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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 51.70 % 28.46 % 9.20 % 1.83 % 6.16 % 2.65 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 108,210 59,577 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,821 59,577 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,821 29,789 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,821 19,859 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
4th divisor 10 4 1 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,821 14,894 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,821 14,894 9,629 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 10,821 11,915 9,629 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,821 11,915 9,629 3,831 6,451 5,545 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 10,821 9,930 9,629 3,831 6,451 5,545 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Labour Mark Griffin
4 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Green Kirsten Robb
7 Labour Craig Martin

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.28 % 27.49 % 8.60 % 3.20 % 14.86 % 2.57 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 83,070 52,766 16,511 6,133 28,520 4,931 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,307 52,766 16,511 6,133 28,520 4,931 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,307 26,383 16,511 6,133 28,520 4,931 0
3rd divisor 10 2 1 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 8,307 26,383 16,511 6,133 14,260 4,931 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,307 17,589 16,511 6,133 14,260 4,931 0
5th divisor 10 4 1 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,307 13,192 16,511 6,133 14,260 4,931 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,307 13,192 8,256 6,133 14,260 4,931 0
7th divisor 10 4 2 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 8,307 13,192 8,256 6,133 9,507 4,931 0
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 8,307 10,553 8,256 6,133 9,507 4,931 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Green Patrick Harvie
3 Labour Johann Lamont
4 Labour James Kelly
5 Conservative Adam Tomkins
6 Green Zara Kitson
7 Labour Pauline McNeill

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.43 % 9.77 % 14.10 % 13.11 % 10.86 % 7.73 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 — — 1 — — —
Votes 85,042 18,701 26,993 25,086 20,784 14,805 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,630 18,701 26,993 12,543 20,784 14,805 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,630 18,701 13,497 12,543 20,784 14,805 0
3rd divisor 8 1 2 2 2 1 1
3rd allocation 10,630 18,701 13,497 12,543 10,392 14,805 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 10,630 9,351 13,497 12,543 10,392 14,805 0
5th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 2 1
5th allocation 10,630 9,351 13,497 12,543 10,392 7,403 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 2 1
6th allocation 10,630 9,351 8,998 12,543 10,392 7,403 0
7th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 2 1
7th allocation 10,630 9,351 8,998 8,362 10,392 7,403 0
8th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,449 9,351 8,998 8,362 10,392 7,403 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Green John Finnie
3 Labour Rhoda Grant
4 UKIP David Coburn
5 Conservative Edward Mountain
6 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone
7 SNP Maree Todd

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 39.63 % 18.21 % 15.28 % 6.43 % 17.60 % 2.86 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 8 — — — 1 — —
Votes 110,901 50,969 42,762 17,996 49,247 8,000 0
1st divisor 9 1 1 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 12,322 50,969 42,762 17,996 24,624 8,000 0
2nd divisor 9 2 1 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 12,322 25,485 42,762 17,996 24,624 8,000 0
3rd divisor 9 2 2 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,322 25,485 21,381 17,996 24,624 8,000 0
4th divisor 9 3 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,322 16,990 21,381 17,996 24,624 8,000 0
5th divisor 9 3 2 1 3 1 1
5th allocation 12,322 16,990 21,381 17,996 16,416 8,000 0
6th divisor 9 3 3 1 3 1 1
6th allocation 12,322 16,990 14,254 17,996 16,416 8,000 0
7th divisor 9 3 3 2 3 1 1
7th allocation 12,322 16,990 14,254 8,998 16,416 8,000 0
8th divisor 9 4 3 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 12,322 12,742 14,254 8,998 16,416 8,000 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Labour Neil Findlay
4 Green Andy Wightman
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.94 % 17.59 % 17.79 % 6.57 % 9.42 % 4.69 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 116,636 46,691 47,216 17,436 24,993 12,461 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,664 46,691 47,216 17,436 24,993 12,461 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,664 46,691 23,608 17,436 24,993 12,461 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,664 23,346 23,608 17,436 24,993 12,461 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,664 23,346 23,608 17,436 12,497 12,461 0
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,664 23,346 15,739 17,436 12,497 12,461 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,664 15,564 15,739 17,436 12,497 12,461 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,664 15,564 15,739 8,718 12,497 12,461 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,664 15,564 11,804 8,718 12,497 12,461 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Green Mark Ruskell
4 Conservative Liz Smith
5 Labour Claire Baker
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Conservative Dean Lockhart

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 50.81 % 11.45 % 17.62 % 7.58 % 8.61 % 3.93 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10 — — — — — —
Votes 140,683 31,713 48,800 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,789 31,713 48,800 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,789 31,713 24,400 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,789 15,857 24,400 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,789 15,857 16,267 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 12,789 15,857 16,267 20,986 11,916 10,876 0
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,789 15,857 16,267 10,493 11,916 10,876 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,789 15,857 12,200 10,493 11,916 10,876 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,789 10,571 12,200 10,493 11,916 10,876 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 39.82 % 17.78 % 24.54 % 6.08 % 6.81 % 4.96 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 — 4 — — — —
Votes 114,216 51,006 70,390 17,428 19,545 14,239 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,036 51,006 14,078 17,428 19,545 14,239 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,036 25,503 14,078 17,428 19,545 14,239 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,036 17,002 14,078 17,428 19,545 14,239 0
4th divisor 6 3 5 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 19,036 17,002 14,078 17,428 9,773 14,239 0
5th divisor 7 3 5 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 16,317 17,002 14,078 17,428 9,773 14,239 0
6th divisor 7 3 5 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 16,317 17,002 14,078 8,714 9,773 14,239 0
7th divisor 7 4 5 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 16,317 12,752 14,078 8,714 9,773 14,239 0
8th divisor 8 4 5 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 14,277 12,752 14,078 8,714 9,773 14,239 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
4 SNP Joan McAlpine
5 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
6 Labour Colin Smyth
7 SNP Emma Harper

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.53 % 24.82 % 17.31 % 3.92 % 7.15 % 3.26 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — 1 — — — —
Votes 117,251 66,854 46,617 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,725 66,854 23,309 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,725 33,427 23,309 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,725 22,285 23,309 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,725 22,285 15,539 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,725 16,714 15,539 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
6th divisor 10 4 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,725 16,714 15,539 10,561 9,634 8,781 0
7th divisor 10 5 3 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,725 13,371 15,539 10,561 9,634 8,781 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,725 13,371 11,654 10,561 9,634 8,781 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Green Ross Greer
6 Labour Ken Macintosh
7 Conservative Maurice Golden