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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 50.81 % 11.45 % 17.62 % 7.58 % 8.61 % 3.93 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 140,683 31,713 48,800 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,789 31,713 48,800 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,789 31,713 24,400 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,789 15,857 24,400 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,789 15,857 16,267 20,986 23,832 10,876 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 12,789 15,857 16,267 20,986 11,916 10,876 0
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,789 15,857 16,267 10,493 11,916 10,876 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,789 15,857 12,200 10,493 11,916 10,876 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,789 10,571 12,200 10,493 11,916 10,876 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 11,523 ↑1465 49.83 % ↑9.84
Labour Lewis Macdonald 6,256 ↓3185 27.05 % ↓10.49
Conservative Tom Mason 3,566 ↑466 15.42 % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 1,778 ↓571 7.69 % ↓1.65
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,267 Swing: ↑10.16%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 16,944 ↑2154 65.93 % ↑10.66
Labour Greg Williams 5,046 ↓2569 19.64 % ↓8.82
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,492 ↑326 9.70 % ↑1.61
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 💸 1,216 ↓390 4.73 % ↓1.27
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,898 Swing: ↑9.74%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 13,687 ↑1740 52.92 % ↑11.22
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 4,669 ↑611 18.05 % ↑3.89
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 3,780 ↓1214 14.61 % ↓2.82
Labour Alison Evison 3,727 ↓1897 14.41 % ↓5.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,018 Swing: ↑3.67%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 22,377 ↑2844 70.02 % ↑5.52
Conservative Colin Clark 4,845 ↑634 15.16 % ↑1.26
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 3,208 ↓1030 10.04 % ↓3.95
Labour Sarah Flavell 💸 1,527 ↓777 4.78 % ↓2.83
SNP HOLD Majority: 17,532 Swing: ↑2.13%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 13,961 ↑1775 48.88 % ↑6.33
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 6,934 ↑907 24.28 % ↑3.23
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 🎢 6,111 ↓1963 21.40 % ↓6.80
Labour Sarah Duncan 1,556 ↓793 5.45 % ↓2.75
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,027 Swing: ↑1.55%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 15,649 ↑1989 59.32 % ↑4.50
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 7,333 ↑959 27.80 % ↑2.22
Labour John Ruddy 2,094 ↓1066 7.94 % ↓4.74
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 💸 1,306 ↓420 4.95 % ↓1.98
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,316 Swing: ↑1.14%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 18,518 ↑2354 66.01 % ↑7.54
Conservative Kirstene Hair 6,421 ↑840 22.89 % ↑2.70
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,454 ↓1249 8.75 % ↓4.65
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 662 ↓212 2.36 % ↓0.80
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,097 Swing: ↑2.42%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 19,260 ↑2448 71.28 % ↑4.04
Conservative Peter Chapman 5,283 ↑691 19.55 % ↑1.18
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,751 ↓891 6.48 % ↓4.09
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 725 ↓233 2.68 % ↓1.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,977 Swing: ↑1.43%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 18,950 ↑2409 71.85 % ↑7.62
Labour Richard McCready 3,884 ↓1978 14.73 % ↓8.03
Conservative Bill Bowman 2,934 ↑384 11.12 % ↑1.22
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 605 ↓195 2.30 % ↓0.81
SNP HOLD Majority: 15,066 Swing: ↑7.82%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 16,141 ↑2052 67.51 % ↑9.91
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 5,092 ↓2592 21.30 % ↓10.11
Conservative Nicola Ross 1,869 ↑244 7.82 % ↑1.18
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 805 ↓258 3.37 % ↓0.98
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,049 Swing: ↑10.01%