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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 22nd April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the South region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 22nd April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑7.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓13.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑6.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

South: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 38.16 % 15.60 % 27.07 % 6.95 % 7.35 % 4.87 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 5 4
Votes 111,620 45,637 79,189 20,333 21,500 14,239 0
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 18,603 45,637 15,838 20,333 21,500 14,239 0
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 18,603 22,819 15,838 20,333 21,500 14,239 0
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 18,603 15,212 15,838 20,333 21,500 14,239 0
4th divisor 6 3 5 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 18,603 15,212 15,838 20,333 10,750 14,239 0
5th divisor 6 3 5 2 2 1 1
5th allocation 18,603 15,212 15,838 10,167 10,750 14,239 0
6th divisor 7 3 5 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 15,946 15,212 15,838 10,167 10,750 14,239 0
7th divisor 8 3 5 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 13,953 15,212 15,838 10,167 10,750 14,239 0
8th divisor 8 3 6 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 13,953 15,212 13,198 10,167 10,750 14,239 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
4 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
5 SNP Joan McAlpine
6 SNP Emma Harper
7 Conservative Rachael Hamilton

Constituencies in South region

Ayr

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Scott 🛋 15,887 ↑2890 45.64 % ↑6.70
SNP Jennifer Dunn 13,876 ↑1992 39.86 % ↑4.25
Labour Brian McGinley 4,418 ↓3361 12.69 % ↓10.62
Liberal Democrat Robbie Simpson 💸 630 ↓83 1.81 % ↓0.33
Conservative HOLD Majority: 2,011 Swing: ↑1.23%

Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Jeane Freeman 15,471 ↑2221 56.95 % ↑10.79
Labour Carol Mochan 6,060 ↓4609 22.30 % ↓14.87
Conservative Lee Lyons 5,085 ↑925 18.72 % ↑4.23
Liberal Democrat Dawud Islam 💸 551 ↓73 2.03 % ↓0.14
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,411 Swing: ↑12.83%

Clydesdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Aileen Campbell 🛋 17,062 ↑2450 59.52 % ↑10.71
Labour Claudia Beamish 📃 🎢 5,904 ↓4492 20.60 % ↓14.13
Conservative Alex Allison 4,855 ↑883 16.94 % ↑3.67
Liberal Democrat Fraser Grieve 💸 845 ↓112 2.95 % ↓0.25
SNP HOLD Majority: 11,158 Swing: ↑12.42%

Dumfriesshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Oliver Mundell 11,573 ↑2105 38.85 % ↑9.17
SNP Joan McAlpine 📃 🎢 9,790 ↑1406 32.87 % ↑6.58
Labour Elaine Murray 🛋 7,170 ↓5454 24.07 % ↓15.51
Liberal Democrat Richard Brodie 💸 1,253 ↓166 4.21 % ↓0.24
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 1,783 Swing: ↑1.29%

East Lothian

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP DJ Johnston-Smith 14,461 ↑2076 48.53 % ↑10.04
Labour Iain Gray 🛋 🎢 7,120 ↓5416 23.89 % ↓15.07
Conservative Rachael Hamilton 🎢 6,532 ↑1188 21.92 % ↑5.31
Liberal Democrat Ettie Spencer 1,688 ↓224 5.67 % ↓0.27
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 7,341 Swing: ↑12.55%

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative John Lamont 🛋 15,809 ↑2876 51.35 % ↑6.47
SNP Paul Wheelhouse 📃 8,873 ↑1274 28.82 % ↑2.45
Liberal Democrat Jim Hume 📃 🎢 4,406 ↓584 14.31 % ↓3.01
Labour Barrie Cunning 1,696 ↓1290 5.51 % ↓4.85
Conservative HOLD Majority: 6,936 Swing: ↑2.01%

Galloway & West Dumfries

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Finlay Carson 13,533 ↑2462 44.16 % ↑7.25
SNP Aileen McLeod 📃 11,921 ↑1712 38.90 % ↑4.87
Labour Fiona O'Donnell 4,518 ↓3436 14.74 % ↓11.78
Liberal Democrat Andrew Metcalf 💸 674 ↓89 2.20 % ↓0.34
Conservative HOLD Majority: 1,612 Swing: ↑1.19%

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Willie Coffey 🛋 19,808 ↑2844 64.68 % ↑11.43
Labour Dave Meechan 6,231 ↓4740 20.35 % ↓14.09
Conservative Brian Whittle 4,045 ↑736 13.21 % ↑2.82
Liberal Democrat Rebecca Plenderleith 💸 542 ↓72 1.77 % ↓0.16
SNP HOLD Majority: 13,577 Swing: ↑12.76%

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Christine Grahame 🛋 16,178 ↑2323 51.11 % ↑7.60
Liberal Democrat Kris Chapman 7,886 ↓1045 24.91 % ↓3.14
Conservative Michelle Ballantyne 4,575 ↑832 14.45 % ↑2.69
Labour Fiona Dugdale 3,017 ↓2295 9.53 % ↓7.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 8,292 Swing: ↑5.37%