Cutbot Scottish Parliament Seat Forecaster
YouGov/Times, 5th May 2016
These are our forecasts for regional MSPs in the 2016 Holyrood election, based on the poll conducted by YouGov and published in the Times on 5th May.
There’s more information about how we make this work here.
Our forecast
Regions
Central | C | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R | |||||||||||
Glasgow | C | ||||||||||
R | |||||||||||
Highlands and Islands | C | ||||||||||
R | |||||||||||
Lothian | C | ||||||||||
R | |||||||||||
Mid Scotland and Fife | C | ||||||||||
R | |||||||||||
North East | C | ||||||||||
R | |||||||||||
South | C | ||||||||||
R | |||||||||||
West | C | ||||||||||
R |
Central
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 48.61 % | 28.72 % | 11.60 % | 1.85 % | 5.60 % | 2.67 % | 0.95 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 100,832 | 59,577 | 24,072 | 3,831 | 11,612 | 5,545 | 1,974 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 10,083 | 59,577 | 24,072 | 3,831 | 11,612 | 5,545 | 1,974 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 10,083 | 29,789 | 24,072 | 3,831 | 11,612 | 5,545 | 1,974 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 10,083 | 19,859 | 24,072 | 3,831 | 11,612 | 5,545 | 1,974 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 10,083 | 19,859 | 12,036 | 3,831 | 11,612 | 5,545 | 1,974 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 10,083 | 14,894 | 12,036 | 3,831 | 11,612 | 5,545 | 1,974 |
6th divisor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 10,083 | 11,915 | 12,036 | 3,831 | 11,612 | 5,545 | 1,974 |
7th divisor | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 10,083 | 11,915 | 8,024 | 3,831 | 11,612 | 5,545 | 1,974 |
8th divisor | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 10,083 | 9,930 | 8,024 | 3,831 | 11,612 | 5,545 | 1,974 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Richard Leonard |
2 | Labour | Monica Lennon |
3 | Conservative | Margaret Mitchell |
4 | Labour | Mark Griffin |
5 | Labour | Elaine Smith |
6 | Conservative | Graham Simpson |
7 | Labour | Craig Martin |
Glasgow
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 40.56 % | 27.65 % | 10.82 % | 3.21 % | 13.45 % | 2.58 % | 1.72 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 77,406 | 52,766 | 20,639 | 6,133 | 25,668 | 4,931 | 3,278 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 7,741 | 52,766 | 20,639 | 6,133 | 25,668 | 4,931 | 3,278 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 7,741 | 26,383 | 20,639 | 6,133 | 25,668 | 4,931 | 3,278 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 7,741 | 17,589 | 20,639 | 6,133 | 25,668 | 4,931 | 3,278 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 7,741 | 17,589 | 20,639 | 6,133 | 12,834 | 4,931 | 3,278 |
5th divisor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 7,741 | 17,589 | 10,320 | 6,133 | 12,834 | 4,931 | 3,278 |
6th divisor | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 7,741 | 13,192 | 10,320 | 6,133 | 12,834 | 4,931 | 3,278 |
7th divisor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 7,741 | 10,553 | 10,320 | 6,133 | 12,834 | 4,931 | 3,278 |
8th divisor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 7,741 | 10,553 | 10,320 | 6,133 | 8,556 | 4,931 | 3,278 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Anas Sarwar |
2 | Labour | Johann Lamont |
3 | Green | Patrick Harvie |
4 | Conservative | Adam Tomkins |
5 | Labour | James Kelly |
6 | Labour | Pauline McNeill |
7 | Green | Zara Kitson |
Highlands and Islands
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 41.38 % | 9.77 % | 17.62 % | 13.10 % | 9.77 % | 7.73 % | 0.64 % |
Constituency seats | 6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Votes | 79,244 | 18,701 | 33,742 | 25,086 | 18,706 | 14,805 | 1,225 |
1st divisor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 11,321 | 18,701 | 33,742 | 8,362 | 18,706 | 14,805 | 1,225 |
2nd divisor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 11,321 | 18,701 | 16,871 | 8,362 | 18,706 | 14,805 | 1,225 |
3rd divisor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 11,321 | 18,701 | 16,871 | 8,362 | 9,353 | 14,805 | 1,225 |
4th divisor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 11,321 | 9,351 | 16,871 | 8,362 | 9,353 | 14,805 | 1,225 |
5th divisor | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 11,321 | 9,351 | 11,247 | 8,362 | 9,353 | 14,805 | 1,225 |
6th divisor | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
6th allocation | 11,321 | 9,351 | 11,247 | 8,362 | 9,353 | 7,403 | 1,225 |
7th divisor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
7th allocation | 9,906 | 9,351 | 11,247 | 8,362 | 9,353 | 7,403 | 1,225 |
8th divisor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
8th allocation | 9,906 | 9,351 | 8,436 | 8,362 | 9,353 | 7,403 | 1,225 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Douglas Ross |
2 | Green | John Finnie |
3 | Labour | Rhoda Grant |
4 | Conservative | Edward Mountain |
5 | UKIP | David Coburn |
6 | SNP | Maree Todd |
7 | Conservative | Donald Cameron |
Lothian
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 36.79 % | 18.14 % | 19.03 % | 6.41 % | 15.78 % | 2.85 % | 1.01 % |
Constituency seats | 7 | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — |
Votes | 103,339 | 50,969 | 53,453 | 17,996 | 44,322 | 8,000 | 2,847 |
1st divisor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 12,917 | 50,969 | 26,727 | 17,996 | 22,161 | 8,000 | 2,847 |
2nd divisor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 12,917 | 25,485 | 26,727 | 17,996 | 22,161 | 8,000 | 2,847 |
3rd divisor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 12,917 | 25,485 | 17,818 | 17,996 | 22,161 | 8,000 | 2,847 |
4th divisor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 12,917 | 16,990 | 17,818 | 17,996 | 22,161 | 8,000 | 2,847 |
5th divisor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 12,917 | 16,990 | 17,818 | 17,996 | 14,774 | 8,000 | 2,847 |
6th divisor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 12,917 | 16,990 | 17,818 | 8,998 | 14,774 | 8,000 | 2,847 |
7th divisor | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 12,917 | 16,990 | 13,363 | 8,998 | 14,774 | 8,000 | 2,847 |
8th divisor | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 12,917 | 12,742 | 13,363 | 8,998 | 14,774 | 8,000 | 2,847 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Kezia Dugdale |
2 | Conservative | Ruth Davidson |
3 | Labour | Neil Findlay |
4 | Green | Andy Wightman |
5 | Liberal Democrat | Alex Cole-Hamilton |
6 | Conservative | Miles Briggs |
7 | Labour | Sarah Boyack |
Mid Scotland and Fife
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 40.43 % | 17.37 % | 21.96 % | 6.49 % | 8.37 % | 4.64 % | 0.75 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 108,683 | 46,691 | 59,020 | 17,436 | 22,494 | 12,461 | 2,007 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 10,868 | 46,691 | 59,020 | 17,436 | 22,494 | 12,461 | 2,007 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 10,868 | 46,691 | 29,510 | 17,436 | 22,494 | 12,461 | 2,007 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 10,868 | 23,346 | 29,510 | 17,436 | 22,494 | 12,461 | 2,007 |
4th divisor | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 10,868 | 23,346 | 19,673 | 17,436 | 22,494 | 12,461 | 2,007 |
5th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 10,868 | 15,564 | 19,673 | 17,436 | 22,494 | 12,461 | 2,007 |
6th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 10,868 | 15,564 | 19,673 | 17,436 | 11,247 | 12,461 | 2,007 |
7th divisor | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 10,868 | 15,564 | 14,755 | 17,436 | 11,247 | 12,461 | 2,007 |
8th divisor | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 10,868 | 15,564 | 14,755 | 8,718 | 11,247 | 12,461 | 2,007 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Murdo Fraser |
2 | Labour | Alex Rowley |
3 | Conservative | Liz Smith |
4 | Labour | Claire Baker |
5 | Green | Mark Ruskell |
6 | Conservative | Dean Lockhart |
7 | Liberal Democrat | Willie Rennie |
North East
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 46.85 % | 11.33 % | 21.80 % | 7.50 % | 7.67 % | 3.89 % | 0.96 % |
Constituency seats | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 131,091 | 31,713 | 61,000 | 20,986 | 21,449 | 10,876 | 2,684 |
1st divisor | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 11,917 | 31,713 | 61,000 | 20,986 | 21,449 | 10,876 | 2,684 |
2nd divisor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 11,917 | 31,713 | 30,500 | 20,986 | 21,449 | 10,876 | 2,684 |
3rd divisor | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 11,917 | 15,857 | 30,500 | 20,986 | 21,449 | 10,876 | 2,684 |
4th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 11,917 | 15,857 | 20,333 | 20,986 | 21,449 | 10,876 | 2,684 |
5th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 11,917 | 15,857 | 20,333 | 20,986 | 10,725 | 10,876 | 2,684 |
6th divisor | 11 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 11,917 | 15,857 | 20,333 | 10,493 | 10,725 | 10,876 | 2,684 |
7th divisor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 11,917 | 15,857 | 15,250 | 10,493 | 10,725 | 10,876 | 2,684 |
8th divisor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 11,917 | 10,571 | 15,250 | 10,493 | 10,725 | 10,876 | 2,684 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Conservative | Alex Johnstone |
2 | Labour | Jenny Marra |
3 | Conservative | Alexander Burnett |
4 | Green | Maggie Chapman |
5 | Liberal Democrat | Mike Rumbles |
6 | Conservative | Ross Thomson |
7 | Labour | Lewis MacDonald |
South
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 35.91 % | 17.21 % | 29.69 % | 5.88 % | 5.94 % | 4.80 % | 0.57 % |
Constituency seats | 5 | — | 4 | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 106,429 | 51,006 | 87,988 | 17,428 | 17,591 | 14,239 | 1,678 |
1st divisor | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 17,738 | 51,006 | 17,598 | 17,428 | 17,591 | 14,239 | 1,678 |
2nd divisor | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 17,738 | 25,503 | 17,598 | 17,428 | 17,591 | 14,239 | 1,678 |
3rd divisor | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 17,738 | 17,002 | 17,598 | 17,428 | 17,591 | 14,239 | 1,678 |
4th divisor | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 15,204 | 17,002 | 17,598 | 17,428 | 17,591 | 14,239 | 1,678 |
5th divisor | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 15,204 | 17,002 | 14,665 | 17,428 | 17,591 | 14,239 | 1,678 |
6th divisor | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 15,204 | 17,002 | 14,665 | 17,428 | 8,796 | 14,239 | 1,678 |
7th divisor | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 15,204 | 17,002 | 14,665 | 8,714 | 8,796 | 14,239 | 1,678 |
8th divisor | 7 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 15,204 | 12,752 | 14,665 | 8,714 | 8,796 | 14,239 | 1,678 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Iain Gray |
2 | Labour | Claudia Beamish |
3 | SNP | Joan McAlpine |
4 | Conservative | Rachael Hamilton |
5 | Green | Sarah Beattie-Smith |
6 | Liberal Democrat | Jim Hume |
7 | Labour | Colin Smyth |
West
View full constituency and list results from this region
SNP | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dem | Green | UKIP | RISE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote share | 39.69 % | 24.29 % | 21.17 % | 3.84 % | 6.30 % | 3.19 % | 1.53 % |
Constituency seats | 9 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Votes | 109,256 | 66,854 | 58,271 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
1st divisor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1st allocation | 10,926 | 66,854 | 29,136 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
2nd divisor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2nd allocation | 10,926 | 33,427 | 29,136 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
3rd divisor | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3rd allocation | 10,926 | 22,285 | 29,136 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
4th divisor | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
4th allocation | 10,926 | 22,285 | 19,424 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
5th divisor | 10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
5th allocation | 10,926 | 16,714 | 19,424 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
6th divisor | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
6th allocation | 10,926 | 16,714 | 14,568 | 10,561 | 17,341 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
7th divisor | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
7th allocation | 10,926 | 16,714 | 14,568 | 10,561 | 8,671 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
8th divisor | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
8th allocation | 10,926 | 13,371 | 14,568 | 10,561 | 8,671 | 8,781 | 4,217 |
Party | Candidate | |
---|---|---|
1 | Labour | Jackie Baillie |
2 | Labour | Neil Bibby |
3 | Conservative | Jamie Greene |
4 | Labour | Mary Fee |
5 | Conservative | Maurice Golden |
6 | Green | Ross Greer |
7 | Labour | Ken Macintosh |