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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Lothian region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Lothian: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 39.63 % 18.21 % 15.28 % 6.43 % 17.60 % 2.86 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 110,901 50,969 42,762 17,996 49,247 8,000 0
1st divisor 9 1 1 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 12,322 50,969 42,762 17,996 24,624 8,000 0
2nd divisor 9 2 1 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 12,322 25,485 42,762 17,996 24,624 8,000 0
3rd divisor 9 2 2 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,322 25,485 21,381 17,996 24,624 8,000 0
4th divisor 9 3 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,322 16,990 21,381 17,996 24,624 8,000 0
5th divisor 9 3 2 1 3 1 1
5th allocation 12,322 16,990 21,381 17,996 16,416 8,000 0
6th divisor 9 3 3 1 3 1 1
6th allocation 12,322 16,990 14,254 17,996 16,416 8,000 0
7th divisor 9 3 3 2 3 1 1
7th allocation 12,322 16,990 14,254 8,998 16,416 8,000 0
8th divisor 9 4 3 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 12,322 12,742 14,254 8,998 16,416 8,000 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Labour Neil Findlay
4 Green Andy Wightman
5 Conservative Miles Briggs
6 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Constituencies in Lothian region

Almond Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angela Constance 🛋 19,136 ↑2432 65.54 % ↑11.20
Labour Neil Findlay 📃 🎢 7,396 ↓3766 25.33 % ↓10.98
Conservative Stephanie Smith 2,170 ↑284 7.43 % ↑1.29
Liberal Democrat Charles Dundas 💸 497 ↓159 1.70 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,740 Swing: ↑11.09%

Edinburgh Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Green Alison Johnstone 📃 10,337 ↑5823 31.36 % ↑15.80
SNP Alison Dickie 9,038 ↑1149 27.42 % ↑0.23
Conservative Ruth Davidson 🎢 4,916 ↑643 14.92 % ↑0.19
Labour Sarah Boyack 📃 🎢 4,719 ↓2402 14.32 % ↓10.22
Liberal Democrat Hannah Bettsworth 3,949 ↓1268 11.98 % ↓6.00
Green GAIN from SNP Majority: 1,299 Swing: ↑7.79%

Edinburgh Eastern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ash Denham 16,671 ↑2119 57.91 % ↑10.55
Labour Kezia Dugdale 📃 🎢 8,163 ↓4156 28.35 % ↓11.74
Conservative Nick Cook 3,026 ↑396 10.51 % ↑1.95
Liberal Democrat Cos D'Inverno 💸 929 ↓298 3.23 % ↓0.76
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,508 Swing: ↑11.14%

Edinburgh Northern & Leith

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ben Macpherson 14,049 ↑1786 50.02 % ↑10.31
Labour Lesley Hinds 8,520 ↓4338 30.34 % ↓11.29
Conservative Iain McGill 3,369 ↑441 11.99 % ↑2.51
Liberal Democrat Martin Veart 2,146 ↓690 7.64 % ↓1.54
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,529 Swing: ↑10.80%

Edinburgh Pentlands

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gordon MacDonald 🛋 12,828 ↑1631 42.68 % ↑5.42
Conservative Gordon Lindhurst 10,859 ↑1420 36.13 % ↑4.72
Labour Blair Heary 5,296 ↓2697 17.62 % ↓8.98
Liberal Democrat Emma Farthing-Sykes 💸 1,075 ↓345 3.58 % ↓1.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 1,969 Swing: ↑0.35%

Edinburgh Southern

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jim Eadie 🛋 11,396 ↑1449 36.70 % ↑7.27
Conservative Miles Briggs 🎢 7,246 ↑948 23.33 % ↑4.69
Liberal Democrat Pramod Subbaraman 6,280 ↓2017 20.22 % ↓4.33
Labour Daniel Johnston 6,132 ↓3122 19.75 % ↓7.63
SNP HOLD Majority: 4,150 Swing: ↑1.29%

Edinburgh Western

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Toni Giugliano 13,707 ↑1742 43.82 % ↑8.05
Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton 🎢 7,021 ↓2255 22.44 % ↓5.29
Conservative Sandy Batho 5,806 ↑759 18.56 % ↑3.47
Labour Cat Headley 4,747 ↓2417 15.18 % ↓6.24
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,686 Swing: ↑6.67%

Linlithgow

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fiona Hyslop 🛋 19,507 ↑2480 61.17 % ↑11.36
Labour Angela Boyd Moohan 8,572 ↓4364 26.88 % ↓10.96
Conservative Charles Kennedy 3,044 ↑398 9.55 % ↑1.81
Liberal Democrat Dan Farthing-Sykes 💸 768 ↓247 2.41 % ↓0.56
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,935 Swing: ↑11.16%

Midlothian North & Musselburgh

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Colin Beattie 🛋 16,129 ↑2050 58.98 % ↑11.76
Labour Bernard Harkins 7,344 ↓3739 26.86 % ↓10.31
Conservative Jeremy Balfour 2,923 ↑382 10.69 % ↑2.17
Liberal Democrat Jacquie Bell 💸 949 ↓305 3.47 % ↓0.74
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,785 Swing: ↑11.04%