 10.31 % ↓1.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,381 Swing: ↑7.42%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 19,266 ↑2449 64.00 % ↑5.19
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 7,179 ↑1306 23.85 % ↑3.31
Labour Sean Morton 2,485 ↓1095 8.26 % ↓4.26
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 1,172 ↓155 3.89 % ↓0.75
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,087 Swing: ↑0.94%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 9,733 ↑1237 73.70 % ↑8.40
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,585 ↓1139 19.57 % ↓9.05
Conservative Ranald Fraser 688 ↑125 5.21 % ↑0.88
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 201 ↓27 1.52 % ↓0.23
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,148 Swing: ↑8.73%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 2,571 ↓341 42.36 % ↑6.64
SNP Donna Heddle 2,342 ↑298 38.58 % ↑13.51
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 839 ↑153 13.81 % ↑5.39
Labour Gerry McGarvey 318 ↓140 5.24 % ↓0.38
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 229 Swing: ↓3.44%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 3,940 ↓522 64.89 % ↑17.38
SNP Danus Skene 1,299 ↑165 21.40 % ↑9.32
Labour Robina Barton 430 ↓190 7.09 % ↑0.49
Conservative Cameron Smith 403 ↑73 6.64 % ↑3.13
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 2,641 Swing: ↑4.03%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 16,883 ↑2146 53.09 % ↑6.91
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 8,602 ↓1140 27.05 % ↓3.47
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,464 ↑630 10.89 % ↑2.01
Labour Linda Stewart 2,854 ↓1258 8.98 % ↓3.90
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,281 Swing: ↑5.19%