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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 22nd April 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 22nd April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑7.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓13.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑6.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 67 ↓2 53 64 ↑11 16 3 ↓13
Labour 37 21 ↓16 15 ↓15 22 21 ↓1
Conservative 15 21 ↑6 3 5 ↑2 12 16 ↑4
Green 2 13 ↑11 2 ↑2 2 11 ↑9
Lib Dem 5 6 ↑1 2 2 3 4 ↑1
UKIP 1 ↑1 1 ↑1
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Orkney Islands Liberal Democrat 184 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Kelvin Green 562 GAIN over SNP
Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 1,536 HOLD over Conservative
Galloway & West Dumfries Conservative 1,612 HOLD over SNP
Dumfriesshire Conservative 1,783 GAIN over SNP
Ayr Conservative 2,011 HOLD over SNP
Edinburgh Central Green 2,159 GAIN over SNP
Shetland Islands Liberal Democrat 2,616 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Provan SNP 3,591 GAIN over Labour
Edinburgh Southern SNP 3,917 HOLD over Conservative

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Central Conservative Labour 172 857
North East Labour Conservative 463 1,850
South Conservative Labour 626 1,877
Glasgow Green Labour 1,015 5,076
Lothian Green Conservative 2,021 6,064
West Labour Conservative 1,843 7,372
Highlands and Islands Green SNP 1,043 8,343
Mid Scotland and Fife Conservative Labour 3,781 11,342