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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Highlands and Islands region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Highlands and Islands: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 44.43 % 9.77 % 14.10 % 13.11 % 10.86 % 7.73 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 7 1
Votes 85,042 18,701 26,993 25,086 20,784 14,805 0
1st divisor 8 1 1 2 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,630 18,701 26,993 12,543 20,784 14,805 0
2nd divisor 8 1 2 2 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,630 18,701 13,497 12,543 20,784 14,805 0
3rd divisor 8 1 2 2 2 1 1
3rd allocation 10,630 18,701 13,497 12,543 10,392 14,805 0
4th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 1 1
4th allocation 10,630 9,351 13,497 12,543 10,392 14,805 0
5th divisor 8 2 2 2 2 2 1
5th allocation 10,630 9,351 13,497 12,543 10,392 7,403 0
6th divisor 8 2 3 2 2 2 1
6th allocation 10,630 9,351 8,998 12,543 10,392 7,403 0
7th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 2 1
7th allocation 10,630 9,351 8,998 8,362 10,392 7,403 0
8th divisor 9 2 3 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,449 9,351 8,998 8,362 10,392 7,403 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Green John Finnie
3 Labour Rhoda Grant
4 UKIP David Coburn
5 Conservative Edward Mountain
6 Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone
7 SNP Maree Todd

Constituencies in Highlands and Islands region

Argyll & Bute

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Russell 🛋 15,340 ↑1950 58.93 % ↑8.36
Conservative Donald Cameron 5,576 ↑729 21.42 % ↑3.11
Labour Mick Rice 2,678 ↓1363 10.29 % ↓4.97
Liberal Democrat Alan Reid 2,437 ↓783 9.36 % ↓2.80
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,764 Swing: ↑2.62%

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Ross 15,859 ↑2016 57.31 % ↑8.91
Liberal Democrat Jamie Stone 🎢 4,833 ↓1552 17.47 % ↓4.86
Labour Leah Franchetti 3,603 ↓1835 13.02 % ↓5.99
Conservative Struan Mackie 3,375 ↑441 12.20 % ↑1.94
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,026 Swing: ↑6.88%

Inverness & Nairn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fergus Ewing 🛋 19,327 ↑2457 61.82 % ↑10.28
Labour David Stewart 📃 4,721 ↓2404 15.10 % ↓6.67
Conservative Edward Mountain 🎢 4,368 ↑571 13.97 % ↑2.37
Liberal Democrat Carolyn Caddick 2,848 ↓915 9.11 % ↓2.39
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,606 Swing: ↑8.47%

Moray

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lochhead 🛋 19,266 ↑2449 65.53 % ↑6.72
Conservative Douglas Ross 🎢 6,757 ↑884 22.98 % ↑2.44
Labour Sean Morton 2,372 ↓1208 8.07 % ↓4.45
Liberal Democrat Jamie Paterson 💸 1,004 ↓323 3.42 % ↓1.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,509 Swing: ↑2.14%

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alasdair Allan 🛋 9,733 ↑1237 74.74 % ↑9.44
Labour Rhoda Grant 📃 🎢 2,468 ↓1256 18.95 % ↓9.67
Conservative Ranald Fraser 💸 648 ↑85 4.97 % ↑0.64
Liberal Democrat Ken MacLeod 💸 173 ↓55 1.33 % ↓0.42
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,265 Swing: ↑9.55%

Orkney Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Donna Heddle 2,342 ↑298 41.53 % ↑16.46
Liberal Democrat Liam McArthur 🛋 2,204 ↓708 39.09 % ↑3.37
Conservative Jamie Halcro Johnston 789 ↑103 14.00 % ↑5.58
Labour Gerry McGarvey 303 ↓155 5.38 % ↓0.24
SNP GAIN from Liberal Democrat Majority: 138 Swing: ↑6.54%

Shetland Islands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Liberal Democrat Tavish Scott 🛋 3,377 ↓1085 61.77 % ↑14.26
SNP Danus Skene 1,299 ↑165 23.76 % ↑11.68
Labour Robina Barton 411 ↓209 7.51 % ↑0.91
Conservative Cameron Smith 380 ↑50 6.94 % ↑3.43
Liberal Democrat HOLD Majority: 2,078 Swing: ↑1.29%

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kate Forbes 16,883 ↑2146 55.83 % ↑9.65
Liberal Democrat Angela MacLean 7,373 ↓2369 24.38 % ↓6.14
Conservative Robbie Munro 3,260 ↑426 10.78 % ↑1.90
Labour Linda Stewart 2,725 ↓1387 9.01 % ↓3.87
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,510 Swing: ↑7.89%