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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

TNS, 28th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll published by TNS on 28th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑0.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑0.98
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓4.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↓0.2
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↓0.91
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓4.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.77 % 28.25 % 19.14 % 3.21 % 5.63 % 0.00 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 119,915 77,410 52,444 8,801 15,415 0 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,992 77,410 26,222 8,801 15,415 0 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,992 38,705 26,222 8,801 15,415 0 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,992 25,803 26,222 8,801 15,415 0 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,992 25,803 17,481 8,801 15,415 0 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,992 19,353 17,481 8,801 15,415 0 0
6th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,992 15,482 17,481 8,801 15,415 0 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,992 15,482 13,111 8,801 15,415 0 0
8th divisor 10 6 4 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 11,992 12,902 13,111 8,801 15,415 0 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Labour Ken Macintosh
6 Conservative Maurice Golden
7 Labour Johanna Baxter

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 14,066 ↑1788 52.05 % ↑8.77
Labour Gail Casey 8,027 ↓3537 29.70 % ↓11.06
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,371 ↑613 12.47 % ↑2.75
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,562 ↓207 5.78 % ↓0.46
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,039 Swing: ↑9.91%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 17,802 ↑2263 59.84 % ↑7.23
Labour Johanna Baxter 🎢 6,540 ↓2882 21.98 % ↓9.92
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 4,929 ↑897 16.57 % ↑2.92
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 479 ↓64 1.61 % ↓0.23
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,262 Swing: ↑8.57%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 12,594 ↑1601 58.95 % ↑9.11
Labour Joe Cullinane 6,001 ↓2644 28.09 % ↓11.11
Conservative William McClure 2,287 ↑416 10.70 % ↑2.22
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 483 ↓64 2.26 % ↓0.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,593 Swing: ↑10.11%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 12,514 ↑1591 47.87 % ↑9.55
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 8,720 ↓3842 33.36 % ↓10.70
Conservative Maurice Corry 4,150 ↑755 15.87 % ↑3.96
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 758 ↓100 2.90 % ↓0.11
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,794 Swing: ↑10.12%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 13,018 ↑2368 41.39 % ↑8.03
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 8,910 ↑1133 28.32 % ↑3.96
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 8,790 ↓3872 27.94 % ↓11.72
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 737 ↓98 2.34 % ↓0.28
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,108 Swing: ↑2.03%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 13,605 ↑1729 51.59 % ↑9.49
Labour Siobhan McCready 8,599 ↓3788 32.61 % ↓11.30
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,458 ↑447 9.32 % ↑2.19
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,708 ↓226 6.48 % ↓0.38
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,006 Swing: ↑10.39%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 12,502 ↑1589 51.65 % ↑9.00
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 7,403 ↓3262 30.59 % ↓11.09
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,725 ↑496 11.26 % ↑2.55
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,574 ↓209 6.50 % ↓0.47
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,099 Swing: ↑10.04%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 13,186 ↑1676 48.33 % ↑6.47
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 6,904 ↓3042 25.30 % ↓10.87
Conservative David Wilson 6,710 ↑1221 24.59 % ↑4.63
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 486 ↓64 1.78 % ↓0.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,282 Swing: ↑8.67%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 11,864 ↑1508 47.40 % ↑8.91
Labour Paul O'Kane 8,978 ↓3955 35.87 % ↓12.19
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,566 ↑649 14.25 % ↑3.41
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 620 ↓82 2.48 % ↓0.13
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,886 Swing: ↑10.55%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 16,334 ↑2076 49.95 % ↑7.71
Labour Margaret McCarthy 8,647 ↓3809 26.44 % ↓10.46
Conservative Andrew Polson 5,425 ↑987 16.59 % ↑3.44
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 2,296 ↓304 7.02 % ↓0.68
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,687 Swing: ↑9.09%