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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 22nd April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the Mid Scotland and Fife region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 22nd April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑7.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓13.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑6.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Mid Scotland and Fife: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.35 % 15.52 % 19.73 % 7.56 % 10.21 % 4.63 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9
Votes 113,985 41,776 53,118 20,342 27,493 12,461 0
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,399 41,776 53,118 20,342 27,493 12,461 0
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,399 41,776 26,559 20,342 27,493 12,461 0
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,399 20,888 26,559 20,342 27,493 12,461 0
4th divisor 10 2 2 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,399 20,888 26,559 20,342 13,747 12,461 0
5th divisor 10 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,399 20,888 17,706 20,342 13,747 12,461 0
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,399 13,925 17,706 20,342 13,747 12,461 0
7th divisor 10 3 3 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,399 13,925 17,706 10,171 13,747 12,461 0
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,399 13,925 13,280 10,171 13,747 12,461 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Green Mark Ruskell
4 Conservative Liz Smith
5 Labour Claire Baker
6 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie
7 Conservative Dean Lockhart

Constituencies in Mid Scotland and Fife region

Clackmannanshire & Dunblane

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Keith Brown 🛋 15,475 ↑2222 59.22 % ↑10.88
Labour Craig Miller 5,477 ↓4167 20.96 % ↓14.22
Conservative Alexander Stewart 4,279 ↑778 16.38 % ↑3.61
Liberal Democrat Christopher McKinlay 💸 899 ↓119 3.44 % ↓0.27
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,998 Swing: ↑12.55%

Cowdenbeath

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Annabelle Ewing 📃 12,469 ↑1790 55.89 % ↑14.29
Labour Alex Rowley 🎢 6,773 ↓5153 30.36 % ↓16.10
Conservative Dave Dempsey 2,190 ↑398 9.82 % ↑2.84
Liberal Democrat Bryn Jones 💸 880 ↓117 3.95 % ↑0.07
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,696 Swing: ↑15.20%

Dunfermline

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shirley-Anne Somerville 12,856 ↑1846 48.64 % ↑11.06
Labour Cara Hilton 5,918 ↓4502 22.39 % ↓13.17
Liberal Democrat James Calder 5,100 ↓676 19.30 % ↓0.41
Conservative James Reekie 2,558 ↑465 9.68 % ↑2.54
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,938 Swing: ↑12.12%

Kirkcaldy

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP David Torrance 🛋 14,688 ↑2109 58.97 % ↑13.73
Labour Claire Baker 🎢 7,041 ↓5356 28.27 % ↓16.32
Conservative Martin Laidlaw 2,453 ↑446 9.85 % ↑2.63
Liberal Democrat Lauren Jones 💸 724 ↓96 2.91 % ↓0.04
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,647 Swing: ↑15.03%

Mid Fife & Glenrothes

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jenny Gilruth 16,068 ↑2307 66.64 % ↑14.34
Labour Kay Morrison 5,437 ↓4136 22.55 % ↓13.83
Conservative Alex Stewart-Clark 2,049 ↑373 8.50 % ↑2.13
Liberal Democrat Jane-Ann Liston 💸 556 ↓74 2.31 % ↓0.08
SNP HOLD Majority: 10,631 Swing: ↑14.09%

North East Fife

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rod Campbell 12,878 ↑1849 44.03 % ↑6.87
Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie 📃 🎢 7,450 ↓987 25.47 % ↓2.96
Conservative Huw Bell 6,867 ↑1249 23.48 % ↑4.55
Labour Rosalind Garton 2,052 ↓1561 7.02 % ↓5.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 5,428 Swing: ↑4.92%

Perthshire North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP John Swinney 🛋 21,274 ↑3055 63.57 % ↑2.74
Conservative Murdo Fraser 📃 🎢 9,615 ↑1749 28.73 % ↑2.47
Labour Anna McEwan 💸 1,518 ↓1154 4.54 % ↓4.38
Liberal Democrat Peter Barrett 💸 1,056 ↓140 3.16 % ↓0.83
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,659 Swing: ↑0.14%

Perthshire South & Kinross-shire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Roseanna Cunningham 🛋 18,768 ↑2695 55.35 % ↑3.86
Conservative Liz Smith 🎢 10,888 ↑1981 32.11 % ↑3.58
Labour Scott Nicholson 2,260 ↓1720 6.67 % ↓6.08
Liberal Democrat Willie Robertson 1,992 ↓264 5.87 % ↓1.36
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,880 Swing: ↑0.14%

Stirling

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Bruce Crawford 🛋 17,349 ↑2491 59.12 % ↑10.25
Conservative Dean Lockhart 🎢 5,635 ↑1025 19.20 % ↑4.04
Labour Rebecca Bell 5,218 ↓3970 17.78 % ↓12.44
Liberal Democrat Elisabeth Wilson 💸 1,144 ↓152 3.90 % ↓0.36
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,714 Swing: ↑3.10%