Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
TNS, 28th April 2016
These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
North East: full results
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 52.89 % | 13.50 % | 20.18 % | 6.43 % | 7.01 % | 0.00 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 143,880 | 36,720 | 54,900 | 17,488 | 19,066 | 0 | 0 |
1st divisor | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 13,080 | 36,720 | 54,900 | 17,488 | 19,066 | 0 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 13,080 | 36,720 | 27,450 | 17,488 | 19,066 | 0 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 13,080 | 18,360 | 27,450 | 17,488 | 19,066 | 0 | 0 |
4th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 13,080 | 18,360 | 18,300 | 17,488 | 19,066 | 0 | 0 |
5th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 13,080 | 18,360 | 18,300 | 17,488 | 9,533 | 0 | 0 |
6th divisor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 13,080 | 12,240 | 18,300 | 17,488 | 9,533 | 0 | 0 |
7th divisor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 13,080 | 12,240 | 13,725 | 17,488 | 9,533 | 0 | 0 |
8th divisor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 13,080 | 12,240 | 13,725 | 8,744 | 9,533 | 0 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Alex Johnstone |
2 | Labour | Jenny Marra |
3 | Conservative | Alexander Burnett |
4 | Green | Maggie Chapman |
5 | Labour | Lewis MacDonald |
6 | Conservative | Ross Thomson |
7 | Liberal Democrat | Mike Rumbles |
Constituencies in North East region
Aberdeen Central
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Kevin Stewart 🛋 | 11,523 | ↑1465 | 48.13 % | ↑8.14 |
Labour | Lewis Macdonald | 6,554 | ↓2887 | 27.38 % | ↓10.16 |
Conservative | Tom Mason | 3,789 | ↑689 | 15.83 % | ↑3.50 |
Liberal Democrat | Liam Bruce | 2,074 | ↓275 | 8.66 % | ↓0.68 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 4,969 | Swing: | ↑9.15% |
Aberdeen Donside
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Mark McDonald 📃 | 16,944 | ↑2154 | 64.43 % | ↑9.16 |
Labour | Greg Williams | 5,286 | ↓2329 | 20.10 % | ↓8.36 |
Conservative | Liam Kerr | 2,648 | ↑482 | 10.07 % | ↑1.98 |
Liberal Democrat | Isobel Davidson | 1,418 | ↓188 | 5.39 % | ↓0.61 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 11,658 | Swing: | ↑8.76% |
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Maureen Watt 🛋 | 13,687 | ↑1740 | 50.77 % | ↑9.07 |
Conservative | Ross Thomson 🎢 | 4,960 | ↑902 | 18.40 % | ↑4.24 |
Liberal Democrat | John Waddell | 4,410 | ↓584 | 16.36 % | ↓1.07 |
Labour | Alison Evison | 3,904 | ↓1720 | 14.48 % | ↓5.15 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 8,727 | Swing: | ↑2.42% |
Aberdeenshire East
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Gillian Martin | 22,377 | ↑2844 | 68.09 % | ↑3.59 |
Conservative | Colin Clark | 5,147 | ↑936 | 15.66 % | ↑1.76 |
Liberal Democrat | Christine Jardine | 3,742 | ↓496 | 11.39 % | ↓2.60 |
Labour | Sarah Flavell 💸 | 1,599 | ↓705 | 4.87 % | ↓2.74 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 17,230 | Swing: | ↑0.91% |
Aberdeenshire West
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Dennis Robertson 🛋 | 13,961 | ↑1775 | 46.40 % | ↑3.85 |
Conservative | Alexander Burnett 🎢 | 7,367 | ↑1340 | 24.49 % | ↑3.44 |
Liberal Democrat | Mike Rumbles 🎢 | 7,129 | ↓945 | 23.70 % | ↓4.50 |
Labour | Sarah Duncan | 1,631 | ↓718 | 5.42 % | ↓2.78 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 6,594 | Swing: | ↑0.21% |
Angus North & Mearns
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Mari Evans | 15,649 | ↑1989 | 57.62 % | ↑2.80 |
Conservative | Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 | 7,791 | ↑1417 | 28.69 % | ↑3.11 |
Labour | John Ruddy | 2,194 | ↓966 | 8.08 % | ↓4.60 |
Liberal Democrat | Euan Davidson | 1,524 | ↓202 | 5.61 % | ↓1.32 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 7,858 | Swing: | ↓0.16% |
Angus South
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Graeme Dey 🛋 | 18,518 | ↑2354 | 64.56 % | ↑6.09 |
Conservative | Kirstene Hair | 6,822 | ↑1241 | 23.78 % | ↑3.59 |
Labour | Joanne McFadden | 2,571 | ↓1132 | 8.96 % | ↓4.44 |
Liberal Democrat | Clive Sneddon 💸 | 772 | ↓102 | 2.69 % | ↓0.47 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 11,696 | Swing: | ↑1.25% |
Banffshire & Buchan Coast
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Stewart Stevenson 🛋 | 19,260 | ↑2448 | 69.90 % | ↑2.66 |
Conservative | Peter Chapman | 5,613 | ↑1021 | 20.37 % | ↑2.00 |
Labour | Nathan Morrison | 1,834 | ↓808 | 6.66 % | ↓3.91 |
Liberal Democrat | David Evans 💸 | 846 | ↓112 | 3.07 % | ↓0.76 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 13,647 | Swing: | ↑0.33% |
Dundee City East
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Shona Robison 🛋 | 18,950 | ↑2409 | 70.60 % | ↑6.37 |
Labour | Richard McCready | 4,069 | ↓1793 | 15.16 % | ↓7.60 |
Conservative | Bill Bowman | 3,117 | ↑567 | 11.61 % | ↑1.71 |
Liberal Democrat | Craig Duncan 💸 | 706 | ↓94 | 2.63 % | ↓0.48 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 14,881 | Swing: | ↑6.98% |
Dundee City West
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 | 16,141 | ↑2052 | 66.15 % | ↑8.55 |
Labour | Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 | 5,334 | ↓2350 | 21.86 % | ↓9.55 |
Conservative | Nicola Ross | 1,986 | ↑361 | 8.14 % | ↑1.50 |
Liberal Democrat | Daniel Coleman 💸 | 939 | ↓124 | 3.85 % | ↓0.50 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 10,807 | Swing: | ↑9.05% |