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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑9.71
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.89
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.53
Others 1.08 %  % ↓1.08

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.18
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓6.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.85
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.13
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.79
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.23

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.95 % 29.22 % 9.09 % 1.84 % 4.51 % 2.39 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 113,620 62,713 19,499 3,958 9,677 5,129 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,362 62,713 19,499 3,958 9,677 5,129 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,362 31,357 19,499 3,958 9,677 5,129 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,362 20,904 19,499 3,958 9,677 5,129 0
4th divisor 10 4 1 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,362 15,678 19,499 3,958 9,677 5,129 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,362 15,678 9,750 3,958 9,677 5,129 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 11,362 12,543 9,750 3,958 9,677 5,129 0
7th divisor 10 6 2 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 11,362 10,452 9,750 3,958 9,677 5,129 0
8th divisor 11 6 2 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,329 10,452 9,750 3,958 9,677 5,129 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Labour Mark Griffin
4 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Labour Craig Martin
7 SNP Sophia Coyle

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.48 % 28.96 % 8.72 % 3.30 % 11.15 % 2.38 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 87,223 55,543 16,717 6,337 21,390 4,561 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,722 55,543 16,717 6,337 21,390 4,561 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,722 27,772 16,717 6,337 21,390 4,561 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,722 18,514 16,717 6,337 21,390 4,561 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,722 18,514 16,717 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
5th divisor 10 4 1 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,722 13,886 16,717 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,722 13,886 8,359 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,722 11,109 8,359 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 8,722 9,257 8,359 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Labour James Kelly
5 Conservative Adam Tomkins
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Labour Bill Butler

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 46.62 % 10.28 % 14.27 % 13.54 % 8.14 % 7.15 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 — — 1 — — —
Votes 89,294 19,686 27,331 25,922 15,588 13,695 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,162 19,686 27,331 12,961 15,588 13,695 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,162 19,686 13,666 12,961 15,588 13,695 0
3rd divisor 8 2 2 2 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,162 9,843 13,666 12,961 15,588 13,695 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,162 9,843 13,666 12,961 7,794 13,695 0
5th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 2 1
5th allocation 11,162 9,843 13,666 12,961 7,794 6,848 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 2 1
6th allocation 11,162 9,843 9,110 12,961 7,794 6,848 0
7th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 2 1
7th allocation 11,162 9,843 9,110 8,641 7,794 6,848 0
8th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,922 9,843 9,110 8,641 7,794 6,848 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Green John Finnie
4 UKIP David Coburn
5 Conservative Edward Mountain
6 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone
7 SNP Maree Todd

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.14 % 19.42 % 15.67 % 6.73 % 13.37 % 2.68 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 116,446 53,651 43,297 18,596 36,935 7,400 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,645 53,651 43,297 18,596 36,935 7,400 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,645 26,826 43,297 18,596 36,935 7,400 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,645 26,826 21,649 18,596 36,935 7,400 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,645 26,826 21,649 18,596 18,468 7,400 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,645 17,884 21,649 18,596 18,468 7,400 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,645 17,884 14,432 18,596 18,468 7,400 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,645 17,884 14,432 9,298 18,468 7,400 0
8th divisor 10 3 3 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,645 17,884 14,432 9,298 12,312 7,400 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
7 Green Andy Wightman

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.75 % 18.36 % 17.86 % 6.73 % 7.00 % 4.31 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 122,468 49,148 47,806 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,247 49,148 47,806 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,247 24,574 47,806 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,247 24,574 23,903 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,247 16,383 23,903 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,247 16,383 15,935 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,247 16,383 15,935 18,017 9,373 11,526 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,247 16,383 15,935 9,009 9,373 11,526 0
8th divisor 10 4 3 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,247 12,287 15,935 9,009 9,373 11,526 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Alex Rowley
2 Conservative Murdo Fraser
3 Labour Claire Baker
4 Conservative Liz Smith
5 Green Mark Ruskell
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Labour Thomas Docherty

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.73 % 11.92 % 17.64 % 7.74 % 6.38 % 3.59 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10 — — — — — —
Votes 147,717 33,382 49,410 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,429 33,382 49,410 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,429 33,382 24,705 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,429 16,691 24,705 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,429 16,691 16,470 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 2 1 1 1
5th allocation 13,429 16,691 16,470 10,843 17,874 10,060 0
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,429 16,691 16,470 10,843 8,937 10,060 0
7th divisor 11 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,429 11,127 16,470 10,843 8,937 10,060 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,429 11,127 12,353 10,843 8,937 10,060 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
5 Green Maggie Chapman
6 Labour Lewis MacDonald
7 Conservative Ross Thomson

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 41.25 % 18.47 % 24.51 % 6.19 % 5.04 % 4.53 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 — 4 — — — —
Votes 119,927 53,690 71,270 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,988 53,690 14,254 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,988 26,845 14,254 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,988 17,897 14,254 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 17,132 17,897 14,254 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
5th divisor 7 3 5 2 1 1 1
5th allocation 17,132 17,897 14,254 9,005 14,659 13,171 0
6th divisor 7 4 5 2 1 1 1
6th allocation 17,132 13,423 14,254 9,005 14,659 13,171 0
7th divisor 8 4 5 2 1 1 1
7th allocation 14,991 13,423 14,254 9,005 14,659 13,171 0
8th divisor 9 4 5 2 1 1 1
8th allocation 13,325 13,423 14,254 9,005 14,659 13,171 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
5 Labour Colin Smyth
6 SNP Emma Harper
7 SNP Paul Wheelhouse

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.90 % 25.67 % 17.22 % 3.98 % 5.27 % 2.96 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — 1 — — — —
Votes 123,113 70,372 47,199 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,311 70,372 23,600 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,311 35,186 23,600 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,311 23,457 23,600 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,311 23,457 15,733 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,311 17,593 15,733 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
6th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 12,311 14,074 15,733 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 12,311 14,074 11,800 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,311 14,074 11,800 10,913 7,226 8,123 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Labour Ken Macintosh
6 Conservative Maurice Golden
7 Green Ross Greer