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Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster

YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016

These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.

There’s more information about how we make this work here.

Constituencies

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 45.39 %  % ↑2.61
Labour 31.69 %  % ↓9.69
Conservative 13.91 %  % ↑5.09
Liberal Democrat 7.93 %  % ↓0.93
Others 1.08 %  % ↑2.92

Regions

Party 2011 % Prediction % Change
SNP 44.02 %  % ↓3.02
Labour 26.30 %  % ↓7.3
Conservative 12.35 %  % ↑7.65
Liberal Democrat 5.20 %  % ↑0.8
Green 4.37 %  % ↑4.63
UKIP 0.91 %  % ↑3.09
RISE 0.42 %  % ↑0.58
Others 6.43 %  % ↓6.43

Our forecast

Regions

Central C                  
R              
Glasgow C                  
R              
Highlands and Islands C                
R              
Lothian C                  
R              
Mid Scotland and Fife C                  
R              
North East C                    
R              
South C                  
R              
West C                    
R              

Central

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 48.61 % 28.72 % 11.60 % 1.85 % 5.60 % 2.67 % 0.95 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 100,832 59,577 24,072 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,083 59,577 24,072 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,083 29,789 24,072 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,083 19,859 24,072 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
4th divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,083 19,859 12,036 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
5th divisor 10 4 2 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,083 14,894 12,036 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
6th divisor 10 5 2 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 10,083 11,915 12,036 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
7th divisor 10 5 3 1 1 1 1
7th allocation 10,083 11,915 8,024 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
8th divisor 10 6 3 1 1 1 1
8th allocation 10,083 9,930 8,024 3,831 11,612 5,545 1,974
Party Candidate
1 Labour Richard Leonard
2 Labour Monica Lennon
3 Conservative Margaret Mitchell
4 Labour Mark Griffin
5 Labour Elaine Smith
6 Conservative Graham Simpson
7 Labour Craig Martin

Glasgow

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.56 % 27.65 % 10.82 % 3.21 % 13.45 % 2.58 % 1.72 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 77,406 52,766 20,639 6,133 25,668 4,931 3,278
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 7,741 52,766 20,639 6,133 25,668 4,931 3,278
2nd divisor 10 2 1 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 7,741 26,383 20,639 6,133 25,668 4,931 3,278
3rd divisor 10 3 1 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 7,741 17,589 20,639 6,133 25,668 4,931 3,278
4th divisor 10 3 1 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 7,741 17,589 20,639 6,133 12,834 4,931 3,278
5th divisor 10 3 2 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 7,741 17,589 10,320 6,133 12,834 4,931 3,278
6th divisor 10 4 2 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 7,741 13,192 10,320 6,133 12,834 4,931 3,278
7th divisor 10 5 2 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 7,741 10,553 10,320 6,133 12,834 4,931 3,278
8th divisor 10 5 2 1 3 1 1
8th allocation 7,741 10,553 10,320 6,133 8,556 4,931 3,278
Party Candidate
1 Labour Anas Sarwar
2 Labour Johann Lamont
3 Green Patrick Harvie
4 Conservative Adam Tomkins
5 Labour James Kelly
6 Labour Pauline McNeill
7 Green Zara Kitson

Highlands and Islands

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 41.38 % 9.77 % 17.62 % 13.10 % 9.77 % 7.73 % 0.64 %
Constituency seats 6 — — 2 — — —
Votes 79,244 18,701 33,742 25,086 18,706 14,805 1,225
1st divisor 7 1 1 3 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,321 18,701 33,742 8,362 18,706 14,805 1,225
2nd divisor 7 1 2 3 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,321 18,701 16,871 8,362 18,706 14,805 1,225
3rd divisor 7 1 2 3 2 1 1
3rd allocation 11,321 18,701 16,871 8,362 9,353 14,805 1,225
4th divisor 7 2 2 3 2 1 1
4th allocation 11,321 9,351 16,871 8,362 9,353 14,805 1,225
5th divisor 7 2 3 3 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,321 9,351 11,247 8,362 9,353 14,805 1,225
6th divisor 7 2 3 3 2 2 1
6th allocation 11,321 9,351 11,247 8,362 9,353 7,403 1,225
7th divisor 8 2 3 3 2 2 1
7th allocation 9,906 9,351 11,247 8,362 9,353 7,403 1,225
8th divisor 8 2 4 3 2 2 1
8th allocation 9,906 9,351 8,436 8,362 9,353 7,403 1,225
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Douglas Ross
2 Green John Finnie
3 Labour Rhoda Grant
4 Conservative Edward Mountain
5 UKIP David Coburn
6 SNP Maree Todd
7 Conservative Donald Cameron

Lothian

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 36.79 % 18.14 % 19.03 % 6.41 % 15.78 % 2.85 % 1.01 %
Constituency seats 7 — 1 — 1 — —
Votes 103,339 50,969 53,453 17,996 44,322 8,000 2,847
1st divisor 8 1 2 1 2 1 1
1st allocation 12,917 50,969 26,727 17,996 22,161 8,000 2,847
2nd divisor 8 2 2 1 2 1 1
2nd allocation 12,917 25,485 26,727 17,996 22,161 8,000 2,847
3rd divisor 8 2 3 1 2 1 1
3rd allocation 12,917 25,485 17,818 17,996 22,161 8,000 2,847
4th divisor 8 3 3 1 2 1 1
4th allocation 12,917 16,990 17,818 17,996 22,161 8,000 2,847
5th divisor 8 3 3 1 3 1 1
5th allocation 12,917 16,990 17,818 17,996 14,774 8,000 2,847
6th divisor 8 3 3 2 3 1 1
6th allocation 12,917 16,990 17,818 8,998 14,774 8,000 2,847
7th divisor 8 3 4 2 3 1 1
7th allocation 12,917 16,990 13,363 8,998 14,774 8,000 2,847
8th divisor 8 4 4 2 3 1 1
8th allocation 12,917 12,742 13,363 8,998 14,774 8,000 2,847
Party Candidate
1 Labour Kezia Dugdale
2 Conservative Ruth Davidson
3 Labour Neil Findlay
4 Green Andy Wightman
5 Liberal Democrat Alex Cole-Hamilton
6 Conservative Miles Briggs
7 Labour Sarah Boyack

Mid Scotland and Fife

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 40.43 % 17.37 % 21.96 % 6.49 % 8.37 % 4.64 % 0.75 %
Constituency seats 9 — — — — — —
Votes 108,683 46,691 59,020 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
1st divisor 10 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,868 46,691 59,020 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
2nd divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,868 46,691 29,510 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
3rd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,868 23,346 29,510 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
4th divisor 10 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,868 23,346 19,673 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
5th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,868 15,564 19,673 17,436 22,494 12,461 2,007
6th divisor 10 3 3 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 10,868 15,564 19,673 17,436 11,247 12,461 2,007
7th divisor 10 3 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,868 15,564 14,755 17,436 11,247 12,461 2,007
8th divisor 10 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 10,868 15,564 14,755 8,718 11,247 12,461 2,007
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Murdo Fraser
2 Labour Alex Rowley
3 Conservative Liz Smith
4 Labour Claire Baker
5 Green Mark Ruskell
6 Conservative Dean Lockhart
7 Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie

North East

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 46.85 % 11.33 % 21.80 % 7.50 % 7.67 % 3.89 % 0.96 %
Constituency seats 10 — — — — — —
Votes 131,091 31,713 61,000 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
1st divisor 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 11,917 31,713 61,000 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
2nd divisor 11 1 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 11,917 31,713 30,500 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
3rd divisor 11 2 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 11,917 15,857 30,500 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
4th divisor 11 2 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 11,917 15,857 20,333 20,986 21,449 10,876 2,684
5th divisor 11 2 3 1 2 1 1
5th allocation 11,917 15,857 20,333 20,986 10,725 10,876 2,684
6th divisor 11 2 3 2 2 1 1
6th allocation 11,917 15,857 20,333 10,493 10,725 10,876 2,684
7th divisor 11 2 4 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 11,917 15,857 15,250 10,493 10,725 10,876 2,684
8th divisor 11 3 4 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 11,917 10,571 15,250 10,493 10,725 10,876 2,684
Party Candidate
1 Conservative Alex Johnstone
2 Labour Jenny Marra
3 Conservative Alexander Burnett
4 Green Maggie Chapman
5 Liberal Democrat Mike Rumbles
6 Conservative Ross Thomson
7 Labour Lewis MacDonald

South

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 35.91 % 17.21 % 29.69 % 5.88 % 5.94 % 4.80 % 0.57 %
Constituency seats 5 — 4 — — — —
Votes 106,429 51,006 87,988 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
1st divisor 6 1 5 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 17,738 51,006 17,598 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
2nd divisor 6 2 5 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 17,738 25,503 17,598 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
3rd divisor 6 3 5 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 17,738 17,002 17,598 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
4th divisor 7 3 5 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 15,204 17,002 17,598 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
5th divisor 7 3 6 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 15,204 17,002 14,665 17,428 17,591 14,239 1,678
6th divisor 7 3 6 1 2 1 1
6th allocation 15,204 17,002 14,665 17,428 8,796 14,239 1,678
7th divisor 7 3 6 2 2 1 1
7th allocation 15,204 17,002 14,665 8,714 8,796 14,239 1,678
8th divisor 7 4 6 2 2 1 1
8th allocation 15,204 12,752 14,665 8,714 8,796 14,239 1,678
Party Candidate
1 Labour Iain Gray
2 Labour Claudia Beamish
3 SNP Joan McAlpine
4 Conservative Rachael Hamilton
5 Green Sarah Beattie-Smith
6 Liberal Democrat Jim Hume
7 Labour Colin Smyth

West

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SNP Labour Conservative Lib Dem Green UKIP RISE
Vote share 39.69 % 24.29 % 21.17 % 3.84 % 6.30 % 3.19 % 1.53 %
Constituency seats 9 — 1 — — — —
Votes 109,256 66,854 58,271 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
1st divisor 10 1 2 1 1 1 1
1st allocation 10,926 66,854 29,136 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
2nd divisor 10 2 2 1 1 1 1
2nd allocation 10,926 33,427 29,136 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
3rd divisor 10 3 2 1 1 1 1
3rd allocation 10,926 22,285 29,136 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
4th divisor 10 3 3 1 1 1 1
4th allocation 10,926 22,285 19,424 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
5th divisor 10 4 3 1 1 1 1
5th allocation 10,926 16,714 19,424 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
6th divisor 10 4 4 1 1 1 1
6th allocation 10,926 16,714 14,568 10,561 17,341 8,781 4,217
7th divisor 10 4 4 1 2 1 1
7th allocation 10,926 16,714 14,568 10,561 8,671 8,781 4,217
8th divisor 10 5 4 1 2 1 1
8th allocation 10,926 13,371 14,568 10,561 8,671 8,781 4,217
Party Candidate
1 Labour Jackie Baillie
2 Labour Neil Bibby
3 Conservative Jamie Greene
4 Labour Mary Fee
5 Conservative Maurice Golden
6 Green Ross Greer
7 Labour Ken Macintosh