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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 22nd April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Glasgow region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 22nd April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑7.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓13.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑6.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Glasgow: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.63 % 24.79 % 9.75 % 3.76 % 16.47 % 2.59 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 8 1
Votes 81,182 47,211 18,575 7,155 31,372 4,931 0
1st divisor 9 1 1 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 9,020 47,211 18,575 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
2nd divisor 9 2 1 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 9,020 23,606 18,575 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
3rd divisor 9 3 1 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 9,020 15,737 18,575 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
4th divisor 9 3 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 9,020 15,737 9,288 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
5th divisor 9 4 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 9,020 11,803 9,288 7,155 15,686 4,931 0
6th divisor 9 4 2 1 3 1 1
6th allocation 9,020 11,803 9,288 7,155 10,457 4,931 0
7th divisor 9 5 2 1 3 1 1
7th allocation 9,020 9,442 9,288 7,155 10,457 4,931 0
8th divisor 9 5 2 1 4 1 1
8th allocation 9,020 9,442 9,288 7,155 7,843 4,931 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Conservative Adam Tomkins
4 Labour James Kelly
5 Green Zara Kitson
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Green Sean Templeton

Constituencies in Glasgow region

Glasgow Anniesland

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bill Kidd 🛋 12,061 ↑1732 56.72 % ↑13.53
Labour Bill Butler 5,862 ↓4460 27.57 % ↓15.59
Conservative Adam Tomkins 🎢 2,458 ↑447 11.56 % ↑3.15
Liberal Democrat James Spiers 💸 883 ↓117 4.15 % ↓0.03
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,199 Swing: ↑14.56%

Glasgow Cathcart

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP James Dornan 🛋 13,916 ↑1998 58.68 % ↑13.23
Labour Soryia Siddique 5,865 ↓4461 24.73 % ↓14.65
Conservative Kyle Thornton 2,946 ↑536 12.42 % ↑3.23
Liberal Democrat Margot Clark 💸 987 ↓131 4.16 % ↓0.10
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,051 Swing: ↑13.94%

Glasgow Kelvin

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Green Patrick Harvie 📃 11,162 ↑6731 38.05 % ↑19.70
SNP Sandra White 🛋 10,600 ↑1522 36.14 % ↓1.46
Labour Michael Shanks 4,359 ↓3316 14.86 % ↓16.93
Conservative Sheila Mechan 2,157 ↑392 7.36 % ↑0.05
Liberal Democrat Carole Ford 💸 1,054 ↓140 3.59 % ↓1.36
Green GAIN from SNP Majority: 562 Swing: ↑10.58%

Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bob Doris 📃 10,032 ↑1440 56.12 % ↑14.27
Labour Patricia Ferguson 🛋 5,614 ↓4270 31.40 % ↓16.74
Conservative John Anderson 1,494 ↑272 8.36 % ↑2.41
Liberal Democrat James Harrison 💸 736 ↓97 4.11 % ↑0.05
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,418 Swing: ↑15.50%

Glasgow Pollok

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Humza Yousaf 📃 11,971 ↑1719 59.36 % ↑14.62
Labour Johann Lamont 🛋 🎢 6,177 ↓4698 30.63 % ↓16.83
Conservative Thomas Haddow 1,587 ↑289 7.87 % ↑2.21
Liberal Democrat Isabel Nelson 💸 433 ↓57 2.15 % ↑0.01
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,794 Swing: ↑15.72%

Glasgow Provan

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ivan McKee 9,292 ↑1334 56.98 % ↑15.50
Labour Paul Martin 🛋 5,701 ↓4336 34.96 % ↓17.36
Conservative Annie Wells 950 ↑173 5.82 % ↑1.77
Liberal Democrat Thomas Coleman 💸 365 ↓48 2.24 % ↑0.09
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,591 Swing: ↑16.43%

Glasgow Shettleston

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Mason 🛋 11,826 ↑1698 62.26 % ↑14.50
Labour Thomas Rannachan 5,419 ↓4123 28.53 % ↓16.47
Conservative Thomas Kerr 1,422 ↑259 7.48 % ↑2.00
Liberal Democrat Giovanni Caccavello 💸 328 ↓43 1.72 % ↓0.03
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,407 Swing: ↑15.48%

Glasgow Southside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 🛋 14,369 ↑2063 66.69 % ↑12.26
Labour Fariha Thomas 4,519 ↓3438 20.97 % ↓14.23
Conservative Graham Hutchison 2,118 ↑385 9.83 % ↑2.16
Liberal Democrat Kevin Lewsey 💸 540 ↓72 2.51 % ↓0.20
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,850 Swing: ↑13.25%

Rutherglen

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Clare Haughey 12,506 ↑1796 53.91 % ↑14.39
Labour James Kelly 🛋 🎢 7,093 ↓5396 30.58 % ↓15.50
Conservative Taylor Muir 2,562 ↑466 11.04 % ↑3.31
Liberal Democrat Robert Brown 💸 1,037 ↓137 4.47 % ↑0.14
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,413 Swing: ↑14.95%