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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 28th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑0.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 41.25 % 21.47 % 17.50 % 5.45 % 14.33 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 113,421 59,016 48,108 14,997 39,398 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,342 59,016 48,108 14,997 39,398 0 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,342 29,508 48,108 14,997 39,398 0 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,342 29,508 24,054 14,997 39,398 0 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,342 29,508 24,054 14,997 19,699 0 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,342 19,672 24,054 14,997 19,699 0 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,342 19,672 16,036 14,997 19,699 0 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 11,342 19,672 16,036 14,997 13,133 0 0
8th divisor 10 4 3 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,342 14,754 16,036 14,997 13,133 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Green Andy Wightman
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 19,136 ↑2432 64.29 % ↑9.95
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 7,748 ↓3414 26.03 % ↓10.28
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,305 ↑419 7.74 % ↑1.60
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 579 ↓77 1.95 % ↓0.18
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,388 Swing: ↑10.11%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alison Dickie 9,038 ↑1149 28.17 % ↑0.98
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 🎢 8,270 ↑3756 25.78 % ↑10.22
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 5,223 ↑950 16.28 % ↑1.55
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 🎢 4,943 ↓2178 15.41 % ↓9.13
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 4,607 ↓610 14.36 % ↓3.62
SNP HOLD Majority: 768 Swing: ↓4.62%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 16,671 ↑2119 56.47 % ↑9.11
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 8,551 ↓3768 28.97 % ↓11.12
Conservative Nick Cook 3,215 ↑585 10.89 % ↑2.33
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 1,083 ↓144 3.67 % ↓0.32
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,120 Swing: ↑10.11%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 14,049 ↑1786 48.35 % ↑8.64
Labour Lesley Hinds 8,926 ↓3932 30.72 % ↓10.91
Conservative Iain McGill 3,579 ↑651 12.32 % ↑2.84
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 2,504 ↓332 8.62 % ↓0.56
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,123 Swing: ↑9.78%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 12,828 ↑1631 41.15 % ↑3.89
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 11,538 ↑2099 37.02 % ↑5.61
Labour Blair Heary 5,549 ↓2444 17.80 % ↓8.80
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 1,254 ↓166 4.02 % ↓0.71
SNP HOLD Majority: 1,290 Swing: ↓0.86%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 11,396 ↑1449 34.70 % ↑5.27
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 7,698 ↑1400 23.44 % ↑4.80
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 7,326 ↓971 22.31 % ↓2.24
Labour Daniel Johnston 6,424 ↓2830 19.56 % ↓7.82
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,698 Swing: ↑0.23%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 13,707 ↑1742 41.49 % ↑5.72
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 8,191 ↓1085 24.79 % ↓2.94
Conservative Sandy Batho 6,169 ↑1122 18.67 % ↑3.58
Labour Cat Headley 4,973 ↓2191 15.05 % ↓6.37
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,516 Swing: ↑4.33%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 19,507 ↑2480 59.80 % ↑9.99
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 8,980 ↓3956 27.53 % ↓10.31
Conservative Charles Kennedy 3,234 ↑588 9.92 % ↑2.18
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 896 ↓119 2.75 % ↓0.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,527 Swing: ↑10.15%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 16,129 ↑2050 57.53 % ↑10.31
Labour Bernard Harkins 7,693 ↓3390 27.44 % ↓9.73
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 3,106 ↑565 11.08 % ↑2.56
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 1,107 ↓147 3.95 % ↓0.26
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,436 Swing: ↑10.02%