Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016
These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
Regions
Central | C | ||||||||||
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Glasgow | C | ||||||||||
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Highlands and Islands | C | ||||||||||
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Lothian | C | ||||||||||
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Mid Scotland and Fife | C | ||||||||||
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North East | C | ||||||||||
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South | C | ||||||||||
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West | C | ||||||||||
R |
Central
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 51.70 % | 28.46 % | 9.20 % | 1.83 % | 6.16 % | 2.65 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 108,210 | 59,577 | 19,258 | 3,831 | 12,902 | 5,545 | 0 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 10,821 | 59,577 | 19,258 | 3,831 | 12,902 | 5,545 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 10,821 | 29,789 | 19,258 | 3,831 | 12,902 | 5,545 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 10,821 | 19,859 | 19,258 | 3,831 | 12,902 | 5,545 | 0 |
4th divisor | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 10,821 | 14,894 | 19,258 | 3,831 | 12,902 | 5,545 | 0 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 10,821 | 14,894 | 9,629 | 3,831 | 12,902 | 5,545 | 0 |
6th divisor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 10,821 | 11,915 | 9,629 | 3,831 | 12,902 | 5,545 | 0 |
7th divisor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 10,821 | 11,915 | 9,629 | 3,831 | 6,451 | 5,545 | 0 |
8th divisor | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 10,821 | 9,930 | 9,629 | 3,831 | 6,451 | 5,545 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Richard Leonard |
2 | Labour | Monica Lennon |
3 | Labour | Mark Griffin |
4 | Conservative | Margaret Mitchell |
5 | Labour | Elaine Smith |
6 | Green | Kirsten Robb |
7 | Labour | Craig Martin |
Glasgow
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 43.28 % | 27.49 % | 8.60 % | 3.20 % | 14.86 % | 2.57 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 83,070 | 52,766 | 16,511 | 6,133 | 28,520 | 4,931 | 0 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 8,307 | 52,766 | 16,511 | 6,133 | 28,520 | 4,931 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 8,307 | 26,383 | 16,511 | 6,133 | 28,520 | 4,931 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 8,307 | 26,383 | 16,511 | 6,133 | 14,260 | 4,931 | 0 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 8,307 | 17,589 | 16,511 | 6,133 | 14,260 | 4,931 | 0 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 8,307 | 13,192 | 16,511 | 6,133 | 14,260 | 4,931 | 0 |
6th divisor | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 8,307 | 13,192 | 8,256 | 6,133 | 14,260 | 4,931 | 0 |
7th divisor | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 8,307 | 13,192 | 8,256 | 6,133 | 9,507 | 4,931 | 0 |
8th divisor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 8,307 | 10,553 | 8,256 | 6,133 | 9,507 | 4,931 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Anas Sarwar |
2 | Green | Patrick Harvie |
3 | Labour | Johann Lamont |
4 | Labour | James Kelly |
5 | Conservative | Adam Tomkins |
6 | Green | Zara Kitson |
7 | Labour | Pauline McNeill |
Highlands and Islands
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 44.43 % | 9.77 % | 14.10 % | 13.11 % | 10.86 % | 7.73 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Votes | 85,042 | 18,701 | 26,993 | 25,086 | 20,784 | 14,805 | 0 |
1st divisor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 10,630 | 18,701 | 26,993 | 12,543 | 20,784 | 14,805 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 10,630 | 18,701 | 13,497 | 12,543 | 20,784 | 14,805 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 10,630 | 18,701 | 13,497 | 12,543 | 10,392 | 14,805 | 0 |
4th divisor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 10,630 | 9,351 | 13,497 | 12,543 | 10,392 | 14,805 | 0 |
5th divisor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
5th allocation | 10,630 | 9,351 | 13,497 | 12,543 | 10,392 | 7,403 | 0 |
6th divisor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
6th allocation | 10,630 | 9,351 | 8,998 | 12,543 | 10,392 | 7,403 | 0 |
7th divisor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
7th allocation | 10,630 | 9,351 | 8,998 | 8,362 | 10,392 | 7,403 | 0 |
8th divisor | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
8th allocation | 9,449 | 9,351 | 8,998 | 8,362 | 10,392 | 7,403 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Douglas Ross |
2 | Green | John Finnie |
3 | Labour | Rhoda Grant |
4 | UKIP | David Coburn |
5 | Conservative | Edward Mountain |
6 | Liberal Democrat | Jamie Stone |
7 | SNP | Maree Todd |
Lothian
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 39.63 % | 18.21 % | 15.28 % | 6.43 % | 17.60 % | 2.86 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 8 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
Votes | 110,901 | 50,969 | 42,762 | 17,996 | 49,247 | 8,000 | 0 |
1st divisor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 12,322 | 50,969 | 42,762 | 17,996 | 24,624 | 8,000 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 12,322 | 25,485 | 42,762 | 17,996 | 24,624 | 8,000 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 12,322 | 25,485 | 21,381 | 17,996 | 24,624 | 8,000 | 0 |
4th divisor | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 12,322 | 16,990 | 21,381 | 17,996 | 24,624 | 8,000 | 0 |
5th divisor | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 12,322 | 16,990 | 21,381 | 17,996 | 16,416 | 8,000 | 0 |
6th divisor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 12,322 | 16,990 | 14,254 | 17,996 | 16,416 | 8,000 | 0 |
7th divisor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 12,322 | 16,990 | 14,254 | 8,998 | 16,416 | 8,000 | 0 |
8th divisor | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 12,322 | 12,742 | 14,254 | 8,998 | 16,416 | 8,000 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Kezia Dugdale |
2 | Conservative | Ruth Davidson |
3 | Labour | Neil Findlay |
4 | Green | Andy Wightman |
5 | Conservative | Miles Briggs |
6 | Liberal Democrat | Alex Cole-Hamilton |
7 | Labour | Sarah Boyack |
Mid Scotland and Fife
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 43.94 % | 17.59 % | 17.79 % | 6.57 % | 9.42 % | 4.69 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 116,636 | 46,691 | 47,216 | 17,436 | 24,993 | 12,461 | 0 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 11,664 | 46,691 | 47,216 | 17,436 | 24,993 | 12,461 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 11,664 | 46,691 | 23,608 | 17,436 | 24,993 | 12,461 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 11,664 | 23,346 | 23,608 | 17,436 | 24,993 | 12,461 | 0 |
4th divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 11,664 | 23,346 | 23,608 | 17,436 | 12,497 | 12,461 | 0 |
5th divisor | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 11,664 | 23,346 | 15,739 | 17,436 | 12,497 | 12,461 | 0 |
6th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 11,664 | 15,564 | 15,739 | 17,436 | 12,497 | 12,461 | 0 |
7th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 11,664 | 15,564 | 15,739 | 8,718 | 12,497 | 12,461 | 0 |
8th divisor | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 11,664 | 15,564 | 11,804 | 8,718 | 12,497 | 12,461 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Murdo Fraser |
2 | Labour | Alex Rowley |
3 | Green | Mark Ruskell |
4 | Conservative | Liz Smith |
5 | Labour | Claire Baker |
6 | Liberal Democrat | Willie Rennie |
7 | Conservative | Dean Lockhart |
North East
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 50.81 % | 11.45 % | 17.62 % | 7.58 % | 8.61 % | 3.93 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 140,683 | 31,713 | 48,800 | 20,986 | 23,832 | 10,876 | 0 |
1st divisor | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 12,789 | 31,713 | 48,800 | 20,986 | 23,832 | 10,876 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 12,789 | 31,713 | 24,400 | 20,986 | 23,832 | 10,876 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 12,789 | 15,857 | 24,400 | 20,986 | 23,832 | 10,876 | 0 |
4th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 12,789 | 15,857 | 16,267 | 20,986 | 23,832 | 10,876 | 0 |
5th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 12,789 | 15,857 | 16,267 | 20,986 | 11,916 | 10,876 | 0 |
6th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 12,789 | 15,857 | 16,267 | 10,493 | 11,916 | 10,876 | 0 |
7th divisor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 12,789 | 15,857 | 12,200 | 10,493 | 11,916 | 10,876 | 0 |
8th divisor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 12,789 | 10,571 | 12,200 | 10,493 | 11,916 | 10,876 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Alex Johnstone |
2 | Labour | Jenny Marra |
3 | Conservative | Alexander Burnett |
4 | Green | Maggie Chapman |
5 | Liberal Democrat | Mike Rumbles |
6 | Conservative | Ross Thomson |
7 | Labour | Lewis MacDonald |
South
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 39.82 % | 17.78 % | 24.54 % | 6.08 % | 6.81 % | 4.96 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 5 | — | 4 | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 114,216 | 51,006 | 70,390 | 17,428 | 19,545 | 14,239 | 0 |
1st divisor | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 19,036 | 51,006 | 14,078 | 17,428 | 19,545 | 14,239 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 19,036 | 25,503 | 14,078 | 17,428 | 19,545 | 14,239 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 19,036 | 17,002 | 14,078 | 17,428 | 19,545 | 14,239 | 0 |
4th divisor | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 19,036 | 17,002 | 14,078 | 17,428 | 9,773 | 14,239 | 0 |
5th divisor | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 16,317 | 17,002 | 14,078 | 17,428 | 9,773 | 14,239 | 0 |
6th divisor | 7 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 16,317 | 17,002 | 14,078 | 8,714 | 9,773 | 14,239 | 0 |
7th divisor | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 16,317 | 12,752 | 14,078 | 8,714 | 9,773 | 14,239 | 0 |
8th divisor | 8 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 14,277 | 12,752 | 14,078 | 8,714 | 9,773 | 14,239 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Iain Gray |
2 | Labour | Claudia Beamish |
3 | Green | Sarah Beattie-Smith |
4 | SNP | Joan McAlpine |
5 | Liberal Democrat | Jim Hume |
6 | Labour | Colin Smyth |
7 | SNP | Emma Harper |
West
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 43.53 % | 24.82 % | 17.31 % | 3.92 % | 7.15 % | 3.26 % | 0.00 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 117,251 | 66,854 | 46,617 | 10,561 | 19,268 | 8,781 | 0 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 11,725 | 66,854 | 23,309 | 10,561 | 19,268 | 8,781 | 0 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 11,725 | 33,427 | 23,309 | 10,561 | 19,268 | 8,781 | 0 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 11,725 | 22,285 | 23,309 | 10,561 | 19,268 | 8,781 | 0 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 11,725 | 22,285 | 15,539 | 10,561 | 19,268 | 8,781 | 0 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 11,725 | 16,714 | 15,539 | 10,561 | 19,268 | 8,781 | 0 |
6th divisor | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 11,725 | 16,714 | 15,539 | 10,561 | 9,634 | 8,781 | 0 |
7th divisor | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 11,725 | 13,371 | 15,539 | 10,561 | 9,634 | 8,781 | 0 |
8th divisor | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 11,725 | 13,371 | 11,654 | 10,561 | 9,634 | 8,781 | 0 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Jackie Baillie |
2 | Labour | Neil Bibby |
3 | Conservative | Jamie Greene |
4 | Labour | Mary Fee |
5 | Green | Ross Greer |
6 | Labour | Ken Macintosh |
7 | Conservative | Maurice Golden |