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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 28th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑0.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.89 % 13.50 % 20.18 % 6.43 % 7.01 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10 — — — — — —
Votes 143,880 36,720 54,900 17,488 19,066 0 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,080 36,720 54,900 17,488 19,066 0 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,080 36,720 27,450 17,488 19,066 0 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,080 18,360 27,450 17,488 19,066 0 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,080 18,360 18,300 17,488 19,066 0 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 13,080 18,360 18,300 17,488 9,533 0 0
6th divisor 11 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,080 12,240 18,300 17,488 9,533 0 0
7th divisor 11 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,080 12,240 13,725 17,488 9,533 0 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,080 12,240 13,725 8,744 9,533 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Labour Lewis MacDonald
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 11,523 ↑1465 48.13 % ↑8.14
Labour Lewis Macdonald 6,554 ↓2887 27.38 % ↓10.16
Conservative Tom Mason 3,789 ↑689 15.83 % ↑3.50
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 2,074 ↓275 8.66 % ↓0.68
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,969 Swing: ↑9.15%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 16,944 ↑2154 64.43 % ↑9.16
Labour Greg Williams 5,286 ↓2329 20.10 % ↓8.36
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,648 ↑482 10.07 % ↑1.98
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 1,418 ↓188 5.39 % ↓0.61
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,658 Swing: ↑8.76%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 13,687 ↑1740 50.77 % ↑9.07
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 4,960 ↑902 18.40 % ↑4.24
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 4,410 ↓584 16.36 % ↓1.07
Labour Alison Evison 3,904 ↓1720 14.48 % ↓5.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,727 Swing: ↑2.42%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 22,377 ↑2844 68.09 % ↑3.59
Conservative Colin Clark 5,147 ↑936 15.66 % ↑1.76
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 3,742 ↓496 11.39 % ↓2.60
Labour Sarah Flavell 💸 1,599 ↓705 4.87 % ↓2.74
SNP HOLD Majority: 17,230 Swing: ↑0.91%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 13,961 ↑1775 46.40 % ↑3.85
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 7,367 ↑1340 24.49 % ↑3.44
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 🎢 7,129 ↓945 23.70 % ↓4.50
Labour Sarah Duncan 1,631 ↓718 5.42 % ↓2.78
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,594 Swing: ↑0.21%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 15,649 ↑1989 57.62 % ↑2.80
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 7,791 ↑1417 28.69 % ↑3.11
Labour John Ruddy 2,194 ↓966 8.08 % ↓4.60
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 1,524 ↓202 5.61 % ↓1.32
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,858 Swing: ↓0.16%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 18,518 ↑2354 64.56 % ↑6.09
Conservative Kirstene Hair 6,822 ↑1241 23.78 % ↑3.59
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,571 ↓1132 8.96 % ↓4.44
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 772 ↓102 2.69 % ↓0.47
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,696 Swing: ↑1.25%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 19,260 ↑2448 69.90 % ↑2.66
Conservative Peter Chapman 5,613 ↑1021 20.37 % ↑2.00
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,834 ↓808 6.66 % ↓3.91
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 846 ↓112 3.07 % ↓0.76
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,647 Swing: ↑0.33%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 18,950 ↑2409 70.60 % ↑6.37
Labour Richard McCready 4,069 ↓1793 15.16 % ↓7.60
Conservative Bill Bowman 3,117 ↑567 11.61 % ↑1.71
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 706 ↓94 2.63 % ↓0.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,881 Swing: ↑6.98%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 16,141 ↑2052 66.15 % ↑8.55
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 5,334 ↓2350 21.86 % ↓9.55
Conservative Nicola Ross 1,986 ↑361 8.14 % ↑1.50
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 939 ↓124 3.85 % ↓0.50
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,807 Swing: ↑9.05%