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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

Survation/Daily Record, 22nd April 2016

These are our forecasts for all MSPs in the West region at the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by Survation and published in the Daily Record on 22nd April.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑7.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓13.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑3.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓1.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓9.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑5.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑1.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑6.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↓0.42
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

West: full results

SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 42.57 % 22.22 % 19.49 % 4.58 % 7.88 % 3.26 % 0.00 %
Constituency seats 9 1
Votes 114,586 59,816 52,444 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,459 59,816 26,222 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,459 29,908 26,222 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,459 19,939 26,222 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,459 19,939 17,481 12,321 21,195 8,781 0
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,459 19,939 17,481 12,321 10,598 8,781 0
6th divisor 10 4 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,459 14,954 17,481 12,321 10,598 8,781 0
7th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,459 14,954 13,111 12,321 10,598 8,781 0
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,459 11,963 13,111 12,321 10,598 8,781 0
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Green Ross Greer
5 Labour Mary Fee
6 Conservative Maurice Golden
7 Labour Ken Macintosh

Constituencies in West region

Clydebank & Milngavie

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gil Paterson 🛋 14,336 ↑2058 55.49 % ↑12.21
Labour Gail Casey 6,568 ↓4996 25.42 % ↓15.34
Conservative Maurice Golden 🎢 3,371 ↑613 13.05 % ↑3.33
Liberal Democrat Frank Bowles 1,562 ↓207 6.05 % ↓0.19
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,768 Swing: ↑13.78%

Cunninghame North

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Kenneth Gibson 🛋 18,144 ↑2605 62.78 % ↑10.17
Labour Johanna Baxter 5,351 ↓4071 18.51 % ↓13.39
Conservative Jamie Greene 🎢 4,929 ↑897 17.05 % ↑3.40
Liberal Democrat Charity Pierce 💸 479 ↓64 1.66 % ↓0.18
SNP HOLD Majority: 12,793 Swing: ↑11.78%

Cunninghame South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Ruth Maguire 12,836 ↑1843 62.57 % ↑12.73
Labour Joe Cullinane 4,910 ↓3735 23.93 % ↓15.27
Conservative William McClure 2,287 ↑416 11.15 % ↑2.67
Liberal Democrat Ruby Kirkwood 💸 483 ↓64 2.35 % ↓0.13
SNP HOLD Majority: 7,926 Swing: ↑14.00%

Dumbarton

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Gail Robertson 12,754 ↑1831 51.43 % ↑13.11
Labour Jackie Baillie 🛋 🎢 7,135 ↓5427 28.77 % ↓15.29
Conservative Maurice Corry 4,150 ↑755 16.74 % ↑4.83
Liberal Democrat Aileen Morton 💸 758 ↓100 3.06 % ↑0.05
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 5,619 Swing: ↑14.20%

Eastwood

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
Conservative Jackson Carlaw 📃 13,018 ↑2368 43.35 % ↑9.99
SNP Stewart Maxwell 📃 9,081 ↑1304 30.24 % ↑5.88
Labour Ken Macintosh 🛋 🎢 7,191 ↓5471 23.95 % ↓15.71
Liberal Democrat John Duncan 💸 737 ↓98 2.46 % ↓0.16
Conservative GAIN from Labour Majority: 3,937 Swing: ↑2.06%

Greenock & Inverclyde

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Stuart McMillan 📃 13,867 ↑1991 55.32 % ↑13.22
Labour Siobhan McCready 7,035 ↓5352 28.06 % ↓15.85
Conservative Graeme Brooks 2,458 ↑447 9.81 % ↑2.68
Liberal Democrat John Watson 1,708 ↓226 6.81 % ↓0.05
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 6,832 Swing: ↑14.54%

Paisley

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP George Adam 🛋 12,743 ↑1830 55.17 % ↑12.52
Labour Neil Bibby 📃 🎢 6,057 ↓4608 26.22 % ↓15.46
Conservative Paul Masterton 2,725 ↑496 11.80 % ↑3.09
Liberal Democrat Eileen McCartin 1,574 ↓209 6.82 % ↓0.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,686 Swing: ↑13.99%

Renfrewshire North & West

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Derek Mackay 13,440 ↑1930 51.13 % ↑9.27
Conservative David Wilson 6,710 ↑1221 25.53 % ↑5.57
Labour Mary Fee 📃 🎢 5,649 ↓4297 21.49 % ↓14.68
Liberal Democrat Rod Ackland 💸 486 ↓64 1.85 % ↓0.15
SNP HOLD Majority: 6,730 Swing: ↑1.85%

Renfrewshire South

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Tom Arthur 12,092 ↑1736 51.19 % ↑12.70
Labour Paul O'Kane 7,345 ↓5588 31.09 % ↓16.97
Conservative Ann Leblond 3,566 ↑649 15.09 % ↑4.25
Liberal Democrat Tristan Gray 💸 620 ↓82 2.62 % ↑0.01
SNP GAIN from Labour Majority: 4,747 Swing: ↑14.83%

Strathkelvin & Bearsden

Party Candidate Votes Change Share Change
SNP Rona Mackay 16,648 ↑2390 52.95 % ↑10.71
Labour Margaret McCarthy 7,074 ↓5382 22.50 % ↓14.40
Conservative Andrew Polson 5,425 ↑987 17.25 % ↑4.10
Liberal Democrat Katy Gordon 2,296 ↓304 7.30 % ↓0.40
SNP HOLD Majority: 9,574 Swing: ↑12.55%