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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our MSP forecasts for the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Seats Total Constituencies Regional seats
2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change 2011 Forecast Change
SNP 69 66 ↓3 53 64 ↑11 16 2 ↓14
Labour 37 24 ↓13 15 ↓15 22 24 ↑2
Conservative 15 23 ↑8 3 6 ↑3 12 17 ↑5
Green 2 9 ↑7 1 ↑1 2 8 ↑6
Lib Dem 5 6 ↑1 2 2 3 4 ↑1
UKIP 1 ↑1 1 ↑1
Independent 1 ↓1 1 ↓1
Regions Constituencies
Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Most marginal constituencies

Constituency Winner Margin Outcome
Orkney Islands Liberal Democrat 409 HOLD over SNP
Glasgow Kelvin SNP 468 HOLD over Green
Edinburgh Central Green 960 GAIN over SNP
Edinburgh Pentlands Conservative 1,054 GAIN over SNP
Glasgow Provan SNP 1,449 GAIN over Labour
Coatbridge & Chryston SNP 1,497 GAIN over Labour
Edinburgh Southern SNP 1,915 HOLD over Conservative
Renfrewshire South SNP 1,973 GAIN over Labour
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn SNP 2,225 GAIN over Labour
Rutherglen SNP 2,656 GAIN over Labour

Narrowest regional wins

Region 7th place Next party Allocation shortfall Equivalent votes
Central Labour Green 303 304
North East Labour Conservative 607 2,426
Mid Scotland and Fife Lib Dem Labour 1,872 5,618
Lothian Labour Green 2,216 6,648
West Labour Conservative 2,146 8,583
Highlands and Islands Conservative SNP 1,341 10,735
Glasgow Green Labour 2,281 11,404
South Labour SNP 1,798 12,586