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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 22nd April 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 22nd April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑7.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓13.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑6.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 51.60 % 26.01 % 10.57 % 2.18 % 6.93 % 2.71 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 105,751 53,306 21,665 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,575 53,306 21,665 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,575 26,653 21,665 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,575 17,769 21,665 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,575 17,769 10,833 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,575 13,327 10,833 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,575 13,327 10,833 4,469 7,096 5,545 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,575 10,661 10,833 4,469 7,096 5,545 0
8th divisor 10 5 3 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 10,575 10,661 7,222 4,469 7,096 5,545 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Green Kirsten Robb
6 Labour Elaine Smith
7 Conservative Graham Simpson

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.63 % 24.79 % 9.75 % 3.76 % 16.47 % 2.59 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 81,182 47,211 18,575 7,155 31,372 4,931 0
1st divisor 9 1 1 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 9,020 47,211 18,575 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
2nd divisor 9 2 1 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 9,020 23,606 18,575 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
3rd divisor 9 3 1 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 9,020 15,737 18,575 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
4th divisor 9 3 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 9,020 15,737 9,288 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
5th divisor 9 4 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 9,020 11,803 9,288 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
6th divisor 9 4 2 1 3 1 1
6th allocation 9,020 11,803 9,288 7,155 10,457 4,931 0
7th divisor 9 5 2 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 9,020 9,442 9,288 7,155 10,457 4,931 0
8th divisor 9 5 2 1 4 1 1
8th allocation 9,020 9,442 9,288 7,155 7,843 4,931 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Conservative Adam Tomkins
4 Labour James Kelly
5 Green Zara Kitson
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Green Sean Templeton

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.16 % 8.49 % 15.40 % 14.85 % 11.60 % 7.51 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 6 2
Votes 83,109 16,733 30,368 29,266 22,863 14,805 0
1st divisor 7 1 1 3 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,873 16,733 30,368 9,755 22,863 14,805 0
2nd divisor 7 1 2 3 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,873 16,733 15,184 9,755 22,863 14,805 0
3rd divisor 7 1 2 3 2 1 1
3rd allocation 11,873 16,733 15,184 9,755 11,432 14,805 0
4th divisor 7 2 2 3 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,873 8,367 15,184 9,755 11,432 14,805 0
5th divisor 7 2 3 3 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,873 8,367 10,123 9,755 11,432 14,805 0
6th divisor 7 2 3 3 2 2 1
6th allocation 11,873 8,367 10,123 9,755 11,432 7,403 0
7th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 2 1
7th allocation 10,389 8,367 10,123 9,755 11,432 7,403 0
8th divisor 8 2 3 3 3 2 1
8th allocation 10,389 8,367 10,123 9,755 7,621 7,403 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Green John Finnie
3 Labour Rhoda Grant
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 UKIP David Coburn
6 SNP Maree Todd
7 Green Isla O’Reilly

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 37.99 % 15.99 % 16.86 % 7.36 % 18.99 % 2.80 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 108,380 45,604 48,108 20,995 54,172 8,000 0
1st divisor 9 1 1 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 12,042 45,604 48,108 20,995 27,086 8,000 0
2nd divisor 9 1 2 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 12,042 45,604 24,054 20,995 27,086 8,000 0
3rd divisor 9 2 2 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,042 22,802 24,054 20,995 27,086 8,000 0
4th divisor 9 2 2 1 3 1 1
4th allocation 12,042 22,802 24,054 20,995 18,057 8,000 0
5th divisor 9 2 3 1 3 1 1
5th allocation 12,042 22,802 16,036 20,995 18,057 8,000 0
6th divisor 9 3 3 1 3 1 1
6th allocation 12,042 15,201 16,036 20,995 18,057 8,000 0
7th divisor 9 3 3 2 3 1 1
7th allocation 12,042 15,201 16,036 10,498 18,057 8,000 0
8th divisor 9 3 3 2 4 1 1
8th allocation 12,042 15,201 16,036 10,498 13,543 8,000 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Ruth Davidson
2 Labour Kezia Dugdale
3 Green Andy Wightman
4 Conservative Miles Briggs
5 Labour Neil Findlay
6 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
7 Green Lorna Slater

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.35 % 15.52 % 19.73 % 7.56 % 10.21 % 4.63 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 113,985 41,776 53,118 20,342 27,493 12,461 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,399 41,776 53,118 20,342 27,493 12,461 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,399 41,776 26,559 20,342 27,493 12,461 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,399 20,888 26,559 20,342 27,493 12,461 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,399 20,888 26,559 20,342 13,747 12,461 0
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,399 20,888 17,706 20,342 13,747 12,461 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,399 13,925 17,706 20,342 13,747 12,461 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,399 13,925 17,706 10,171 13,747 12,461 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,399 13,925 13,280 10,171 13,747 12,461 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Green Mark Ruskell
4 Conservative Liz Smith
5 Labour Claire Baker
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Conservative Dean Lockhart

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 48.70 % 10.05 % 19.44 % 8.67 % 9.29 % 3.85 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 137,485 28,375 54,900 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,499 28,375 54,900 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,499 28,375 27,450 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,499 14,188 27,450 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,499 14,188 18,300 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 12,499 14,188 18,300 24,484 13,108 10,876 0
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,499 14,188 18,300 12,242 13,108 10,876 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,499 14,188 13,725 12,242 13,108 10,876 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,499 9,458 13,725 12,242 13,108 10,876 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 38.16 % 15.60 % 27.07 % 6.95 % 7.35 % 4.87 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 111,620 45,637 79,189 20,333 21,500 14,239 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 18,603 45,637 15,838 20,333 21,500 14,239 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 18,603 22,819 15,838 20,333 21,500 14,239 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 18,603 15,212 15,838 20,333 21,500 14,239 0
4th divisor 6 3 5 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 18,603 15,212 15,838 20,333 10,750 14,239 0
5th divisor 6 3 5 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 18,603 15,212 15,838 10,167 10,750 14,239 0
6th divisor 7 3 5 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 15,946 15,212 15,838 10,167 10,750 14,239 0
7th divisor 8 3 5 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,953 15,212 15,838 10,167 10,750 14,239 0
8th divisor 8 3 6 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,953 15,212 13,198 10,167 10,750 14,239 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
4 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
5 SNP Joan McAlpine
6 SNP Emma Harper
7 Conservative Rachael Hamilton

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.57 % 22.22 % 19.49 % 4.58 % 7.88 % 3.26 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 114,586 59,816 52,444 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,459 59,816 26,222 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,459 29,908 26,222 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,459 19,939 26,222 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,459 19,939 17,481 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,459 19,939 17,481 12,321 10,598 8,781 0
6th divisor 10 4 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,459 14,954 17,481 12,321 10,598 8,781 0
7th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,459 14,954 13,111 12,321 10,598 8,781 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,459 11,963 13,111 12,321 10,598 8,781 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Green Ross Greer
5 Labour Mary Fee
6 Conservative Maurice Golden
7 Labour Ken Macintosh