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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

BMG Research/Herald, 18th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by BMG Research and published in the Herald on 18th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑9.71
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.89
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.79
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.53
Others 1.08 %  % ↓1.08

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↑2.18
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓6.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.85
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1
Green 4.37 %  % ↑3.13
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑2.79
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.23

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.90 % 25.67 % 17.22 % 3.98 % 5.27 % 2.96 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 123,113 70,372 47,199 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,311 70,372 23,600 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,311 35,186 23,600 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,311 23,457 23,600 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,311 23,457 15,733 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 12,311 17,593 15,733 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
6th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 12,311 14,074 15,733 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
7th divisor 10 5 4 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 12,311 14,074 11,800 10,913 14,451 8,123 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,311 14,074 11,800 10,913 7,226 8,123 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Labour Ken Macintosh
6 Conservative Maurice Golden
7 Green Ross Greer

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 14,905 ↑2627 54.00 % ↑10.72
Labour Gail Casey 7,954 ↓3610 28.82 % ↓11.94
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,312 ↑554 12.00 % ↑2.28
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,428 ↓341 5.17 % ↓1.07
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,951 Swing: ↑11.33%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 18,863 ↑3324 61.60 % ↑8.99
Labour Johanna Baxter 6,481 ↓2941 21.16 % ↓10.74
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 4,842 ↑810 15.81 % ↑2.16
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 438 ↓105 1.43 % ↓0.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,382 Swing: ↑9.87%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 13,345 ↑2352 60.71 % ↑10.87
Labour Joe Cullinane 5,947 ↓2698 27.05 % ↓12.15
Conservative William McClure 2,247 ↑376 10.22 % ↑1.74
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 442 ↓105 2.01 % ↓0.47
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,398 Swing: ↑11.51%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 13,260 ↑2337 49.72 % ↑11.40
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 8,641 ↓3921 32.40 % ↓11.66
Conservative Maurice Corry 4,077 ↑682 15.29 % ↑3.38
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 693 ↓165 2.60 % ↓0.41
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,619 Swing: ↑11.53%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 12,788 ↑2138 40.45 % ↑7.09
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 9,441 ↑1664 29.86 % ↑5.50
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 8,710 ↓3952 27.55 % ↓12.11
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 674 ↓161 2.13 % ↓0.49
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,347 Swing: ↑0.79%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 14,417 ↑2541 53.57 % ↑11.47
Labour Siobhan McCready 8,521 ↓3866 31.66 % ↓12.25
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,415 ↑404 8.97 % ↑1.84
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,561 ↓373 5.80 % ↓1.06
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,896 Swing: ↑11.86%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 13,248 ↑2335 53.63 % ↑10.98
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 7,336 ↓3329 29.70 % ↓11.98
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,677 ↑448 10.84 % ↑2.13
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,439 ↓344 5.83 % ↓1.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,912 Swing: ↑11.48%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 13,972 ↑2462 50.17 % ↑8.31
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 6,841 ↓3105 24.57 % ↓11.60
Conservative David Wilson 6,591 ↑1102 23.67 % ↑3.71
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 444 ↓106 1.59 % ↓0.41
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,131 Swing: ↑9.96%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 12,571 ↑2215 49.23 % ↑10.74
Labour Paul O'Kane 8,896 ↓4037 34.84 % ↓13.22
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,503 ↑586 13.72 % ↑2.88
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 567 ↓135 2.22 % ↓0.39
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,675 Swing: ↑11.98%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 17,308 ↑3050 51.97 % ↑9.73
Labour Margaret McCarthy 8,568 ↓3888 25.73 % ↓11.17
Conservative Andrew Polson 5,329 ↑891 16.00 % ↑2.85
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 2,099 ↓501 6.30 % ↓1.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,740 Swing: ↑10.45%