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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 22nd April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the North East region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 22nd April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑7.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓13.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑6.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

North East: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 48.70 % 10.05 % 19.44 % 8.67 % 9.29 % 3.85 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 10
Votes 137,485 28,375 54,900 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 12,499 28,375 54,900 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 12,499 28,375 27,450 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 12,499 14,188 27,450 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 12,499 14,188 18,300 24,484 26,216 10,876 0
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 12,499 14,188 18,300 24,484 13,108 10,876 0
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 12,499 14,188 18,300 12,242 13,108 10,876 0
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 12,499 14,188 13,725 12,242 13,108 10,876 0
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 12,499 9,458 13,725 12,242 13,108 10,876 0
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

Constituencies in North East region

Aberdeen Central

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kevin Stewart 🛋 11,744 ↑1686 51.13 % ↑11.14
Labour Lewis Macdonald 5,362 ↓4079 23.34 % ↓14.20
Conservative Tom Mason 3,789 ↑689 16.50 % ↑4.17
Liberal Democrat Liam Bruce 2,074 ↓275 9.03 % ↓0.31
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,382 Swing: ↑12.67%

Aberdeen Donside

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mark McDonald 📃 17,270 ↑2480 67.30 % ↑12.03
Labour Greg Williams 4,325 ↓3290 16.85 % ↓11.61
Conservative Liam Kerr 2,648 ↑482 10.32 % ↑2.23
Liberal Democrat Isobel Davidson 1,418 ↓188 5.53 % ↓0.47
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,945 Swing: ↑11.82%

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Maureen Watt 🛋 13,950 ↑2003 52.61 % ↑10.91
Conservative Ross Thomson 🎢 4,960 ↑902 18.71 % ↑4.55
Liberal Democrat John Waddell 4,410 ↓584 16.63 % ↓0.80
Labour Alison Evison 3,194 ↓2430 12.05 % ↓7.58
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,990 Swing: ↑3.18%

Aberdeenshire East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gillian Martin 22,808 ↑3275 69.10 % ↑4.60
Conservative Colin Clark 5,147 ↑936 15.60 % ↑1.70
Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine 3,742 ↓496 11.34 % ↓2.65
Labour Sarah Flavell 💸 1,309 ↓995 3.96 % ↓3.65
SNP HOLD Majority: 17,661 Swing: ↑1.45%

Aberdeenshire West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Dennis Robertson 🛋 14,229 ↑2043 47.34 % ↑4.79
Conservative Alexander Burnett 🎢 7,367 ↑1340 24.51 % ↑3.46
Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles 🎢 7,129 ↓945 23.72 % ↓4.48
Labour Sarah Duncan 💸 1,334 ↓1015 4.44 % ↓3.76
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,862 Swing: ↑0.67%

Angus North & Mearns

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Mari Evans 15,950 ↑2290 58.94 % ↑4.12
Conservative Alex Johnstone 📃 🎢 7,791 ↑1417 28.79 % ↑3.21
Labour John Ruddy 1,795 ↓1365 6.63 % ↓6.05
Liberal Democrat Euan Davidson 1,524 ↓202 5.63 % ↓1.30
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,159 Swing: ↑0.46%

Angus South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Graeme Dey 🛋 18,874 ↑2710 66.06 % ↑7.59
Conservative Kirstene Hair 6,822 ↑1241 23.88 % ↑3.69
Labour Joanne McFadden 2,103 ↓1600 7.36 % ↓6.04
Liberal Democrat Clive Sneddon 💸 772 ↓102 2.70 % ↓0.46
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,052 Swing: ↑1.95%

Banffshire & Buchan Coast

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stewart Stevenson 🛋 19,631 ↑2819 71.15 % ↑3.91
Conservative Peter Chapman 5,613 ↑1021 20.34 % ↑1.97
Labour Nathan Morrison 1,501 ↓1141 5.44 % ↓5.13
Liberal Democrat David Evans 💸 846 ↓112 3.07 % ↓0.76
SNP HOLD Majority: 14,018 Swing: ↑0.97%

Dundee City East

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Shona Robison 🛋 19,314 ↑2773 72.98 % ↑8.75
Labour Richard McCready 3,329 ↓2533 12.58 % ↓10.18
Conservative Bill Bowman 3,117 ↑567 11.78 % ↑1.88
Liberal Democrat Craig Duncan 💸 706 ↓94 2.67 % ↓0.44
SNP HOLD Majority: 15,985 Swing: ↑9.46%

Dundee City West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Joe Fitzpatrick 🛋 16,451 ↑2362 69.30 % ↑11.70
Labour Jenny Marra 📃 🎢 4,364 ↓3320 18.38 % ↓13.03
Conservative Nicola Ross 1,986 ↑361 8.37 % ↑1.73
Liberal Democrat Daniel Coleman 💸 939 ↓124 3.95 % ↓0.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,087 Swing: ↑12.36%