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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑9.71
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.89
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.53
Others 1.08 %  % ↓1.08

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.18
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓6.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.85
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.13
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.79
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.23

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.48 % 28.96 % 8.72 % 3.30 % 11.15 % 2.38 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 87,223 55,543 16,717 6,337 21,390 4,561 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,722 55,543 16,717 6,337 21,390 4,561 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,722 27,772 16,717 6,337 21,390 4,561 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 8,722 18,514 16,717 6,337 21,390 4,561 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,722 18,514 16,717 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
5th divisor 10 4 1 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,722 13,886 16,717 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,722 13,886 8,359 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 8,722 11,109 8,359 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 8,722 9,257 8,359 6,337 10,695 4,561 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Labour James Kelly
5 Conservative Adam Tomkins
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Labour Bill Butler

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 12,539 ↑2210 54.85 % ↑11.66
Labour Bill Butler 🎢 7,100 ↓3222 31.06 % ↓12.10
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,415 ↑404 10.56 % ↑2.15
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 807 ↓193 3.53 % ↓0.65
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,439 Swing: ↑11.88%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 14,468 ↑2550 57.03 % ↑11.58
Labour Soryia Siddique 7,103 ↓3223 28.00 % ↓11.38
Conservative Kyle Thornton 2,894 ↑484 11.41 % ↑2.22
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 903 ↓215 3.56 % ↓0.70
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,365 Swing: ↑11.48%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 11,020 ↑1942 40.83 % ↑3.23
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 7,610 ↑3179 28.19 % ↑9.84
Labour Michael Shanks 5,279 ↓2396 19.56 % ↓12.23
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,119 ↑354 7.85 % ↑0.54
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 964 ↓230 3.57 % ↓1.38
SNP HOLD Majority: 3,410 Swing: ↓3.30%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 10,430 ↑1838 53.85 % ↑12.00
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 6,799 ↓3085 35.10 % ↓13.04
Conservative John Anderson 1,467 ↑245 7.58 % ↑1.63
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 673 ↓160 3.47 % ↓0.59
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,631 Swing: ↑12.52%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 12,445 ↑2193 56.88 % ↑12.14
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 7,480 ↓3395 34.19 % ↓13.27
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,559 ↑261 7.12 % ↑1.46
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 396 ↓94 1.81 % ↓0.33
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,965 Swing: ↑12.71%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 9,660 ↑1702 54.18 % ↑12.70
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 6,904 ↓3133 38.72 % ↓13.60
Conservative Annie Wells 933 ↑156 5.23 % ↑1.18
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 333 ↓80 1.87 % ↓0.28
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,756 Swing: ↑13.15%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 12,295 ↑2167 59.81 % ↑12.05
Labour Thomas Rannachan 6,564 ↓2978 31.93 % ↓13.07
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,397 ↑234 6.79 % ↑1.31
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 300 ↓71 1.46 % ↓0.29
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,731 Swing: ↑12.56%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 14,939 ↑2633 64.99 % ↑10.56
Labour Fariha Thomas 5,473 ↓2484 23.81 % ↓11.39
Conservative Graham Hutchison 2,081 ↑348 9.05 % ↑1.38
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 494 ↓118 2.15 % ↓0.56
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,466 Swing: ↑10.98%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 13,001 ↑2291 51.89 % ↑12.37
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 8,591 ↓3898 34.28 % ↓11.80
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,517 ↑421 10.04 % ↑2.31
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 948 ↓226 3.78 % ↓0.55
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,410 Swing: ↑12.09%