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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 69 53 66 ↑13 16 3 ↓13
Labour 37 24 ↓13 15 ↓15 22 24 ↑2
Conservative 15 19 ↑4 3 5 ↑2 12 14 ↑2
Green 2 10 ↑8 1 ↑1 2 9 ↑7
Lib Dem 5 6 ↑1 2 1 ↓1 3 5 ↑2
UKIP 1 ↑1 1 ↑1
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Orkney Islands SNP 138 GAIN over Liberal Democrat
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 253 HOLD over Green
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative 1,041 HOLD over SNP
Dumfriesshire Conservative 1,288 GAIN over SNP
Edinburgh Central Green 1,299 GAIN over SNP
Ayr Conservative 1,338 HOLD over SNP
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 1,969 HOLD over Conservative
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 2,078 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Provan SNP 2,466 GAIN over Labour
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 2,687 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Highlands and Islands SNP Green 238 477
Mid Scotland and Fife Conservative Labour 175 525
Lothian Labour Green 574 1,722
West Conservative Labour 2,168 10,842
Central Labour SNP 1,094 10,944
North East Labour SNP 3,068 33,739
Glasgow Labour Labour Same party would win the next seat
South SNP SNP Same party would win the next seat