Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
TNS, 28th April 2016
These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
South: full results
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 40.96 % | 20.71 % | 27.76 % | 5.09 % | 5.48 % | 0.00 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 5 | — | 4 | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 116,812 | 59,059 | 79,189 | 14,523 | 15,636 | 0 | 0 |
1st divisor | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 19,469 | 59,059 | 15,838 | 14,523 | 15,636 | 0 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 19,469 | 29,530 | 15,838 | 14,523 | 15,636 | 0 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 19,469 | 19,686 | 15,838 | 14,523 | 15,636 | 0 | 0 |
4th divisor | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 19,469 | 14,765 | 15,838 | 14,523 | 15,636 | 0 | 0 |
5th divisor | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 16,687 | 14,765 | 15,838 | 14,523 | 15,636 | 0 | 0 |
6th divisor | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 14,602 | 14,765 | 15,838 | 14,523 | 15,636 | 0 | 0 |
7th divisor | 8 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 14,602 | 14,765 | 13,198 | 14,523 | 15,636 | 0 | 0 |
8th divisor | 8 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 14,602 | 14,765 | 13,198 | 14,523 | 7,818 | 0 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Iain Gray |
2 | Labour | Claudia Beamish |
3 | Labour | Colin Smyth |
4 | SNP | Joan McAlpine |
5 | SNP | Emma Harper |
6 | Conservative | Rachael Hamilton |
7 | Green | Sarah Beattie-Smith |
Constituencies in South region
Ayr
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | John Scott 🛋 | 15,887 | ↑2890 | 44.71 % | ↑5.77 |
SNP | Jennifer Dunn | 13,615 | ↑1731 | 38.32 % | ↑2.71 |
Labour | Brian McGinley | 5,400 | ↓2379 | 15.20 % | ↓8.11 |
Liberal Democrat | Robbie Simpson 💸 | 630 | ↓83 | 1.77 % | ↓0.37 |
Conservative HOLD | Majority: | 2,272 | Swing: | ↑1.53% |
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Jeane Freeman | 15,180 | ↑1930 | 53.79 % | ↑7.63 |
Labour | Carol Mochan | 7,406 | ↓3263 | 26.24 % | ↓10.93 |
Conservative | Lee Lyons | 5,085 | ↑925 | 18.02 % | ↑3.53 |
Liberal Democrat | Dawud Islam 💸 | 551 | ↓73 | 1.95 % | ↓0.22 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 7,774 | Swing: | ↑9.28% |
Clydesdale
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Aileen Campbell 🛋 | 16,740 | ↑2128 | 56.44 % | ↑7.63 |
Labour | Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 | 7,217 | ↓3179 | 24.33 % | ↓10.40 |
Conservative | Alex Allison | 4,855 | ↑883 | 16.37 % | ↑3.10 |
Liberal Democrat | Fraser Grieve 💸 | 845 | ↓112 | 2.85 % | ↓0.35 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 9,523 | Swing: | ↑9.02% |
Dumfriesshire
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | Oliver Mundell | 11,573 | ↑2105 | 37.10 % | ↑7.42 |
SNP | Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 | 9,605 | ↑1221 | 30.79 % | ↑4.50 |
Labour | Elaine Murray 🛋 | 8,763 | ↓3861 | 28.09 % | ↓11.49 |
Liberal Democrat | Richard Brodie 💸 | 1,253 | ↓166 | 4.02 % | ↓0.43 |
Conservative GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 1,968 | Swing: | ↑1.46% |
East Lothian
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | DJ Johnston-Smith | 14,189 | ↑1804 | 45.61 % | ↑7.12 |
Labour | Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 | 8,702 | ↓3834 | 27.97 % | ↓10.99 |
Conservative | Rachael Hamilton 🎢 | 6,532 | ↑1188 | 21.00 % | ↑4.39 |
Liberal Democrat | Ettie Spencer | 1,688 | ↓224 | 5.43 % | ↓0.51 |
SNP GAIN from Labour | Majority: | 5,487 | Swing: | ↑9.05% |
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | John Lamont 🛋 | 15,809 | ↑2876 | 51.01 % | ↑6.13 |
SNP | Paul Wheelhouse 📃 | 8,706 | ↑1107 | 28.09 % | ↑1.72 |
Liberal Democrat | Jim Hume 📃 | 4,406 | ↓584 | 14.22 % | ↓3.10 |
Labour | Barrie Cunning | 2,073 | ↓913 | 6.69 % | ↓3.67 |
Conservative HOLD | Majority: | 7,103 | Swing: | ↑2.21% |
Galloway & West Dumfries
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conservative | Finlay Carson | 13,533 | ↑2462 | 43.07 % | ↑6.16 |
SNP | Aileen McLeod 📃 | 11,696 | ↑1487 | 37.22 % | ↑3.19 |
Labour | Fiona O'Donnell | 5,521 | ↓2433 | 17.57 % | ↓8.95 |
Liberal Democrat | Andrew Metcalf 💸 | 674 | ↓89 | 2.14 % | ↓0.40 |
Conservative HOLD | Majority: | 1,837 | Swing: | ↑1.49% |
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Willie Coffey 🛋 | 19,434 | ↑2470 | 61.43 % | ↑8.18 |
Labour | Dave Meechan | 7,616 | ↓3355 | 24.07 % | ↓10.37 |
Conservative | Brian Whittle | 4,045 | ↑736 | 12.79 % | ↑2.40 |
Liberal Democrat | Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 | 542 | ↓72 | 1.71 % | ↓0.22 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 11,818 | Swing: | ↑9.27% |
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale
Party | Candidate | Votes | Change | Share | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | Christine Grahame 🛋 | 15,873 | ↑2018 | 49.57 % | ↑6.06 |
Liberal Democrat | Kris Chapman | 7,886 | ↓1045 | 24.63 % | ↓3.42 |
Conservative | Michelle Ballantyne | 4,575 | ↑832 | 14.29 % | ↑2.53 |
Labour | Fiona Dugdale | 3,687 | ↓1625 | 11.52 % | ↓5.16 |
SNP HOLD | Majority: | 7,987 | Swing: | ↑4.74% |