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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 39.82 % 17.78 % 24.54 % 6.08 % 6.81 % 4.96 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 114,216 51,006 70,390 17,428 19,545 14,239 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 19,036 51,006 14,078 17,428 19,545 14,239 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 19,036 25,503 14,078 17,428 19,545 14,239 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 19,036 17,002 14,078 17,428 19,545 14,239 0
4th divisor 6 3 5 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 19,036 17,002 14,078 17,428 9,773 14,239 0
5th divisor 7 3 5 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 16,317 17,002 14,078 17,428 9,773 14,239 0
6th divisor 7 3 5 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 16,317 17,002 14,078 8,714 9,773 14,239 0
7th divisor 7 4 5 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 16,317 12,752 14,078 8,714 9,773 14,239 0
8th divisor 8 4 5 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 14,277 12,752 14,078 8,714 9,773 14,239 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
4 SNP Joan McAlpine
5 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
6 Labour Colin Smyth
7 SNP Emma Harper

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 14,953 ↑1956 43.64 % ↑4.70
SNP Jennifer Dunn 13,615 ↑1731 39.74 % ↑4.13
Labour Brian McGinley 5,155 ↓2624 15.04 % ↓8.27
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 540 ↓173 1.58 % ↓0.56
Conservative HOLD Majority: 1,338 Swing: ↑0.29%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 15,180 ↑1930 55.18 % ↑9.02
Labour Carol Mochan 7,069 ↓3600 25.70 % ↓11.47
Conservative Lee Lyons 4,786 ↑626 17.40 % ↑2.91
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 472 ↓152 1.72 % ↓0.45
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,111 Swing: ↑10.25%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 16,740 ↑2128 57.88 % ↑9.07
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 6,889 ↓3507 23.82 % ↓10.91
Conservative Alex Allison 4,570 ↑598 15.80 % ↑2.53
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 724 ↓233 2.50 % ↓0.70
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,851 Swing: ↑9.99%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 10,893 ↑1425 36.38 % ↑6.70
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 9,605 ↑1221 32.08 % ↑5.79
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 8,365 ↓4259 27.94 % ↓11.64
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,074 ↓345 3.59 % ↓0.86
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,288 Swing: ↑0.46%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 14,189 ↑1804 47.15 % ↑8.66
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 8,307 ↓4229 27.60 % ↓11.36
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 6,148 ↑804 20.43 % ↑3.82
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 💸 1,447 ↓465 4.81 % ↓1.13
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,882 Swing: ↑10.01%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 14,879 ↑1946 50.71 % ↑5.83
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,706 ↑1107 29.67 % ↑3.30
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 🎢 3,777 ↓1213 12.87 % ↓4.45
Labour Barrie Cunning 1,979 ↓1007 6.74 % ↓3.62
Conservative HOLD Majority: 6,173 Swing: ↑1.27%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 12,737 ↑1666 42.06 % ↑5.15
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 11,696 ↑1487 38.63 % ↑4.60
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 5,270 ↓2684 17.41 % ↓9.11
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 577 ↓186 1.91 % ↓0.63
Conservative HOLD Majority: 1,041 Swing: ↑0.28%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 19,434 ↑2470 62.74 % ↑9.49
Labour Dave Meechan 7,270 ↓3701 23.47 % ↓10.97
Conservative Brian Whittle 3,807 ↑498 12.29 % ↑1.90
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 465 ↓149 1.50 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,164 Swing: ↑10.23%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 15,873 ↑2018 52.11 % ↑8.60
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 6,760 ↓2171 22.19 % ↓5.86
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,306 ↑563 14.14 % ↑2.38
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,520 ↓1792 11.56 % ↓5.12
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,113 Swing: ↑7.23%