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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑9.71
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.89
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.53
Others 1.08 %  % ↓1.08

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.18
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓6.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.85
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.13
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.79
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.23

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 45.75 % 18.36 % 17.86 % 6.73 % 7.00 % 4.31 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 122,468 49,148 47,806 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,247 49,148 47,806 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,247 24,574 47,806 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,247 24,574 23,903 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,247 16,383 23,903 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,247 16,383 15,935 18,017 18,745 11,526 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,247 16,383 15,935 18,017 9,373 11,526 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,247 16,383 15,935 9,009 9,373 11,526 0
8th divisor 10 4 3 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,247 12,287 15,935 9,009 9,373 11,526 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Alex Rowley
2 Conservative Murdo Fraser
3 Labour Claire Baker
4 Conservative Liz Smith
5 Green Mark Ruskell
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Labour Thomas Docherty

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 16,088 ↑2835 57.98 % ↑9.64
Labour Craig Miller 6,634 ↓3010 23.91 % ↓11.27
Conservative Alexander Stewart 4,204 ↑703 15.15 % ↑2.38
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 822 ↓196 2.96 % ↓0.75
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,454 Swing: ↑10.46%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 12,963 ↑2284 53.74 % ↑12.14
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 8,203 ↓3723 34.01 % ↓12.45
Conservative Dave Dempsey 2,152 ↑360 8.92 % ↑1.94
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 805 ↓192 3.34 % ↓0.54
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,760 Swing: ↑12.29%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 13,365 ↑2355 48.23 % ↑10.65
Labour Cara Hilton 7,168 ↓3252 25.87 % ↓9.69
Liberal Democrat James Calder 4,663 ↓1113 16.83 % ↓2.88
Conservative James Reekie 2,513 ↑420 9.07 % ↑1.93
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,197 Swing: ↑10.17%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 15,270 ↑2691 56.83 % ↑11.59
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 8,527 ↓3870 31.74 % ↓12.85
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,410 ↑403 8.97 % ↑1.75
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 662 ↓158 2.46 % ↓0.49
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,743 Swing: ↑12.22%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 16,705 ↑2944 64.72 % ↑12.42
Labour Kay Morrison 6,585 ↓2988 25.51 % ↓10.87
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 2,013 ↑337 7.80 % ↑1.43
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 509 ↓121 1.97 % ↓0.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,120 Swing: ↑11.64%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 13,388 ↑2359 45.49 % ↑8.33
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 🎢 6,811 ↓1626 23.14 % ↓5.29
Conservative Huw Bell 6,746 ↑1128 22.92 % ↑3.99
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,485 ↓1128 8.44 % ↓3.73
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,577 Swing: ↑6.81%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 22,116 ↑3897 64.36 % ↑3.53
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 9,445 ↑1579 27.49 % ↑1.23
Labour Anna McEwan 1,838 ↓834 5.35 % ↓3.57
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 966 ↓230 2.81 % ↓1.18
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,671 Swing: ↑1.15%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 19,511 ↑3438 56.12 % ↑4.63
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 10,695 ↑1788 30.77 % ↑2.24
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,738 ↓1242 7.87 % ↓4.88
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 1,821 ↓435 5.24 % ↓1.99
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,816 Swing: ↑1.19%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 18,036 ↑3178 58.30 % ↑9.43
Labour Rebecca Bell 6,320 ↓2868 20.43 % ↓9.79
Conservative Dean Lockhart 5,536 ↑926 17.89 % ↑2.73
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 1,046 ↓250 3.38 % ↓0.88
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,716 Swing: ↑9.61%