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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Unison, 7th April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Unison and published on 7th April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑6.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓10.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑2.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓1.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓0.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑3.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑5.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓5.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 43.53 % 24.82 % 17.31 % 3.92 % 7.15 % 3.26 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 117,251 66,854 46,617 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,725 66,854 23,309 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,725 33,427 23,309 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,725 22,285 23,309 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,725 22,285 15,539 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 11,725 16,714 15,539 10,561 19,268 8,781 0
6th divisor 10 4 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,725 16,714 15,539 10,561 9,634 8,781 0
7th divisor 10 5 3 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,725 13,371 15,539 10,561 9,634 8,781 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,725 13,371 11,654 10,561 9,634 8,781 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Green Ross Greer
6 Labour Ken Macintosh
7 Conservative Maurice Golden

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 14,066 ↑1788 53.60 % ↑10.32
Labour Gail Casey 7,663 ↓3901 29.20 % ↓11.56
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,173 ↑415 12.09 % ↑2.37
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,339 ↓430 5.10 % ↓1.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,403 Swing: ↑10.94%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 17,802 ↑2263 61.19 % ↑8.58
Labour Johanna Baxter 6,243 ↓3179 21.46 % ↓10.44
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 4,639 ↑607 15.94 % ↑2.29
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 411 ↓132 1.41 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,559 Swing: ↑9.51%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 12,594 ↑1601 60.29 % ↑10.45
Labour Joe Cullinane 5,728 ↓2917 27.42 % ↓11.78
Conservative William McClure 2,153 ↑282 10.30 % ↑1.82
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 414 ↓133 1.98 % ↓0.50
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,866 Swing: ↑11.11%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 12,514 ↑1591 49.28 % ↑10.96
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 8,324 ↓4238 32.78 % ↓11.28
Conservative Maurice Corry 3,906 ↑511 15.38 % ↑3.47
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 649 ↓209 2.56 % ↓0.45
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,190 Swing: ↑11.12%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 12,252 ↑1602 40.59 % ↑7.23
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 8,910 ↑1133 29.52 % ↑5.16
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 8,390 ↓4272 27.80 % ↓11.86
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 632 ↓203 2.09 % ↓0.53
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,342 Swing: ↑1.04%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 13,605 ↑1729 53.16 % ↑11.06
Labour Siobhan McCready 8,208 ↓4179 32.07 % ↓11.84
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,314 ↑303 9.04 % ↑1.91
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,464 ↓470 5.72 % ↓1.14
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,397 Swing: ↑11.45%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 12,502 ↑1589 53.24 % ↑10.59
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 7,067 ↓3598 30.09 % ↓11.59
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,564 ↑335 10.92 % ↑2.21
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,349 ↓434 5.75 % ↓1.22
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,435 Swing: ↑11.09%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 13,186 ↑1676 49.75 % ↑7.89
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 6,590 ↓3356 24.86 % ↓11.31
Conservative David Wilson 6,315 ↑826 23.82 % ↑3.86
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 416 ↓134 1.57 % ↓0.43
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,596 Swing: ↑9.60%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 11,864 ↑1508 48.78 % ↑10.29
Labour Paul O'Kane 8,570 ↓4363 35.24 % ↓12.82
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,356 ↑439 13.80 % ↑2.96
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 531 ↓171 2.18 % ↓0.43
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,294 Swing: ↑11.55%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 16,334 ↑2076 51.59 % ↑9.35
Labour Margaret McCarthy 8,254 ↓4202 26.07 % ↓10.83
Conservative Andrew Polson 5,106 ↑668 16.13 % ↑2.98
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 1,968 ↓632 6.22 % ↓1.48
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,080 Swing: ↑10.09%