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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 51.70 % 28.46 % 9.20 % 1.83 % 6.16 % 2.65 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 108,210 59,577 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,821 59,577 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,821 29,789 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,821 19,859 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
4th divisor 10 4 1 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,821 14,894 19,258 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,821 14,894 9,629 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 10,821 11,915 9,629 3,831 12,902 5,545 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,821 11,915 9,629 3,831 6,451 5,545 0
8th divisor 10 6 2 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 10,821 9,930 9,629 3,831 6,451 5,545 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Labour Mark Griffin
4 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Green Kirsten Robb
7 Labour Craig Martin

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 13,729 ↑1745 61.42 % ↑11.27
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 6,615 ↓3368 29.59 % ↓12.19
Conservative Eric Holford 1,606 ↑210 7.19 % ↑1.35
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 402 ↓129 1.80 % ↓0.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,114 Swing: ↑11.73%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 10,591 ↑1346 49.57 % ↑9.86
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 7,904 ↓4024 36.99 % ↓14.25
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,505 ↑197 7.04 % ↑1.42
Green John Wilson 📃 1,136 ↑640 5.32 % ↑3.19
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 229 ↓73 1.07 % ↓0.23
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,687 Swing: ↑12.05%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 15,575 ↑1980 65.17 % ↑11.34
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 6,716 ↓3420 28.10 % ↓12.04
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,330 ↑174 5.56 % ↑0.98
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 278 ↓89 1.16 % ↓0.29
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,859 Swing: ↑11.69%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 16,450 ↑2091 59.54 % ↑11.53
Labour LizAnne Handibode 8,223 ↓4187 29.76 % ↓11.73
Conservative Graham Simpson 2,600 ↑340 9.41 % ↑1.85
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 354 ↓114 1.28 % ↓0.28
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,227 Swing: ↑11.63%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 16,385 ↑2083 61.14 % ↑10.37
Labour Craig Martin 🎢 7,134 ↓3633 26.62 % ↓11.60
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 2,729 ↑357 10.18 % ↑1.76
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 550 ↓177 2.05 % ↓0.53
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,251 Swing: ↑10.98%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 17,880 ↑2273 65.49 % ↑10.14
Labour Mandy Telford 6,535 ↓3327 23.94 % ↓11.03
Conservative Alison Harris 2,400 ↑314 8.79 % ↑1.39
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 487 ↓157 1.79 % ↓0.49
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,345 Swing: ↑10.59%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 13,979 ↑1777 58.26 % ↑10.13
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 6,619 ↓3370 27.59 % ↓11.81
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 2,930 ↑383 12.21 % ↑2.16
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 466 ↓150 1.94 % ↓0.49
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,360 Swing: ↑10.97%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 11,601 ↑1475 55.25 % ↑13.84
Labour John Pentland 🛋 7,099 ↓3614 33.81 % ↓10.00
Conservative Megan Gallacher 2,017 ↑264 9.61 % ↑2.44
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 278 ↓89 1.32 % ↓0.18
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,502 Swing: ↑11.92%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 12,392 ↑1575 54.19 % ↑10.91
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 7,641 ↓3890 33.41 % ↓12.72
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,436 ↑319 10.65 % ↑2.18
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 401 ↓129 1.75 % ↓0.37
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,751 Swing: ↑11.82%