Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016
These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
Regions
Central | C | ||||||||||
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Glasgow | C | ||||||||||
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Highlands and Islands | C | ||||||||||
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Lothian | C | ||||||||||
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Mid Scotland and Fife | C | ||||||||||
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North East | C | ||||||||||
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South | C | ||||||||||
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West | C | ||||||||||
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Central
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 52.95 % | 29.22 % | 9.09 % | 1.84 % | 4.51 % | 2.39 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 113,620 | 62,713 | 19,499 | 3,958 | 9,677 | 5,129 | 0 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 11,362 | 62,713 | 19,499 | 3,958 | 9,677 | 5,129 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 11,362 | 31,357 | 19,499 | 3,958 | 9,677 | 5,129 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 11,362 | 20,904 | 19,499 | 3,958 | 9,677 | 5,129 | 0 |
4th divisor | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 11,362 | 15,678 | 19,499 | 3,958 | 9,677 | 5,129 | 0 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 11,362 | 15,678 | 9,750 | 3,958 | 9,677 | 5,129 | 0 |
6th divisor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 11,362 | 12,543 | 9,750 | 3,958 | 9,677 | 5,129 | 0 |
7th divisor | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 11,362 | 10,452 | 9,750 | 3,958 | 9,677 | 5,129 | 0 |
8th divisor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 10,329 | 10,452 | 9,750 | 3,958 | 9,677 | 5,129 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Richard Leonard |
2 | Labour | Monica Lennon |
3 | Labour | Mark Griffin |
4 | Conservative | Margaret Mitchell |
5 | Labour | Elaine Smith |
6 | Labour | Craig Martin |
7 | SNP | Sophia Coyle |
Glasgow
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 45.48 % | 28.96 % | 8.72 % | 3.30 % | 11.15 % | 2.38 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 87,223 | 55,543 | 16,717 | 6,337 | 21,390 | 4,561 | 0 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 8,722 | 55,543 | 16,717 | 6,337 | 21,390 | 4,561 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 8,722 | 27,772 | 16,717 | 6,337 | 21,390 | 4,561 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 8,722 | 18,514 | 16,717 | 6,337 | 21,390 | 4,561 | 0 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 8,722 | 18,514 | 16,717 | 6,337 | 10,695 | 4,561 | 0 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 8,722 | 13,886 | 16,717 | 6,337 | 10,695 | 4,561 | 0 |
6th divisor | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 8,722 | 13,886 | 8,359 | 6,337 | 10,695 | 4,561 | 0 |
7th divisor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 8,722 | 11,109 | 8,359 | 6,337 | 10,695 | 4,561 | 0 |
8th divisor | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 8,722 | 9,257 | 8,359 | 6,337 | 10,695 | 4,561 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Anas Sarwar |
2 | Labour | Johann Lamont |
3 | Green | Patrick Harvie |
4 | Labour | James Kelly |
5 | Conservative | Adam Tomkins |
6 | Labour | Pauline McNeill |
7 | Labour | Bill Butler |
Highlands and Islands
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 46.62 % | 10.28 % | 14.27 % | 13.54 % | 8.14 % | 7.15 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Votes | 89,294 | 19,686 | 27,331 | 25,922 | 15,588 | 13,695 | 0 |
1st divisor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 11,162 | 19,686 | 27,331 | 12,961 | 15,588 | 13,695 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 11,162 | 19,686 | 13,666 | 12,961 | 15,588 | 13,695 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 11,162 | 9,843 | 13,666 | 12,961 | 15,588 | 13,695 | 0 |
4th divisor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 11,162 | 9,843 | 13,666 | 12,961 | 7,794 | 13,695 | 0 |
5th divisor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
5th allocation | 11,162 | 9,843 | 13,666 | 12,961 | 7,794 | 6,848 | 0 |
6th divisor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
6th allocation | 11,162 | 9,843 | 9,110 | 12,961 | 7,794 | 6,848 | 0 |
7th divisor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
7th allocation | 11,162 | 9,843 | 9,110 | 8,641 | 7,794 | 6,848 | 0 |
8th divisor | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
8th allocation | 9,922 | 9,843 | 9,110 | 8,641 | 7,794 | 6,848 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Douglas Ross |
2 | Labour | Rhoda Grant |
3 | Green | John Finnie |
4 | UKIP | David Coburn |
5 | Conservative | Edward Mountain |
6 | Liberal Democrat | Jamie Stone |
7 | SNP | Maree Todd |
Lothian
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 42.14 % | 19.42 % | 15.67 % | 6.73 % | 13.37 % | 2.68 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 116,446 | 53,651 | 43,297 | 18,596 | 36,935 | 7,400 | 0 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 11,645 | 53,651 | 43,297 | 18,596 | 36,935 | 7,400 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 11,645 | 26,826 | 43,297 | 18,596 | 36,935 | 7,400 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 11,645 | 26,826 | 21,649 | 18,596 | 36,935 | 7,400 | 0 |
4th divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 11,645 | 26,826 | 21,649 | 18,596 | 18,468 | 7,400 | 0 |
5th divisor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 11,645 | 17,884 | 21,649 | 18,596 | 18,468 | 7,400 | 0 |
6th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 11,645 | 17,884 | 14,432 | 18,596 | 18,468 | 7,400 | 0 |
7th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 11,645 | 17,884 | 14,432 | 9,298 | 18,468 | 7,400 | 0 |
8th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 11,645 | 17,884 | 14,432 | 9,298 | 12,312 | 7,400 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Kezia Dugdale |
2 | Conservative | Ruth Davidson |
3 | Green | Alison Johnstone |
4 | Labour | Neil Findlay |
5 | Conservative | Miles Briggs |
6 | Liberal Democrat | Alex Cole-Hamilton |
7 | Green | Andy Wightman |
Mid Scotland and Fife
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 45.75 % | 18.36 % | 17.86 % | 6.73 % | 7.00 % | 4.31 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 122,468 | 49,148 | 47,806 | 18,017 | 18,745 | 11,526 | 0 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 12,247 | 49,148 | 47,806 | 18,017 | 18,745 | 11,526 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 12,247 | 24,574 | 47,806 | 18,017 | 18,745 | 11,526 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 12,247 | 24,574 | 23,903 | 18,017 | 18,745 | 11,526 | 0 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 12,247 | 16,383 | 23,903 | 18,017 | 18,745 | 11,526 | 0 |
5th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 12,247 | 16,383 | 15,935 | 18,017 | 18,745 | 11,526 | 0 |
6th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 12,247 | 16,383 | 15,935 | 18,017 | 9,373 | 11,526 | 0 |
7th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 12,247 | 16,383 | 15,935 | 9,009 | 9,373 | 11,526 | 0 |
8th divisor | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 12,247 | 12,287 | 15,935 | 9,009 | 9,373 | 11,526 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Alex Rowley |
2 | Conservative | Murdo Fraser |
3 | Labour | Claire Baker |
4 | Conservative | Liz Smith |
5 | Green | Mark Ruskell |
6 | Liberal Democrat | Willie Rennie |
7 | Labour | Thomas Docherty |
North East
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 52.73 % | 11.92 % | 17.64 % | 7.74 % | 6.38 % | 3.59 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 147,717 | 33,382 | 49,410 | 21,686 | 17,874 | 10,060 | 0 |
1st divisor | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 13,429 | 33,382 | 49,410 | 21,686 | 17,874 | 10,060 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 13,429 | 33,382 | 24,705 | 21,686 | 17,874 | 10,060 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 13,429 | 16,691 | 24,705 | 21,686 | 17,874 | 10,060 | 0 |
4th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 13,429 | 16,691 | 16,470 | 21,686 | 17,874 | 10,060 | 0 |
5th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 13,429 | 16,691 | 16,470 | 10,843 | 17,874 | 10,060 | 0 |
6th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 13,429 | 16,691 | 16,470 | 10,843 | 8,937 | 10,060 | 0 |
7th divisor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 13,429 | 11,127 | 16,470 | 10,843 | 8,937 | 10,060 | 0 |
8th divisor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 13,429 | 11,127 | 12,353 | 10,843 | 8,937 | 10,060 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Alex Johnstone |
2 | Labour | Jenny Marra |
3 | Conservative | Alexander Burnett |
4 | Liberal Democrat | Mike Rumbles |
5 | Green | Maggie Chapman |
6 | Labour | Lewis MacDonald |
7 | Conservative | Ross Thomson |
South
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 41.25 % | 18.47 % | 24.51 % | 6.19 % | 5.04 % | 4.53 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 5 | — | 4 | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 119,927 | 53,690 | 71,270 | 18,009 | 14,659 | 13,171 | 0 |
1st divisor | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 19,988 | 53,690 | 14,254 | 18,009 | 14,659 | 13,171 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 19,988 | 26,845 | 14,254 | 18,009 | 14,659 | 13,171 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 19,988 | 17,897 | 14,254 | 18,009 | 14,659 | 13,171 | 0 |
4th divisor | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 17,132 | 17,897 | 14,254 | 18,009 | 14,659 | 13,171 | 0 |
5th divisor | 7 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 17,132 | 17,897 | 14,254 | 9,005 | 14,659 | 13,171 | 0 |
6th divisor | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 17,132 | 13,423 | 14,254 | 9,005 | 14,659 | 13,171 | 0 |
7th divisor | 8 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 14,991 | 13,423 | 14,254 | 9,005 | 14,659 | 13,171 | 0 |
8th divisor | 9 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 13,325 | 13,423 | 14,254 | 9,005 | 14,659 | 13,171 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Iain Gray |
2 | Labour | Claudia Beamish |
3 | SNP | Joan McAlpine |
4 | Liberal Democrat | Jim Hume |
5 | Labour | Colin Smyth |
6 | SNP | Emma Harper |
7 | SNP | Paul Wheelhouse |
West
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 44.90 % | 25.67 % | 17.22 % | 3.98 % | 5.27 % | 2.96 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 123,113 | 70,372 | 47,199 | 10,913 | 14,451 | 8,123 | 0 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 12,311 | 70,372 | 23,600 | 10,913 | 14,451 | 8,123 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 12,311 | 35,186 | 23,600 | 10,913 | 14,451 | 8,123 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 12,311 | 23,457 | 23,600 | 10,913 | 14,451 | 8,123 | 0 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 12,311 | 23,457 | 15,733 | 10,913 | 14,451 | 8,123 | 0 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 12,311 | 17,593 | 15,733 | 10,913 | 14,451 | 8,123 | 0 |
6th divisor | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 12,311 | 14,074 | 15,733 | 10,913 | 14,451 | 8,123 | 0 |
7th divisor | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 12,311 | 14,074 | 11,800 | 10,913 | 14,451 | 8,123 | 0 |
8th divisor | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 12,311 | 14,074 | 11,800 | 10,913 | 7,226 | 8,123 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Jackie Baillie |
2 | Labour | Neil Bibby |
3 | Conservative | Jamie Greene |
4 | Labour | Mary Fee |
5 | Labour | Ken Macintosh |
6 | Conservative | Maurice Golden |
7 | Green | Ross Greer |