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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 28th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑0.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.96 % 20.71 % 27.76 % 5.09 % 5.48 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 116,812 59,059 79,189 14,523 15,636 0 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,469 59,059 15,838 14,523 15,636 0 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,469 29,530 15,838 14,523 15,636 0 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,469 19,686 15,838 14,523 15,636 0 0
4th divisor 6 4 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 19,469 14,765 15,838 14,523 15,636 0 0
5th divisor 7 4 5 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 16,687 14,765 15,838 14,523 15,636 0 0
6th divisor 8 4 5 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 14,602 14,765 15,838 14,523 15,636 0 0
7th divisor 8 4 6 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 14,602 14,765 13,198 14,523 15,636 0 0
8th divisor 8 4 6 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 14,602 14,765 13,198 14,523 7,818 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 Labour Colin Smyth
4 SNP Joan McAlpine
5 SNP Emma Harper
6 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
7 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 15,887 ↑2890 44.71 % ↑5.77
SNP Jennifer Dunn 13,615 ↑1731 38.32 % ↑2.71
Labour Brian McGinley 5,400 ↓2379 15.20 % ↓8.11
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 630 ↓83 1.77 % ↓0.37
Conservative HOLD Majority: 2,272 Swing: ↑1.53%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 15,180 ↑1930 53.79 % ↑7.63
Labour Carol Mochan 7,406 ↓3263 26.24 % ↓10.93
Conservative Lee Lyons 5,085 ↑925 18.02 % ↑3.53
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 551 ↓73 1.95 % ↓0.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,774 Swing: ↑9.28%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 16,740 ↑2128 56.44 % ↑7.63
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 7,217 ↓3179 24.33 % ↓10.40
Conservative Alex Allison 4,855 ↑883 16.37 % ↑3.10
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 845 ↓112 2.85 % ↓0.35
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,523 Swing: ↑9.02%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 11,573 ↑2105 37.10 % ↑7.42
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 9,605 ↑1221 30.79 % ↑4.50
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 8,763 ↓3861 28.09 % ↓11.49
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,253 ↓166 4.02 % ↓0.43
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,968 Swing: ↑1.46%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 14,189 ↑1804 45.61 % ↑7.12
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 8,702 ↓3834 27.97 % ↓10.99
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 🎢 6,532 ↑1188 21.00 % ↑4.39
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 1,688 ↓224 5.43 % ↓0.51
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,487 Swing: ↑9.05%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 15,809 ↑2876 51.01 % ↑6.13
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,706 ↑1107 28.09 % ↑1.72
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 4,406 ↓584 14.22 % ↓3.10
Labour Barrie Cunning 2,073 ↓913 6.69 % ↓3.67
Conservative HOLD Majority: 7,103 Swing: ↑2.21%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 13,533 ↑2462 43.07 % ↑6.16
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 11,696 ↑1487 37.22 % ↑3.19
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 5,521 ↓2433 17.57 % ↓8.95
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 674 ↓89 2.14 % ↓0.40
Conservative HOLD Majority: 1,837 Swing: ↑1.49%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 19,434 ↑2470 61.43 % ↑8.18
Labour Dave Meechan 7,616 ↓3355 24.07 % ↓10.37
Conservative Brian Whittle 4,045 ↑736 12.79 % ↑2.40
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 542 ↓72 1.71 % ↓0.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,818 Swing: ↑9.27%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 15,873 ↑2018 49.57 % ↑6.06
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 7,886 ↓1045 24.63 % ↓3.42
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,575 ↑832 14.29 % ↑2.53
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,687 ↓1625 11.52 % ↓5.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,987 Swing: ↑4.74%