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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.94 % 17.59 % 17.79 % 6.57 % 9.42 % 4.69 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 116,636 46,691 47,216 17,436 24,993 12,461 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,664 46,691 47,216 17,436 24,993 12,461 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,664 46,691 23,608 17,436 24,993 12,461 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,664 23,346 23,608 17,436 24,993 12,461 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,664 23,346 23,608 17,436 12,497 12,461 0
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,664 23,346 15,739 17,436 12,497 12,461 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,664 15,564 15,739 17,436 12,497 12,461 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,664 15,564 15,739 8,718 12,497 12,461 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,664 15,564 11,804 8,718 12,497 12,461 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Green Mark Ruskell
4 Conservative Liz Smith
5 Labour Claire Baker
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Conservative Dean Lockhart

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 15,183 ↑1930 57.57 % ↑9.23
Labour Craig Miller 6,390 ↓3254 24.23 % ↓10.95
Conservative Alexander Stewart 4,028 ↑527 15.27 % ↑2.50
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 770 ↓248 2.92 % ↓0.79
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,793 Swing: ↑10.09%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 12,234 ↑1555 53.30 % ↑11.70
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 7,902 ↓4024 34.43 % ↓12.03
Conservative Dave Dempsey 2,062 ↑270 8.98 % ↑2.00
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 755 ↓242 3.29 % ↓0.59
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,332 Swing: ↑11.86%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 12,613 ↑1603 47.96 % ↑10.38
Labour Cara Hilton 6,904 ↓3516 26.26 % ↓9.30
Liberal Democrat James Calder 4,372 ↓1404 16.62 % ↓3.09
Conservative James Reekie 2,408 ↑315 9.16 % ↑2.02
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,709 Swing: ↑9.84%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 14,411 ↑1832 56.39 % ↑11.15
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 8,214 ↓4183 32.14 % ↓12.45
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,309 ↑302 9.04 % ↑1.82
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 621 ↓199 2.43 % ↓0.52
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,197 Swing: ↑11.80%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 15,765 ↑2004 64.31 % ↑12.01
Labour Kay Morrison 6,343 ↓3230 25.88 % ↓10.50
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 1,928 ↑252 7.87 % ↑1.50
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 477 ↓153 1.95 % ↓0.44
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,422 Swing: ↑11.25%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 12,635 ↑1606 45.32 % ↑8.16
Conservative Huw Bell 6,463 ↑845 23.18 % ↑4.25
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 🎢 6,386 ↓2051 22.91 % ↓5.52
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,394 ↓1219 8.59 % ↓3.58
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,172 Swing: ↑1.96%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 20,872 ↑2653 64.03 % ↑3.20
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 9,050 ↑1184 27.76 % ↑1.50
Labour Anna McEwan 1,771 ↓901 5.43 % ↓3.49
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 905 ↓291 2.78 % ↓1.21
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,822 Swing: ↑0.85%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 18,414 ↑2341 55.79 % ↑4.30
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 10,247 ↑1340 31.05 % ↑2.52
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,637 ↓1343 7.99 % ↓4.76
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 1,707 ↓549 5.17 % ↓2.06
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,167 Swing: ↑0.89%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 17,022 ↑2164 57.91 % ↑9.04
Labour Rebecca Bell 6,088 ↓3100 20.71 % ↓9.51
Conservative Dean Lockhart 🎢 5,304 ↑694 18.04 % ↑2.88
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 981 ↓315 3.34 % ↓0.92
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,934 Swing: ↑9.27%