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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑9.71
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.89
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.53
Others 1.08 %  % ↓1.08

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.18
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓6.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.85
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.13
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.79
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.23

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 41.25 % 18.47 % 24.51 % 6.19 % 5.04 % 4.53 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 119,927 53,690 71,270 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,988 53,690 14,254 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,988 26,845 14,254 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,988 17,897 14,254 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 17,132 17,897 14,254 18,009 14,659 13,171 0
5th divisor 7 3 5 2 1 1 1
5th allocation 17,132 17,897 14,254 9,005 14,659 13,171 0
6th divisor 7 4 5 2 1 1 1
6th allocation 17,132 13,423 14,254 9,005 14,659 13,171 0
7th divisor 8 4 5 2 1 1 1
7th allocation 14,991 13,423 14,254 9,005 14,659 13,171 0
8th divisor 9 4 5 2 1 1 1
8th allocation 13,325 13,423 14,254 9,005 14,659 13,171 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
5 Labour Colin Smyth
6 SNP Emma Harper
7 SNP Paul Wheelhouse

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 15,607 ↑2610 43.40 % ↑4.46
SNP Jennifer Dunn 14,426 ↑2542 40.12 % ↑4.51
Labour Brian McGinley 5,351 ↓2428 14.88 % ↓8.43
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 576 ↓137 1.60 % ↓0.54
Conservative HOLD Majority: 1,181 Swing: ↓0.02%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 16,084 ↑2834 55.61 % ↑9.45
Labour Carol Mochan 7,339 ↓3330 25.37 % ↓11.80
Conservative Lee Lyons 4,995 ↑835 17.27 % ↑2.78
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 504 ↓120 1.74 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,745 Swing: ↑10.62%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 17,738 ↑3126 58.29 % ↑9.48
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 7,151 ↓3245 23.50 % ↓11.23
Conservative Alex Allison 4,770 ↑798 15.67 % ↑2.40
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 773 ↓184 2.54 % ↓0.66
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,587 Swing: ↑10.36%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 11,369 ↑1901 36.23 % ↑6.55
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 10,178 ↑1794 32.44 % ↑6.15
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 8,684 ↓3940 27.67 % ↓11.91
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,146 ↓273 3.65 % ↓0.80
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,191 Swing: ↑0.20%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 15,034 ↑2649 47.55 % ↑9.06
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 8,623 ↓3913 27.27 % ↓11.69
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 6,417 ↑1073 20.30 % ↑3.69
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 💸 1,544 ↓368 4.88 % ↓1.06
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,411 Swing: ↑10.38%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 15,530 ↑2597 50.36 % ↑5.48
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 🎢 9,225 ↑1626 29.91 % ↑3.54
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 🎢 4,029 ↓961 13.06 % ↓4.26
Labour Barrie Cunning 2,054 ↓932 6.66 % ↓3.70
Conservative HOLD Majority: 6,305 Swing: ↑0.97%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 13,294 ↑2223 41.84 % ↑4.93
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 12,393 ↑2184 39.00 % ↑4.97
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 5,471 ↓2483 17.22 % ↓9.30
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 616 ↓147 1.94 % ↓0.60
Conservative HOLD Majority: 901 Swing: ↓0.02%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 20,593 ↑3629 63.15 % ↑9.90
Labour Dave Meechan 7,547 ↓3424 23.14 % ↓11.30
Conservative Brian Whittle 3,973 ↑664 12.19 % ↑1.80
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 496 ↓118 1.52 % ↓0.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,046 Swing: ↑10.60%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 16,819 ↑2964 52.27 % ↑8.76
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 7,210 ↓1721 22.41 % ↓5.64
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,495 ↑752 13.97 % ↑2.21
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,654 ↓1658 11.36 % ↓5.32
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,609 Swing: ↑7.20%