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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑9.71
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.89
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.53
Others 1.08 %  % ↓1.08

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.18
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓6.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.85
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.13
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.79
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.23

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 46.62 % 10.28 % 14.27 % 13.54 % 8.14 % 7.15 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 89,294 19,686 27,331 25,922 15,588 13,695 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,162 19,686 27,331 12,961 15,588 13,695 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,162 19,686 13,666 12,961 15,588 13,695 0
3rd divisor 8 2 2 2 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,162 9,843 13,666 12,961 15,588 13,695 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,162 9,843 13,666 12,961 7,794 13,695 0
5th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 2 1
5th allocation 11,162 9,843 13,666 12,961 7,794 6,848 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 2 1
6th allocation 11,162 9,843 9,110 12,961 7,794 6,848 0
7th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 2 1
7th allocation 11,162 9,843 9,110 8,641 7,794 6,848 0
8th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,922 9,843 9,110 8,641 7,794 6,848 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Labour Rhoda Grant
3 Green John Finnie
4 UKIP David Coburn
5 Conservative Edward Mountain
6 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone
7 SNP Maree Todd

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 16,254 ↑2864 59.21 % ↑8.64
Conservative Donald Cameron 5,820 ↑973 21.20 % ↑2.89
Labour Mick Rice 2,780 ↓1261 10.12 % ↓5.14
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,600 ↓620 9.47 % ↓2.69
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,434 Swing: ↑2.88%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 16,804 ↑2961 57.50 % ↑9.10
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 🎢 5,155 ↓1230 17.64 % ↓4.69
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,741 ↓1697 12.80 % ↓6.21
Conservative Struan Mackie 3,523 ↑589 12.06 % ↑1.80
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,649 Swing: ↑6.89%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 20,479 ↑3609 62.10 % ↑10.56
Labour David Stewart 📃 4,901 ↓2224 14.86 % ↓6.91
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 4,559 ↑762 13.83 % ↑2.23
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 3,038 ↓725 9.21 % ↓2.29
SNP HOLD Majority: 15,578 Swing: ↑8.73%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 20,414 ↑3597 65.85 % ↑7.04
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 7,052 ↑1179 22.75 % ↑2.21
Labour Sean Morton 2,463 ↓1117 7.94 % ↓4.58
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 1,071 ↓256 3.46 % ↓1.18
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,362 Swing: ↑2.42%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 10,313 ↑1817 75.09 % ↑9.79
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,562 ↓1162 18.65 % ↓9.97
Conservative Ranald Fraser 💸 676 ↑113 4.92 % ↑0.59
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 184 ↓44 1.34 % ↓0.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,751 Swing: ↑9.88%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Donna Heddle 2,481 ↑437 41.56 % ↑16.49
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 2,351 ↓561 39.37 % ↑3.65
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 824 ↑138 13.80 % ↑5.38
Labour Gerry McGarvey 315 ↓143 5.28 % ↓0.34
SNP GAIN from Liberal Democrat Majority: 130 Swing: ↑6.42%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 3,602 ↓860 62.10 % ↑14.59
SNP Danus Skene 1,377 ↑243 23.73 % ↑11.65
Labour Robina Barton 426 ↓194 7.35 % ↑0.75
Conservative Cameron Smith 396 ↑66 6.83 % ↑3.32
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 2,225 Swing: ↑1.47%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 17,890 ↑3153 55.93 % ↑9.75
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 7,865 ↓1877 24.59 % ↓5.93
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,403 ↑569 10.64 % ↑1.76
Labour Linda Stewart 2,828 ↓1284 8.84 % ↓4.04
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,025 Swing: ↑7.84%