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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑9.71
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.89
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.53
Others 1.08 %  % ↓1.08

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.18
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓6.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.85
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.13
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.79
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.23

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.14 % 19.42 % 15.67 % 6.73 % 13.37 % 2.68 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 116,446 53,651 43,297 18,596 36,935 7,400 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,645 53,651 43,297 18,596 36,935 7,400 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,645 26,826 43,297 18,596 36,935 7,400 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,645 26,826 21,649 18,596 36,935 7,400 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,645 26,826 21,649 18,596 18,468 7,400 0
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,645 17,884 21,649 18,596 18,468 7,400 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,645 17,884 14,432 18,596 18,468 7,400 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,645 17,884 14,432 9,298 18,468 7,400 0
8th divisor 10 3 3 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 11,645 17,884 14,432 9,298 12,312 7,400 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Green Alison Johnstone
4 Labour Neil Findlay
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
7 Green Andy Wightman

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 20,277 ↑3573 65.94 % ↑11.60
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 7,678 ↓3484 24.97 % ↓11.34
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,265 ↑379 7.36 % ↑1.22
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 530 ↓126 1.72 % ↓0.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,599 Swing: ↑11.47%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alison Dickie 9,577 ↑1688 30.33 % ↑3.14
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 🎢 7,753 ↑3239 24.56 % ↑9.00
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 5,131 ↑858 16.25 % ↑1.52
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 4,898 ↓2223 15.52 % ↓9.02
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 4,212 ↓1005 13.34 % ↓4.64
SNP HOLD Majority: 1,824 Swing: ↓2.93%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 17,665 ↑3113 58.32 % ↑10.96
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 8,474 ↓3845 27.98 % ↓12.11
Conservative Nick Cook 3,158 ↑528 10.43 % ↑1.87
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 991 ↓236 3.27 % ↓0.72
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,191 Swing: ↑11.54%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 14,886 ↑2623 50.40 % ↑10.69
Labour Lesley Hinds 8,845 ↓4013 29.94 % ↓11.69
Conservative Iain McGill 3,516 ↑588 11.90 % ↑2.42
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 2,290 ↓546 7.75 % ↓1.43
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,041 Swing: ↑11.19%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 13,592 ↑2395 43.05 % ↑5.79
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 11,334 ↑1895 35.90 % ↑4.49
Labour Blair Heary 5,498 ↓2495 17.42 % ↓9.18
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 1,146 ↓274 3.63 % ↓1.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 2,258 Swing: ↑0.65%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 12,075 ↑2128 36.93 % ↑7.50
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 7,563 ↑1265 23.13 % ↑4.49
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 6,698 ↓1599 20.48 % ↓4.07
Labour Daniel Johnston 6,365 ↓2889 19.47 % ↓7.91
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,512 Swing: ↑1.50%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 14,525 ↑2560 44.01 % ↑8.24
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 🎢 7,489 ↓1787 22.69 % ↓5.04
Conservative Sandy Batho 6,060 ↑1013 18.36 % ↑3.27
Labour Cat Headley 4,928 ↓2236 14.93 % ↓6.49
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,036 Swing: ↑6.64%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 20,669 ↑3642 61.58 % ↑11.77
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 8,898 ↓4038 26.51 % ↓11.33
Conservative Charles Kennedy 3,177 ↑531 9.47 % ↑1.73
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 819 ↓196 2.44 % ↓0.53
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,771 Swing: ↑11.55%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 17,091 ↑3012 59.39 % ↑12.17
Labour Bernard Harkins 7,624 ↓3459 26.49 % ↓10.68
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 3,051 ↑510 10.60 % ↑2.08
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 1,012 ↓242 3.52 % ↓0.69
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,467 Swing: ↑11.43%