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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 22nd April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Central region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 22nd April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑7.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓13.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑6.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Central: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 51.60 % 26.01 % 10.57 % 2.18 % 6.93 % 2.71 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 105,751 53,306 21,665 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,575 53,306 21,665 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,575 26,653 21,665 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,575 17,769 21,665 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,575 17,769 10,833 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,575 13,327 10,833 4,469 14,192 5,545 0
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,575 13,327 10,833 4,469 7,096 5,545 0
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,575 10,661 10,833 4,469 7,096 5,545 0
8th divisor 10 5 3 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 10,575 10,661 7,222 4,469 7,096 5,545 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Green Kirsten Robb
6 Labour Elaine Smith
7 Conservative Graham Simpson

Constituencies in Central region

Airdrie & Shotts

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Alex Neil 🛋 13,993 ↑2009 64.08 % ↑13.93
Labour Richard Leonard 🎢 5,670 ↓4313 25.96 % ↓15.82
Conservative Eric Holford 1,706 ↑310 7.81 % ↑1.97
Liberal Democrat Louise Young 💸 469 ↓62 2.15 % ↓0.07
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,323 Swing: ↑14.88%

Coatbridge & Chryston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Fulton MacGregor 10,795 ↑1550 52.19 % ↑12.48
Labour Elaine Smith 🛋 🎢 6,775 ↓5153 32.75 % ↓18.49
Conservative Robyn Halbert 1,599 ↑291 7.73 % ↑2.11
Green John Wilson 📃 1,249 ↑753 6.04 % ↑3.91
Liberal Democrat Jenni Lang 💸 267 ↓35 1.29 % ↓0.01
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,020 Swing: ↑15.48%

Cumbernauld & Kilsyth

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jamie Hepburn 🛋 15,874 ↑2279 67.93 % ↑14.10
Labour Mark Griffin 📃 🎢 5,757 ↓4379 24.64 % ↓15.50
Conservative Anthony Newman 1,413 ↑257 6.05 % ↑1.47
Liberal Democrat Irene Lang 💸 324 ↓43 1.39 % ↓0.06
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,117 Swing: ↑14.80%

East Kilbride

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Linda Fabiani 🛋 16,766 ↑2407 62.12 % ↑14.11
Labour LizAnne Handibode 7,048 ↓5362 26.11 % ↓15.38
Conservative Graham Simpson 🎢 2,763 ↑503 10.24 % ↑2.68
Liberal Democrat Paul McGarry 💸 413 ↓55 1.53 % ↓0.03
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,718 Swing: ↑14.75%

Falkirk East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Angus MacDonald 🛋 16,700 ↑2398 63.36 % ↑12.59
Labour Craig Martin 6,115 ↓4652 23.20 % ↓15.02
Conservative Callum Laidlaw 2,899 ↑527 11.00 % ↑2.58
Liberal Democrat Austin Reid 💸 642 ↓85 2.44 % ↓0.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,585 Swing: ↑13.80%

Falkirk West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Michael Matheson 🛋 18,224 ↑2617 67.64 % ↑12.29
Labour Mandy Telford 5,601 ↓4261 20.79 % ↓14.18
Conservative Alison Harris 2,550 ↑464 9.46 % ↑2.06
Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 💸 569 ↓75 2.11 % ↓0.17
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,623 Swing: ↑13.23%

Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christina McKelvie 14,248 ↑2046 60.43 % ↑12.30
Labour Margaret McCulloch 📃 5,673 ↓4316 24.06 % ↓15.34
Conservative Margaret Mitchell 📃 🎢 3,113 ↑566 13.20 % ↑3.15
Liberal Democrat Eileen Baxendale 💸 544 ↓72 2.31 % ↓0.12
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,575 Swing: ↑13.82%

Motherwell & Wishaw

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Adamson 11,824 ↑1698 58.03 % ↑16.62
Labour John Pentland 🛋 6,085 ↓4628 29.86 % ↓13.95
Conservative Megan Gallacher 2,143 ↑390 10.52 % ↑3.35
Liberal Democrat Yvonne Finlayson 💸 324 ↓43 1.59 % ↑0.09
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,739 Swing: ↑15.29%

Uddingston & Bellshill

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Richard Lyle 📃 12,631 ↑1814 56.80 % ↑13.52
Labour Michael McMahon 🛋 6,549 ↓4982 29.45 % ↓16.68
Conservative Andrew Morrison 2,588 ↑471 11.64 % ↑3.17
Liberal Democrat Kaitey Blair 💸 468 ↓62 2.10 % ↓0.02
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,082 Swing: ↑15.10%