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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑9.71
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.89
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.53
Others 1.08 %  % ↓1.08

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.18
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓6.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.85
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.13
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.79
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.23

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 72 ↑3 53 67 ↑14 16 5 ↓11
Labour 37 25 ↓12 15 ↓15 22 25 ↑3
Conservative 15 18 ↑3 3 5 ↑2 12 13 ↑1
Green 2 7 ↑5 2 7 ↑5
Lib Dem 5 6 ↑1 2 1 ↓1 3 5 ↑2
UKIP 1 ↑1 1 ↑1
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Orkney Islands SNP 130 GAIN over Liberal Democrat
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative 901 HOLD over SNP
Ayr Conservative 1,181 HOLD over SNP
Dumfriesshire Conservative 1,191 GAIN over SNP
Edinburgh Central SNP 1,824 HOLD over Green
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 2,225 HOLD over SNP
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 2,258 HOLD over Conservative
Glasgow Provan SNP 2,756 GAIN over Labour
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 3,018 GAIN over Labour
Eastwood Conservative 3,347 GAIN over SNP

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
South SNP Green 332 332
Glasgow Labour Green 414 828
Mid Scotland and Fife Labour Conservative 448 1,342
Lothian Green Labour 584 1,752
West Green Labour 377 1,884
Central SNP Labour 910 5,460
North East Conservative SNP 3,041 33,453
Highlands and Islands SNP SNP Same party would win the next seat