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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.28 % 27.49 % 8.60 % 3.20 % 14.86 % 2.57 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 83,070 52,766 16,511 6,133 28,520 4,931 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 8,307 52,766 16,511 6,133 28,520 4,931 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 8,307 26,383 16,511 6,133 28,520 4,931 0
3rd divisor 10 2 1 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 8,307 26,383 16,511 6,133 14,260 4,931 0
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 8,307 17,589 16,511 6,133 14,260 4,931 0
5th divisor 10 4 1 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 8,307 13,192 16,511 6,133 14,260 4,931 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 8,307 13,192 8,256 6,133 14,260 4,931 0
7th divisor 10 4 2 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 8,307 13,192 8,256 6,133 9,507 4,931 0
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 8,307 10,553 8,256 6,133 9,507 4,931 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Green Patrick Harvie
3 Labour Johann Lamont
4 Labour James Kelly
5 Conservative Adam Tomkins
6 Green Zara Kitson
7 Labour Pauline McNeill

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 11,833 ↑1504 54.42 % ↑11.23
Labour Bill Butler 6,840 ↓3482 31.45 % ↓11.71
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,314 ↑303 10.64 % ↑2.23
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 757 ↓243 3.48 % ↓0.70
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,993 Swing: ↑11.47%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 13,654 ↑1736 56.62 % ↑11.17
Labour Soryia Siddique 6,842 ↓3484 28.37 % ↓11.01
Conservative Kyle Thornton 2,773 ↑363 11.50 % ↑2.31
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 846 ↓272 3.51 % ↓0.75
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,812 Swing: ↑11.09%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Sandra White 🛋 10,400 ↑1322 36.40 % ↓1.20
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 🎢 10,147 ↑5716 35.52 % ↑17.17
Labour Michael Shanks 5,086 ↓2589 17.80 % ↓13.99
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,031 ↑266 7.11 % ↓0.20
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 904 ↓290 3.16 % ↓1.79
SNP HOLD Majority: 253 Swing: ↓9.19%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 9,843 ↑1251 53.41 % ↑11.56
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 6,549 ↓3335 35.54 % ↓12.60
Conservative John Anderson 1,406 ↑184 7.63 % ↑1.68
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 630 ↓203 3.42 % ↓0.64
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,294 Swing: ↑12.08%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 11,745 ↑1493 56.43 % ↑11.69
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 7,206 ↓3669 34.62 % ↓12.84
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,493 ↑195 7.17 % ↑1.51
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 371 ↓119 1.78 % ↓0.36
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,539 Swing: ↑12.27%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 9,117 ↑1159 53.71 % ↑12.23
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 6,651 ↓3386 39.18 % ↓13.14
Conservative Annie Wells 894 ↑117 5.27 % ↑1.22
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 313 ↓100 1.84 % ↓0.31
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 2,466 Swing: ↑12.69%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 11,603 ↑1475 59.36 % ↑11.60
Labour Thomas Rannachan 6,323 ↓3219 32.35 % ↓12.65
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,338 ↑175 6.85 % ↑1.37
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 281 ↓90 1.44 % ↓0.31
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,280 Swing: ↑12.12%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 14,098 ↑1792 64.59 % ↑10.16
Labour Fariha Thomas 5,272 ↓2685 24.16 % ↓11.04
Conservative Graham Hutchison 1,994 ↑261 9.13 % ↑1.46
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 463 ↓149 2.12 % ↓0.59
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,826 Swing: ↑10.60%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 12,270 ↑1560 51.46 % ↑11.94
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 8,275 ↓4214 34.71 % ↓11.37
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,411 ↑315 10.11 % ↑2.38
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 889 ↓285 3.73 % ↓0.60
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,995 Swing: ↑11.65%