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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑9.71
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.89
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.53
Others 1.08 %  % ↓1.08

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.18
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓6.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.85
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.13
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.79
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.23

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 52.73 % 11.92 % 17.64 % 7.74 % 6.38 % 3.59 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 147,717 33,382 49,410 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 13,429 33,382 49,410 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 13,429 33,382 24,705 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 13,429 16,691 24,705 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 13,429 16,691 16,470 21,686 17,874 10,060 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 2 1 1 1
5th allocation 13,429 16,691 16,470 10,843 17,874 10,060 0
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 13,429 16,691 16,470 10,843 8,937 10,060 0
7th divisor 11 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,429 11,127 16,470 10,843 8,937 10,060 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,429 11,127 12,353 10,843 8,937 10,060 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
5 Green Maggie Chapman
6 Labour Lewis MacDonald
7 Conservative Ross Thomson

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 12,210 ↑2152 50.20 % ↑10.21
Labour Lewis Macdonald 6,494 ↓2947 26.70 % ↓10.84
Conservative Tom Mason 3,722 ↑622 15.30 % ↑2.97
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 1,896 ↓453 7.80 % ↓1.54
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,716 Swing: ↑10.53%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 17,954 ↑3164 66.27 % ↑11.00
Labour Greg Williams 5,238 ↓2377 19.34 % ↓9.12
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,601 ↑435 9.60 % ↑1.51
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 💸 1,297 ↓309 4.79 % ↓1.21
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,716 Swing: ↑10.06%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 14,503 ↑2556 53.17 % ↑11.47
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 4,873 ↑815 17.86 % ↑3.70
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 4,032 ↓962 14.78 % ↓2.65
Labour Alison Evison 3,869 ↓1755 14.18 % ↓5.45
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,630 Swing: ↑3.89%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 23,712 ↑4179 70.20 % ↑5.70
Conservative Colin Clark 5,057 ↑846 14.97 % ↑1.07
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 3,421 ↓817 10.13 % ↓3.86
Labour Sarah Flavell 💸 1,585 ↓719 4.69 % ↓2.92
SNP HOLD Majority: 18,655 Swing: ↑2.31%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 14,793 ↑2607 49.04 % ↑6.49
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 7,237 ↑1210 23.99 % ↑2.94
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 🎢 6,518 ↓1556 21.61 % ↓6.59
Labour Sarah Duncan 1,616 ↓733 5.36 % ↓2.84
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,556 Swing: ↑1.78%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 16,582 ↑2922 59.64 % ↑4.82
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 7,654 ↑1280 27.53 % ↑1.95
Labour John Ruddy 2,174 ↓986 7.82 % ↓4.86
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 1,393 ↓333 5.01 % ↓1.92
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,928 Swing: ↑1.44%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 19,622 ↑3458 66.34 % ↑7.87
Conservative Kirstene Hair 6,702 ↑1121 22.66 % ↑2.47
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,547 ↓1156 8.61 % ↓4.79
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 706 ↓168 2.39 % ↓0.77
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,920 Swing: ↑2.70%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 20,408 ↑3596 71.58 % ↑4.34
Conservative Peter Chapman 5,514 ↑922 19.34 % ↑0.97
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,817 ↓825 6.37 % ↓4.20
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 773 ↓185 2.71 % ↓1.12
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,894 Swing: ↑1.69%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 20,079 ↑3538 72.18 % ↑7.95
Labour Richard McCready 4,032 ↓1830 14.49 % ↓8.27
Conservative Bill Bowman 3,062 ↑512 11.01 % ↑1.11
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 646 ↓154 2.32 % ↓0.79
SNP HOLD Majority: 16,047 Swing: ↑8.11%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 17,103 ↑3014 67.87 % ↑10.27
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 5,286 ↓2398 20.98 % ↓10.43
Conservative Nicola Ross 1,951 ↑326 7.74 % ↑1.10
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 858 ↓205 3.41 % ↓0.94
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,817 Swing: ↑10.35%